NFL Picks Week 11: Underdogs That Will Have No Problem Covering Spread

Rob GoldbergFeatured ColumnistNovember 15, 2012

CHICAGO, IL - OCTOBER 22:  Matt Forte #22 of the Chicago Bears tries to hold off Justin Durant #52 of the Detroit Lions at Soldier Field on October 22, 2012 in Chicago, Illinois. The Bears defeated the Lions 13-7.  (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

It is amazing that after 10 weeks of the NFL season, there are still so many misguided betting lines.

Many teams have proven to be better than their preseason projections, but they still do not get enough respect from casual gamblers.

However, this is good news for those looking to make a few bucks. These underdogs might not be able to all win straight up, but they should cover the spread on Sunday.

Note: All lines courtesy of Vegas Insider


Indianapolis Colts (+9) over New England Patriots

If Mark Sanchez and Ryan Fitzpatrick are able to each finish with more than 320 passing yards against the Patriots, there is no reason that Andrew Luck cannot do the same.

The porous defense of the Patriots has allowed inferior teams to stay in the game when in reality they should be blowouts. Unfortunately for New England, the Colts are no longer an inferior team.

Indianapolis has won four straight games and is in position to make the playoffs if the season ended today. While the recent wins have been against weaker foes, the team is brimming with confidence and should be able to carry the momentum toward a big game in Foxboro.

Many sites have this spread in the double-digits. Even if the Colts fall behind early, they should be able to throw consistently and keep this game close enough to cover the spread.


Chicago Bears (+5) over San Francisco 49ers

Both Alex Smith and Jay Cutler suffered concussions last week. While a battle of backups would be less appealing for Monday Night Football, it is unlikely there will be a lot of scoring regardless of who plays quarterback.

The 49ers and Bears are the No. 1 and No. 2 scoring defenses in the NFL, respectively. This game is certain to be a low-scoring struggle, and a single play on any side of the football is likely to decide the game.

If Smith plays, the Bears will look to do what the New York Giants did: put pressure on the quarterback and force turnovers. The former No. 1 pick was sacked four times and threw three interceptions in that game.

These are two things that Chicago does very well, and the team has proven time and time again that it can score just as easily from the defensive side as offensively. 

The Bears offense will not have to do much to be successful in this competitive game. 


Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) over Washington Redskins

It is difficult to trust the third-round rookie quarterback in his first career start on the road. However, this is as good of a matchup as you can ask for in the NFL.

Nick Foles is likely to get the start, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN, assuming Michael Vick is unable to play. In his first career game, he completed 68.8 percent of his 32 passes against the solid pass defense of the Dallas Cowboys.

In his second appearance, he will face the Redskins, which is one of only three teams that allow more than 300 passing yards per game.

They also do not put much pressure on the quarterback, with only the Oakland Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars totaling fewer sacks this season. This will help mask the Eagles' offensive line struggles.

Foles will have time to throw and should be able to defeat a team that has only won one of its last 10 home games.