Week 11 NFL Picks: Favorites That Won't Cover the Spread

Rick WeinerFeatured ColumnistNovember 18, 2012

PHILADELPHIA, PA - NOVEMBER 11: Quarterback Tony Romo #9 of the Dallas Cowboys looks to pass against the Philadelphia Eagles during a game at Lincoln Financial Field on November 11, 2012 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Cowboys defeated the Eagles 38-23. (Photo by Rich Schultz /Getty Images)
Rich Schultz/Getty Images

It's officially crunch time in the NFL as we get set to dive headfirst into Week 11 action, where games have significant implications in divisional races and the playoff picture continues to take shape.

Each win and loss makes things that much clearer, and with so much riding on the line, nobody wants to find themselves on the losing end of the equation.

The same goes for making your weekly picks—you don't want to wind up on the losing end, and more often than not, we tend to take favorites who have what seem like reasonable point spreads that they are likely to cover.

Not so fast, friends. A handful of favorites aren't going to cover these "reasonable" spreads this week.

Here's who you should think twice about before locking in your Week 11 picks.


Indianapolis Colts (6-3) at New England Patriots (6-3)

Spread: New England -9 (per Covers.com)

Andrew Luck continues to prove the Colts were correct in making him the first overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft, leading Indianapolis to wins in five of their last six games and more importantly, into the thick of the playoff race in the AFC.

New England keeps winning games thanks to Tom Brady and a potent offense, but their pass defense is a liability, and with Luck completing more than 64 percent of his passes over the past four games, that's something that Luck can—and will—exploit.

Indy's defense isn't great either, and they'll have trouble keeping Brady out of the end zone. But this game is going to be much closer than two possessions as the spread says it'll be.

New England wins, 31-27.


Cleveland Browns (2-7) at Dallas Cowboys (4-5)

Spread: Dallas -7.5 (per Covers.com)

Cleveland might not be a great—or even good—team, but Dallas is about as inconsistent a squad as there is in the NFL, looking unstoppable one week and completely inept the next.

Dallas struggles to run the ball, which means that the onus will be on QB Tony Romo to lead the Cowboys to victory at home.

Only problem is that the Browns secondary, led by Joe Haden and Sheldon Brown is solid, and they'll give the Cowboys' receivers—Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Kevin Ogletree—fits all day long.

The Browns have had nearly two weeks to prepare for this game, and it screams "trap game" for the Cowboys, who are playing at home and feeling good about themselves after beating the Eagles on the road last week.

Dallas will hold on for the win, but at 27-24, they won't come close to covering the spread.


Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) at Washington Redskins (3-6)

Spread: Washington -3.5 (per Covers.com)

Something's got to give in our nation's capital when two teams tied for last place in the NFC East—and two squads who haven't seen a win in weeks—get together on Sunday.

Washington, losers of three straight, have been awful against the pass. allowing more than 300 yards and two touchdowns per game through the air while the Eagles, losers of five in a row, are giving a rookie QB, Nick Foles, his first career start in place of the injured Michael Vick. (h/t ESPN)

What Foles accomplished against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 10 in place of Vick—completing 22-of-32 passes for 219 yards with one touchdown, one interception and a lost fumble—was impressive given that Dallas is one of the best at defending the pass in the NFL.

If Foles can find success against a solid pass defense, he'll have a field day against a weak one.

Philadelphia wins, 31-24.