NFL handicappers are going to have a difficult time backing the Jacksonville Jaguars as one of their against-the-spread (ATS) picks this week, as they get set to face the Indianapolis Colts on Thursday night at EverBank Field, with the opening kickoff scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET on the NFL Network.
The Jaguars are four-point home underdogs in the current Week 10 NFL betting odds (courtesy of SBR Forum), while the total has settled in at 42.5.
Quarterback Blaine Gabbert earned his first fourth-quarter comeback in a 22-17 victory over the Colts as three-point road underdogs on Sept. 23, but Jacksonville has been outscored by a significant 126-34 margin in losing all four of its games at home this season.
Let's take a closer look at this AFC South affair from a betting perspective, while offering a pro football prediction along the way.
The Indianapolis Colts have won seven straight Thursday games, but all of those games took place before quarterback Andrew Luck was selected with the first overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft.
Luck has led the franchise to three consecutive wins, including a 23-20 victory over the Miami Dolphins last week, which has caused NFL oddsmakers to establish the Colts as a road favorite for the first time this season.
He completed 22-of-46 passes for 313 yards and two touchdowns with an interception in his first meeting with the Jaguars.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been dominated at home this season, but it's important to note that three of those four games came against teams that made the playoffs a year ago.
Miscues will likely determine the outcome of this Thursday night affair, as the Jaguars are minus-two in turnover differential this year, while the Colts are even worse in that category at minus-10.
Jacksonville should be aggressive offensively due to Indianapolis forcing just a single turnover on the road this year.
I reached out to Jimmy Vaccaro earlier this week about this high-profile affair. He serves as the public relations director for William Hill US, and here's what he had to say:
"Two franchises heading in different directions, take the one heading north—Indianapolis. Plain and simple: One is getting better, one's getting worse."
I'm going to recommend that readers back the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday night, as they've covered four of the last five meetings in this AFC South series.
NFL Week 10 Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +4