Week 10 NFL Picks: High-Scoring Clashes Sure to Hit the Over
Every week, teams consistently go above their assigned overs. It's much harder, however, to pick which teams will do just that.
We'll make it easier and tell you which games are most likely to hit the over.
*all odds from VegasInsider.com*
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
The over for this game is set at 51.5. The Bills and Patriots should blow that out of the water.
The Pats have the fifth-ranked passing offense in football. The Bills, on the other hand, have the 24th-ranked pass defense, giving up 248 yards per game.
The Pats scored 52 points against the Bills in their first matchup. Tom Brady threw for 340 yards in the game.
The Bills in that game didn't fare too badly. They put up 28 points. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 350 yards and four touchdowns.
If that game is any indication, Sunday's clash will be high scoring. The Patriots will surely win; the Bills are a lost cause. But the Pats pass defense is not good, and New England will be scored upon.
Look for a high-octane game with plenty of scoring and little use for punters.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
This game is set at 53.5. That seems oddly low. The Saints average 305 passing yards per game, while the Falcons average 278 passing yards per game.
These are two high-scoring teams. The Saints have not scored fewer than 14 this season, while the Falcons haven't scored fewer than 19.
The Falcons have a decent defense, but the Saints cannot stop anything that moves. They have the worst rush defense, giving up 176.5 yards per game. They have the 29th-ranked pass defense, giving up 294 yards per game.
The Falcons will score a lot, and it's not inconceivable that they will put up more than 40. The Saints will run into a little resistance against the Falcons, but Drew Brees and company can score on anyone. Look for them to put up 30-plus points.
San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The over/under for this matchup is set at 47.5. Doug Martin may have something to say about that.
Martin rushed for a remarkable 251 yards and four touchdowns against Oakland last week. The Bucs have the ninth-rated rush offense in the league.
While you would think that this puts them at an advantage, it doesn't. Here's why: The Bucs can't stop anyone.
Carson Palmer last week through for 414 yards and four touchdowns against the Bucs. That's not surprising, since the Bucs have the worst pass defense in the NFL, giving up 321 yards per game.
The Chargers are coming off a drubbing of the Chiefs last week, one in which Philip Rivers threw for 220 yards and two scores. The Chiefs have the 11th-ranked pass defense in football. Rivers cannot wait to get a crack at the poor Bucs defense.
Between the high-octane rush offense of the Bucs and their equally poor pass defense, look for this game to have both teams potentially over 30.
New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have a horrid defense, and even though the Giants are struggling, it's enough to put this game over the 46.5 mark.
The Bengals are in the midst of a four-game losing streak in which they have given up an average of 26.5 points per game.
While the Giants have struggled, particularly in the red zone, this is the perfect week to break out. The Giants still have the ninth-best passing attack and have shown they can score in bunches.
On the other hand, the Bengals feature A.J. Green, and no one on the Giants can really stop him. Unless they can get pressure on Andy Dalton, something that has been lacking, then Green could have a huge game.
Between the Bengals' defensive ineptitude and A.J. Green's potential for dominance, look for this game to go well past the over.
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