Bowl Projections 2012: Predicting Participants and Spreads for Each BCS Bowl
With Week 11 of the college football season in the books, it’s getting extremely close to bowl season.
A number of undefeated teams are vying for a spot in the National Championship game after Alabama was shockingly dethroned by Texas A&M. However, not all worthy candidates are going to get a crack at collegiate football’s biggest stage, and some are going to have to settle for a traditional bowl game.
Let’s take a look at which teams are projected to wind up in the prestigious BCS games following the 2012 season, and take it a step further by predicting a potential point spread for these hypothetical matchups.
BCS National Championship Game: Oregon vs. Kansas State
Projected Spread: Oregon -6.5
As it stands, the Ducks and Wildcats are going to be our national championship matchup.
If this happens, we fully expect that Oregon will be named the favorite by Vegas, as they are an extremely public-friendly team and have been dominant all season long.
Oregon will also be more tested by the time they reach this contest, as they must win the Pac-12 championship, while K-State gets in by winning the Big 12—a conference without a title game.
We don’t think this spread will go to a full touchdown, but should linger right around there.
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M
Projected Spread: Oklahoma -6
The Sooners are easily the best two-loss team in the nation, with their only losses coming against undefeated Notre Dame and Kansas State.
They’ll get a chance to prove that as they head into the Fiesta Bowl as a favorite against Texas A&M—a team that loves to play spoiler.
While the Aggies have a solid QB in Johnny Manziel—better known as Johnny Football—this solid OU squad could easily overwhelm them.
We like this line at a shade below a TD.
Rose Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Nebraska
Projected Spread: Notre Dame -9
Notre Dame is likely to get the shaft if they are one of the three unbeaten teams when the 2012 campaign ends.
The Fighting Irish just don’t possess the offensive firepower that the voters love to see and therefore get relegated to a matchup against the projected Big Ten winner, Nebraska.
If the Cornhuskers do manage to win their conference, they will head into the Rose Bowl as a double-digit underdog to the Irish.
We expect the sharps to bet that down and leave Notre Dame as a nine-point favorite by the time the contest kicks off.
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Clemson
Projected Spread: Georgia -10
Georgia could very well win the SEC but will have to settle for a Sugar Bowl appearance against the Clemson Tigers.
While the Tigers have been rolling since their early season loss to Florida State, this team doesn’t have what it takes to hang with the Bulldogs, and Vegas knows it.
We currently have UGA pegged as a 10-point favorite, but that could easily approach a two-touchdown margin as the game draws closer.
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Rutgers
Projected Spread: Florida State -14
In perhaps the most lopsided BCS bowl, Florida State would be an overwhelming favorite against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights.
FSU is widely projected to win the ACC and would face the Big East Champion, which happens to be a Rutgers team that lost to Kent State to end an undefeated bid.
If the Scarlet Knights can’t handle the Golden Flashes, there is no chance they can contain the Seminoles, and they are going to be a minimum 14-point ‘dog in the Orange Bowl.
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