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NFL SpreadSHREDDER, Week 10: Luck, Colts a Nationally Televised Disappointment

Alfred KonuwaFeatured ColumnistNovember 8, 2012

NFL SpreadSHREDDER, Week 10: Luck, Colts a Nationally Televised Disappointment

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    The Week 10 storyline should be one of redemption, as a handful of NFL teams were handed down embarrassing losses in their last outings, and will have added motivation to avenge those poor performances. 

    Many of these teams are sizable underdogs in optimal situations, and should be set to overcome insulting point spreads in the face of adversity. 

    [SpreadSHREDDER Week 9 ATS: 1-2]

    [Overall Record ATS: 19-8]


    [Lines from Sportsbook.com via VegasInsider.com and FiveDimes.com]

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) over Indianapolis Colts

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    The Indianapolis Colts will be playing their third road game in five weeks against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are coming off an embarrassing home loss and went off as a three-point underdog on national television. 

    Not much can be said about the value of nationally-televised underdogs that hasn't already been said.  The SpreadSHREDDER has got quite fat and happy off teams expected to lose in their own backyard in front of a sizeable viewing audience.

    The Indianapolis Colts are beginning to become media darlings as they prepare to make a surprising playoff run on the strength of rookie Andrew Luck, who continues to be universally lauded by NFL pundits. 

    The Colts have done the majority of their damage at home, where they have already played five games, and will now return to the road—where they are 1-2—on a short week.  

    Against what should be a more intense Jaguars team in a hostile environment, expect this young Colts team to slip up on the road against a divisional foe yet again. 

    Prediction: Jacksonville 24-21 Indianapolis

St. Louis Rams (+12.5) over San Francisco 49ers

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    The St. Louis Rams have had two weeks to stew over a one-sided loss to the New England Patriots in which the defending AFC champions ran up a 45-7 score.

    Obviously, Las Vegas now has as well, as they now list the Rams as a double-digit underdog against a divisional opponent. 

    The Rams' increased motivation through two weeks of preparation, combined with the San Francisco 49ers' blowout win over the Arizona Cardinals on national television, gives great value to the Rams.

    St. Louis has stayed competitive in almost every game this season, despite damning preseason prognostications. 

    With a combined 59-point swing between the Rams' last loss and the 49ers' last win, St. Louis is one of the most valuable bets this weekend. 

    Prediction: St. Louis 26-23 San Francisco

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins, UNDER 44

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    The Tennessee Titans once again played to the over against the Chicago Bears after a turnover-influenced blowout in which defensive scores by Lovie Smith's squad created a misleading wagering total. 

    The Tennessee Titans are a bottom-five team when it comes to first downs per game, with only 17.2. Not to be outdone, the Miami Dolphins are bottom-10 in that category with just 18 first downs per game.

    Understandably, the Dolphins have been playing three points under the wagering total all season, while the below-average offense of the Tennessee Titans continues to play at an unsustainable nine points above the wagering total.

    An improving Dolphins defense should keep this game low-scoring as a Titans total once again comes back down to earth. 

    Prediction: Miami 21-18 Tennessee


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