Week 11 NFL Picks: 5 Value Options for Sunday's Games

Darin PikeContributor INovember 16, 2012

The Saints have caught fire in recent weeks. It will carry over this weekend.
The Saints have caught fire in recent weeks. It will carry over this weekend.Chris Graythen/Getty Images

I've looked at the spread, over/under and money lines for every Week 11 NFL game. I've come up with picks for five of Sunday games that are most worth consideration.

Many NFL fans find the games are a bit more intriguing with something riding on the outcome, be it a friendly wager, office pool or legal gambling outlets. The trick to wagering is finding games that give great value.

Following are five games that deserve attention, with a total of seven lucky bets. Odds are taken from OddsShark.


5. New Orleans at Oakland

When: Sunday, Nov. 18 at 4:25 p.m. ET

Over/Under: 54.5

Spread: Saints (-5.5)

Score Prediction: New Orleans 48, Oakland 34

Perhaps this matchup should be higher, but I wanted to start off with a game that offers a chance to double-dip.

After back-to-back wins against Jacksonville and Kansas City, I thought the Raiders were ready to make some noise in the AFC. Then they lost Darren McFadden and forgot how to play defense.

Oakland's offense should be able to put up some points this weekend. The Saints have been a bit more stingy with points the last two weeks but they still have work to do.

The Ravens scored 55 points on Oakland last week. While their offense is good, it falls short of Drew Brees and the Saints'.

The over is a great value proposition and the spread is no slouch. Both of these offenses are capable of scoring a lot of points and the defenses haven't been accused of being stingy.


4. Jacksonville at Houston

When: Sunday, Nov. 18 at 1 p.m. ET

Spread: Houston (-15.5)

Score Prediction: Houston 28, Jacksonville 7

The Jacksonville Jaguars drafted Blaine Gabbert thinking he would be their quarterback of the future. They also made him the QB of the present, which should have fans a little concerned.

Gabbert needed time to adjust to the NFL and to be given offensive weapons to work with. He didn't get either.

The Houston Texans, on the other hand, are the epitome of a team with playmakers on both sides of the ball. Their balance on offense and defense will make it difficult for opponents to compete with them.

Jacksonville isn't a team that can.


3. Cincinnati at Kansas City

When: Sunday, Nov. 18 at 1 p.m. ET

Spread: Bengals (-3.5)

Score Prediction: Cincinnati 31, Kansas City 17

The Cincinnati Bengals realized their 2012 season was about to be doomed. Facing the suddenly struggling New York Giants, Marvin Lewis dialed up the offense and secured a 31-13 win.

Arrowhead Stadium used to be the toughest stadium to visit in the NFL but the Chiefs are struggling too much for the fans to make an impact.

Andy Dalton will be airing the ball out to A.J. Green early and often and BenJarvus Green-Ellis will be able to keep the Chiefs honest. 

The Chiefs have lost six-straight and are 2-4 against the spread during that time. 


2. San Diego at Denver 

When: Sunday, Nov. 18 at 4:25 p.m. ET

Over/Under: 48.5

Spread: Broncos (-8)

Score Prediction: Denver 38, San Diego 24

This is a two-for-one for those that don't mind putting too many eggs in one basket. The Broncos have been producing on offense and the Chargers will come out swinging, as they have nothing to lose.

Denver's offense has been almost unstoppable since their loss to the New England Patriots. Peyton Manning and his targets are on the same page, scoring in the 30's in each of the prior four games.

Take the Broncos and the over in this matchup.


1. Tampa Bay at Carolina

When: Sunday, Nov. 18 at 1 p.m. ET

Spread: Buccaneers (-2)

Score Prediction: Tampa Bay 28, Carolina 17

There is typically one or two lines a week that really surprise me. Normally it is an over/under that seems too good to be true but pays out nicely. 

This weekend, though, it is a narrow spread.

Tampa Bay's offense has sparked in recent weeks with Josh Freeman hitting receivers and Doug Martin pounding out yards. Their balanced attack will be too much for Carolina's defense.

Tampa Bay has improved well beyond the team that secured a 16-10 win over the Panthers to start the season. 


Darin Pike is a writer for Bleacher Report's Breaking News Team and a Featured Columnist covering the NFL and the Seattle Seahawks.