NFL Week 11 Picks: Predicting Stone-Cold Locks Against the Spread

Alex Kay@AlexPKayCorrespondent INovember 15, 2012

LANDOVER, MD - NOVEMBER 04: Quarterback Robert Griffin III #10 of the Washington Redskins eludes defensive tackle Dwan Edwards #92 of the Carolina Panthers during the fourth quarter of the Panthers 21-13 win at FedExField on November 4, 2012 in Landover, Maryland.  (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Rob Carr/Getty Images

It’s hard to believe, but over half the NFL season has come and gone, which is making it extremely hard for bettors to find good value when wagering against the spread.

Vegas simply has a read on most of these teams and sets perfect lines that are almost impossible to pick a side for.

However, they seemed to leave a few doors open for some looking to make a profit, so let’s take a peek at the best bets of Week 11.


WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-3.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

Robert Grifffin III and the ‘Skins are coming off a much-needed bye week and are looking to snap a three-game losing streak. They were expecting to face a tough Eagles team with Michael Vick under center, but instead, they've been gift-wrapped an inexperienced rookie signal-caller.

Nick Foles will likely be making his first career NFL start in this one, and Philly is somehow only getting 3.5 points.

While the University of Arizona product did perform well after taking over for Vick in the second quarter of Week 10, the Cowboys simply ran rampant and only allowed Foles to complete one big play (a 44-yard TD pass to Jeremy Maclin).

We don’t think that Eagles coach Andy Reid can dial up a strong enough game plan to keep this one within a TD.


Green Bay Packers (-3.5) over DETROIT LIONS

The Packers are another team that sorely needed a week off and fortunately had one in Week 10. Now they have a tough matchup with an NFC North opponent, but they're favored on the road for a reason.

Detroit can’t seem to get above .500 and finds new ways to beat itself seemingly every other week. As long as the Packers can avoid any more injuries, they should come out hot after the break and score at will on this pedestrian Lions defense.

Lay the points here and take a Packers team that is looking to start a sizzling second half to the season.


Miami Dolphins (+1.5) over BUFFALO BILLS

While the ‘Phins took a shellacking in Week 10 against the Tennessee Titans, they aren’t going to have another performance like that again this year.

Their defense, widely regarded as one of the better units in the league, allowed Tennessee to score 37 points and couldn’t get any of the stops they needed. Reggie Bush, the team’s best offensive player, was benched in the first half for his second fumble in three weeks.

We expect the D to create some turnovers against Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills offense, while Bush has put together career performances (including a 203-yard game in Week 15 last year) against this opponent.

Take the points and go with Miami for an easy victory on Thursday Night Football.