Andrew Luck has lived up to all the expectations, and his Indianapolis Colts are 6-4 and in line to make the playoffs this season.
The next step for Luck's Colts is to beat the Buffalo Bills, whose 4-6 record has the team reeling and trying its best to claw back into the playoff race.
The Bills could cut the gap between themselves and the final wildcard spot in the AFC to just a single games with a win on Sunday, but they must travel to Indianapolis to do so.
The Bills have struggled against good teams this season, with the combined record of the teams Buffalo has beaten being 11-29 this season and no team having a better record than 4-6.
With playoffs hopes on the line, these two teams will square off in Indy on Sunday.
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium
When: Sunday, Nov. 25 at 1 p.m. ET
Live Stream: NFL.com
Spread: Indianapolis -3.5 (via 5Dimes)
Even though the Bills have a long week after playing on Thursday Night Football, this may be generous.
The Colts are coming off an embarrassing loss to the New England Patriots and are going to be angry. Now they are trying to make a statement against a Bills team that is banged up and probably couldn't win this game at full health.
I'm definitely taking the over here.
Over/Under: 52 (via Bovada)
Another area in which I'm taking the over.
Both of these teams have solid offenses that have the potential to put up a lot of points, and neither defense is particularly threatening.
Unless both teams start turning the ball over more often than usual, this should be a high-scoring affair.
Buffalo Injury Report (via Yahoo! as of Nov. 22, 2012)
|Eric Wood C||Probable||Knee|
|Kyle Williams DT||Probable||Ankle|
|Aaron Williams CB||Out||Knee|
|Mario Williams DE||Probable||Wrist, knee|
|C.J. Spiller RB||Probable||Shoulder|
|Leodis McKelvin CB||Probable||Groin|
|Chris Kelsay DE||Out||Neck|
|Fred Jackson RB||Questionable||Concussion|
|Marcell Dareus DT||Probable||Shoulder, hamstring|
|Mark Anderson DE||Out||Knee|
Indianapolis Injury Report (via Yahoo! as of Nov. 22, 2012)
|Robert Mathis LB||Probable||Back|
|Winston Justice T||Probable||Knee|
|Donald Brown RB||Probable||Knee|
|Coby Fleener TE||Out||Shoulder|
|Vontae Davis CB||Out||Knee|
Buffalo RB C.J. Spiller
Even with Fred Jackson supposedly returning, Buffalo's offense is about to become the C.J. Spiller Show.
Spiller is a very talented running back with home-run potential, and going against the 22nd-ranked run defense of the Colts has to help.
The Colts are ranked No. 25 against fantasy running backs, giving up over 18 points per week and surrendering three rushing touchdowns the last three weeks.
Spiller should break off a huge rushing touchdown today, and if he does, he will be worth playing for sure.
Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck
In general, Buffalo's defense is pitiful, and that holds true for the pass defense as well.
Luck has been playing well as of late, throwing for 994 yards in his last three games and putting up great fantasy numbers, including 25 points against the Miami Dolphins two weeks ago.
The Bills defense has done even worse against fantasy quarterbacks than the Dolphins this season, and I would be surprised if Luck put up less than 20 points this week.
Key to Victory: Turnovers
This is going to be a high-scoring game, and defense will be at a premium. Neither team is likely to shut down the other, which makes turnovers even more crucial in this game.
If either team can string together a few takeaways, it will give itself a much better chance of winning this game.
The Colts are simply a more talented team, and I see Luck and Vick Ballard making an offensive statement in this game.
Look for the Colts to blow the Bills out, just like every other playoff contender.
Final Score: Indianapolis 37, Buffalo 21