NFL Week 11 Picks: Underdogs Sure to Beat the Spread

Rick WeinerFeatured ColumnistNovember 13, 2012

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - SEPTEMBER 16: Reggie Wayne #87 of the Indianapolis Colts celebrates after a 30-yard touchdown reception from Andrew Luck #12 against the Minnesota Vikings during the first half of the game at Lucas Oil Stadium on September 16, 2012 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Week 10 of the NFL regular season brought with it a number of underdogs who defied the odds and walked away with a victory against foes that they simply weren't supposed to be able to hang with.

It's no surprise, it happens all the time, and Week 11 won't be any different, with a number of underdogs beating the odds—and the spread, though doing so won't necessarily result in victory as it did for the Cincinnati Bengals and New Orleans Saints in Week 10.

All lines courtesy of


Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots (-9.5)

Winners of five of their last six games (and four in a row), the Indianapolis Colts come into Gillette Stadium in Foxboro to take on a Patriots defense that was picked apart by Bills' QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who threw for 337 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in Buffalo's 37-31 loss in Week 10.

During the Colts' four-game winning streak, Andrew Luck has been completing 64 percent of his passes, throwing for 1,143 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. 

With the Patriots pass defense an absolute disaster and Luck getting better on a weekly basis, New England won't be able to pull away from the Colts despite Tom Brady's best efforts against the Colts defense.

Indianapolis isn't likely to win, but they won't be getting blown out in this one either, falling by no more than a touchdown.


Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons (-10)

Atlanta is coming off of their first loss of the season, 31-27 at the hands of the New Orleans Saints and is sure to be a motivated group entering Week 11, while Arizona is coming out of their bye week.

There's no question that the Falcons are the superior team, however, they've been favored by a touchdown or more in two games so far this season and failed to cover the spread in either one.

With two weeks to prepare for this game and the second-best pass defense in the NFL, Arizona will be able to keep this one somewhat close.

I like the Cardinals getting seven-and-a-half; I love them getting 10.



Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Redskins (-1.5)

Something's got to give in our nation's capital when two teams on extended losing streaks get together.

Washington, losers of three straight, has been awful against the pass. while the Eagles, losers of five in a row, are likely to go with rookie Nick Foles under center in place of the injured Michael Vick.

Foles will test the Redskins defense early and often in an attempt to create some running room for LeSean McCoy, while the Eagles defense hasn't been quite as awful as advertised.

Call it a gut feeling, but I like the Eagles to pull the upset in this one.