Last-Minute Odds and Picks Against the Spread for NFL Week 11

Zach Kruse@@zachkruse2Senior Analyst INovember 18, 2012

Last-Minute Odds and Picks Against the Spread for NFL Week 11

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    Looking to place a last minute bet against the spread for Week 11 of the NFL season? You've come to the right place. 

    While there's no formula for correctly picking games, using betting trends and recent performances helps give a more clear picture for each spread.

    In the following slides, we'll take you through the trends and history of each Week 11 matchup to help you decide an against-the-spread winner.

    Note: Each line is taken from ESPN.com's aggregation of sites, current through Sunday morning.

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-9.5)

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    The Cardinals (1-2 against the spread away) have lost back-to-back games by at least 10 points against good teams (San Francisco, Green Bay). The bye week helps Arizona, but a trip to Atlanta (where the Falcons are 4-0) does not. 

    Pick ATS: Atlanta 

Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys (-9.0)

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    Tony Romo is a perfect 13-0 at home in November, and the Cowboys really can't afford to lose a home game to a 2-7 Browns team. But look at the betting trends: Dallas is 0-3 against the spread at home and 0-2 as the home favorite. Browns lose the game but cover the nine-point spread. 

    Pick ATS: Cleveland

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+3.0)

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    The Packers are playing without three Pro Bowl starters (Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson and Greg Jennings) and have just a 1-2 record against the spread as a road favorite. However, Green Bay has won 19 of 22 games against the Lions since 2001, and Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 25 touchdowns and just one interception over his last eight dome games. Rodgers' dominance indoors helps the Packers barely cover a close line. 

    Pick ATS: Green Bay

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5)

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    The Chiefs have been beaten by 10 or more points in six of their eight losses this season, and the Bengals are coming off their best win of the season (31-13 over the New York Giants). But turnovers are the real reason to pick Cincinnati to cover, as the Bengals forced the Giants into four in Week 10 and the Chiefs remain the NFL's worst (30 turnovers in nine games) at hanging onto the football. 

    Pick ATS: Cincinnati

New York Jets at St. Louis Rams (-3.5)

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    The Jets are just 1-2 against the spread away from the Meadowlands this season, while the Rams have covered in six of nine weeks. And although we don't know how St. Louis will handle the favorite role (first time this season), we do know that the Jets offense is one of the worst units in football. New York will have to play lights-out defense to cover in St. Louis. 

    Pick ATS: St. Louis 

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (-3.5)

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    This game really couldn't get uglier in terms of betting trends in 2012. The Eagles are a horrific 2-7 (including 1-3 away) against the spread this season, while the Redskins are 0-3 as the favorite—a role they hold on Sunday.

    If you have to make a call here, don't forget about Eagles running back LeSean McCoy. He went for over 120 yards with a score last season in Washington, and it's likely the Eagles go conservative in Nick Foles' first ever NFL start.

    Pick ATS: Philadelphia

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (+1.0)

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    The Bucs have been one of the safest bets against the spread this season, covering in seven of nine games. That record includes a perfect 4-0 mark away from home. 

    For the Panthers (1-4 against the spread at home) to break their trends, the run game has to be the offensive engine. That could be tough sledding, as Tampa Bay has the NFL's No. 1 rush defense. All signs points to a big Buccaneers cover. 

    Pick ATS: Tampa Bay

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-15.0)

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    If we've learned anything this season, it's that these huge lines—especially inside the division—are risky bets. Even in this matchup, where everything about it—records, stats, personnel—screams big blowout, the Jaguars are the safer bet to cover. In fact, Jacksonville has already covered a big line this season (+16 at Green Bay). The Texans only had a winning margin of 17 total points in two games last season. 

    Pick ATS: Jacksonville

New Orleans Saints at Oakland Raiders (+5.0)

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    The Saints started the season 0-3 against the spread, but since then, this team has rattled off covers in five of six weeks. Oakland, on the other hand, has covered just once in the last three games. 

    The kicker here is Drew Brees, who hasn't lost against the Raiders over his last six tries. Over that span, he has thrown for 13 touchdowns and zero interceptions. He'll ensure the Saints are at least a touchdown better, even on the road in Oakland. 

    Prediction: New Orleans

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-8.5)

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    The Broncos have been automatic when picked as the favorite this season. Five times out of five, and three times out of three at home, Denver has covered the favorite spread. A big reason for that home dominance is Peyton Manning, who has 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions (115.3 passer rating) in Denver this season. 

    Pick ATS: Denver

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-9.5)

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    Maybe Andrew Luck can't go into New England and pull off the impossible (no rookie quarterback has won there since 1995), but cover this big spread? It's certainly possible. The Patriots are 0-3 (Buffalo, New York, Arizona) when it comes to covering spreads above a touchdown this season, while the Colts are 4-2 against the spread as an underdog. 

    Pick ATS: Indianapolis 

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)

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    Ravens-Steelers has been one of the NFL's closest rivalries recently, with five of the last seven games decided by a field goal or less. The line has moved from +3.0 to +3.5, which puts the push out of the question. Betting against the history is risky (a three-point finish goes to the Steelers, win or lose), but the Ravens are facing a backup quarterback with a chance to all but seal the division. 

    Pick ATS: Baltimore

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-7.0)

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    This line has grown by two points for the 49ers over the course of this week, which has turned a solid bet for San Francisco into a more shaky one. In the end, the Bears are still starting a backup quarterback who really struggled against a good defense last Sunday night, while the 49ers may have their starter available. That should keep the 49ers as the safer bet, even with a seven-point line. 

    Pick ATS: San Francisco