All of their losses except the beat down the healthy UConn gave them were against teams which had no business on the same floor: Western Kentucky by 14, Minnesota by six on a neutral court, UNLV by one, and at Notre Dame by 33.
Since mid-February this team hasn’t lost, but they didn’t have to play Pitt or UConn. They are playing better but still not up to their ability. A B-level Cardinals team won the Big East regular and post-season crowns. If this team plays up to its full potential, their run in this tournament is going to be downright scary.
Memphis hasn’t lost since December, but with the exception of games at Tennessee and Gonzaga, they haven’t played anyone since December.
It’s also interesting in that Memphis has lost to the two Big East teams it’s faced: Syracuse by seven at home and Georgetown by nine in OT.
Tyreke Evans at the point has been magic for Memphis in their terrific run. Unlike Louisville, Memphis has found their A-game and has left a path of destruction against most of the teams it’s played.
In a game destined to become an instant classic, the only place I truly see an advantage is low post scoring. The Tigers get a lot of their points inside on offensive rebounds and hustle plays, while Louisville has players in the frontcourt like Earl Clark and Samardo Samuels who can create offense for themselves in a half-court set.
That gives the slightest of edges to Louisville.
In the other semifinal, it’s a complete contrast in philosophies.
Pittsburgh is the Rottweiler which smells blood and wants to rip you limb for limb while North Carolina is the winner of the Westminster Dog Show.
In this game Pitt’s fatal flaw emerges. They don’t get enough scoring out of their guards and don’t have any reliable shooting game to speak of. This makes it even more imperative that DeJuan Blair stay out of foul trouble.
And therein lies the problem. With the aggressiveness of Ty Lawson and Tyler Hansbrough it’s almost a foregone conclusion for Blair to get stuck on the bench.
With Blair as a nonfactor, the Panthers simply don’t have the firepower to hang with the Tar Heels.
Advancing to the final: Louisville, North Carolina
National Championship
Louisville can provide the defense while having the balanced scoring threats all over the floor to take down the Tar Heels. Earl Clark and F Terrence Williams are going to have a field day against G/F Danny Green and G Wayne Ellington.
Hansbrough will have a big game himself in his last as a college player but UNC will still come up a bit short.
The North Carolina team which started the season may have won this one. The injury to Marcus Ginyard killed their backcourt depth off the bench.
Louisville’s depth in the backcourt will net them a national championship.
In a way, since UNC is the team where everyone returned to get the title, this game will be what should’ve happened in last year’s final.
Louisville is playing as Memphis and this time a three pointer at the end won’t make any difference.
2009 National Champion: Louisville
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