NFL Picks Week 11: Underdogs That Are Locks to Cover

Ethan Grant@DowntownEGAnalyst INovember 16, 2012

TAMPA, FL - NOVEMBER 11: Quarterback Philip Rivers #17 hands off to running back Ryan Mathews #24 of the San Diego Chargers during play against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers November 11, 2012 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images)
Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images

There are some large spreads to cover for NFL favorites this weekends, ones that don't bode well for the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons, among others.

It's Week 11, and by now you're probably deadlocked into your ways on how you enjoy picking games against the spread. If you're into underdogs, this would be the week to turn a profit.

New England is a pretty substantial favorite on the road to cover, a tall task given Indianapolis' propensity to winning this year. In Atlanta and Denver, those favorites also could be looking ahead past the task at hand with more than touchdown-favorite odds.

Here's a look at three games to go lay your money down on. These underdogs might not come away winners, but they are safe bets to make things more interesting than these money lines currently suggest to the average fan.

Note: All lines according to


New England (-9) at Indianapolis

The Colts are one of the best stories of the season, and the only blemish so far appears to be the blowout loss to the New York Jets. That anomaly aside, the Colts have played tough, physical football and Andrew Luck has been a man among men in his rookie campaign.

Both teams are 6-3, there's playoff implications on the line and the Patriots are on the road. Yet, the oddsmakers feel that the schedule has been too light and we don't know what kind of Colts team this really is.

Well, we're about to find out.

I don't blame Vegas for taking New England by a large margin, but I'm in the camp that thinks Indianapolis is for real. They are the Cinderella story we crave for, and they have the passing attack and emotional advantage (Chuck Pagano) to get it done. 

This game means more to Indy than it does to New England, especially with the rest of the AFC East treading water. It's going to be a tight one, and this is the biggest lock of the bunch.


San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-8)

San Diego all but had this game won before the epic comeback that will likely be the story for both of these team's seasons when they met in Week 6. However, don't count out Philip Rivers and the Chargers just yet.

Norv Turner is known for late-season heroics, and despite another loss to Tampa Bay in Week 10, the offense is playing quite well. Same goes for Denver, which is fresh off a 36-14 win over the Carolina Panthers.

In what promises to be a shootout for the ages, Rivers and Manning battle it out to the final horn. A field goal wins this game for either team. Could it be that Norv Turner saves his job yet again by winning a marquee game like this one?

Even if he doesn't, the Chargers will cover an eight-point spread.


Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-10)

History would suggest that Atlanta would be mad after losing for the first time this season and take it out on the lowly Cards. Not so fast, my friend! (Thanks, Lee Corso!)

This Arizona team has one of the most underrated players in the league in Patrick Peterson, and a slew of other playmakers on defense to make up for the struggles since Kevin Kolb departed the lineup after an injury.

Atlanta continues to play close games this year. Coming off a bye, Arizona will be rested and ready to travel to Georgia for this matchup. The Falcons can't let this game slip through their fingers, but I don't think they are the type of team to just blow teams away with huge point totals.

Arizona keeps it close, and makes another underdog a winner on Sunday in Week 11.


Ethan Grant is a featured columnist for B/R's Breaking News Team.