NFL Picks Week 10: Favorites That Will Easily Cover Spread

Tim DanielsFeatured ColumnistNovember 7, 2012

LONDON, ENGLAND - OCTOBER 28:   Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots leads his teammates out on the field during the NFL International Series match between the New England Patriots and the St. Louis Rams at Wembley Stadium on October 28, 2012 in London, England.  (Photo by Scott Heavey/Getty Images)
Scott Heavey/Getty Images

Now that every team has played at least half of its schedule, there are very few surprises when it comes to picking games. Aside from the widely inconsistent teams like the Philadelphia Eagles, fans have a pretty good read on most squads.

When it comes to making weekly selections against the spread, that means it's more important than ever to identify teams that aren't getting enough respect from the oddsmakers. It's basically a buy-low tactic, but for teams instead of fantasy players.

With that in mind, let's take a look at some good options in Week 10 which fall into that category. All lines courtesy of


Detroit Lions (-1)

Quietly, the Lions have worked their way back into the playoff race after getting written off following a slow start. They have won three of four games since their bye week—perfectly timed to ensure the season didn't slip away.

Detroit faces the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, a team that's lost its last two. It's a clear example of opponents moving in opposing directions, but the overall body of work has kept the line low. If the Lions win, it's at least a push.

Rookie Russell Wilson was able to carve up the Vikings secondary last week, completing 67 percent of his passes and throwing three touchdowns. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson should be able to do the same en route to a two-score Lions victory.


New England Patriots (-11)

The Patriots own the Buffalo Bills. It's really that simple. They illustrated that dominance once again in Week 4, overcoming a halftime deficit with an astonishing 45 second-half points to blowout the Bills on the road.

In that game, Tom Brady threw for 340 yards, the Patriots had two running backs go over 100 yards and forced six turnovers. They have more talent than Buffalo right now and it shows, which is why 11 points really isn't that much.

Remember, New England won by 24 last time despite spotting the Bills a seven-point lead at the half. The Bills have some upside in the season's second half due to a weak schedule, but they will have to wait at least another week to make their move. Pats win big.


New York Giants (-4)

The defending champions head to Cincinnati to take on a reeling Bengals squad that has dropped four straight games, including a loss to the Cleveland Browns. Meanwhile, the Giants have won six of their last eight to take control of the NFC East.

Cincinnati's struggling defense has been the main reason it hasn't been able to repeat last season's surprising run. The Bengals rank in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed and haven't forced enough turnovers to make up for it.

It's a perfect opportunity for Eli Manning to get back on track. Manning hasn't thrown a touchdown in three weeks, but he'll end that streak on Sunday as the Giants enter their bye week on a high note. Expect a double-digit victory for Big Blue.