At this point, we know who's good and who's not. We know which teams have the best chances of sticking around for a while in the postseason and which teams are likely to be headed home early.
But that doesn't mean that there aren't going to be some upsets on the horizon this week.
Here's a look at some of the teams that are most likely to score big upsets in Week 11. You can see a full schedule of Week 11 games here.
All lines via OddsShark.
Detroit Lions (+ 3.5)
vs. Green Bay Packers
It's completely unsurprising that the Packers are going to be favored in this one. They may have started off the season at a jarring 2-3, but since their somewhat stunning Week 5 loss to Indianapolis, Aaron Rodgers & Co. have reeled off four consecutive wins—one of which came over the mighty Houston Texans in Week 6.
But don't count out the Lions, especially at home. They may have dealt with a slew of injuries this season and some offensive inconsistencies, but they may be able to catch the Packers off guard as the latter return from their bye week. After last season's promising campaign, many of us expected this team to be much better than it has been, but things have looked much more promising over the last five weeks (3-2) than over the first four (1-3).
Plus, Matthew Stafford's top passing offense could give the Packers' iffy pass defense some trouble, and Green Bay hasn't allowed fewer than 15 points in a game since Week 3—even against bad teams like St. Louis and Jacksonville.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+ 1.5)
at Carolina Panthers
The Panthers may be at home, but there still haven't been too many positives with their game for the better part of 2012. They've registered just two wins this season—one over New Orleans in Week 2 and one over Washington in Week 9—and they've dropped six of their last seven. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is very much on the upswing, somehow compiling an over-.500 record even after starting the year 1-3.
And the Bucs have beaten some good teams this year—at home and on the road. They scored a big 36-17 win at Minnesota in Week 8 and took down the quickly-fading Chargers 34-24 at home last week. Don't look now, but they've won three in a row and four of their last five, and Carolina doesn't even look like a team that deserves to be favored—even at home.
Last week, Josh Freeman was kind of excellent, finishing with 210 yards, two TDs and zero interceptions. Cam Newton, on the other hand, threw two picks and two touchdowns and was sacked a whopping seven times by Denver in a 36-14 loss. The Bucs should very much be able to extend their winning streak to four this week.
Indianapolis Colts (+8)
at New England Patriots
Yes, the Patriots are playing at home. And sometimes, coming off a game in which they clearly weren't at their best, they really show up to play the following week.
But the Patriots also tend to struggle notoriously against quarterbacks they've never seen before. Look at what Russell Wilson did to them in Week 6. And the same exact problems that have plagued the Patriots all season cropped up against the lowly Buffalo Bills last week: an inability to close out a game and a secondary that can't stop anybody, even one of the worst pass offenses in the league.
Andrew Luck has been very good this season, and he's been very good lately. He has seven touchdowns in his last four games and has only thrown two picks. The Colts are riding a four-game winning streak and are only two games off the mighty Houston Texans in the AFC South. This is a good passing offense coming up against a bad pass defense, and that could be bad news for the Patriots, even if they're playing at Gillette.