NFL Over Unders Week 10: Breaking Down Sunday's Best Bets

Tyler ConwayFeatured ColumnistNovember 8, 2012

LONDON, ENGLAND - OCTOBER 28:  Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots calls a play during the NFL International Series match between the New England Patriots and the St.Louis Rams at Wembley Stadium on October 28, 2012 in London, England.  (Photo by Jamie McDonald/Getty Images)
Jamie McDonald/Getty Images

As frustrating as it can oftentimes be, betting over/unders remains one of the most fun forms of sports gambling—especially in the NFL.

Inherently, human nature tells us to always take the over because, well, everyone loves high-scoring games. Luckily, with teams scoring at an all-time high rate, bettors have been both able to have their high-scoring cake and make gobs of money with it too.

However, the oddsmakers now have a large enough sample size to make their lines indicative of those high scores. While that may make taking the over harder than it has been, the inflation in totals actually opens up some nice under bets too. 

With that in mind, here is a look at the best over/under bets of Week 10. 

(All over/under lines are courtesy of Bovada)


Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (Over/Under: 51.5)

Though it's shockingly not the week's highest line (that distinction goes to the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints), it's not hard to see why the oddsmakers are jacking up the total in this contest.

The Patriots boast by far the NFL's best offense, a unit that scores over three points more and gains 30 yards more per game than any other in the league. Led by Tom Brady and a surging Stevan Ridley, New England should have no problem padding those leads against a Bills defense that ranks 31st in the NFL, giving up 417.9 yards per game.

On the other side of the field, Buffalo should also be able to move the ball well against the Patriots. Ryan Fitzpatrick has historically turned in mixed-bag performances against his AFC East counterpart, but the Bills have still managed to score 21 or more points in four of the past five meetings. 

Whether it's in garbage time or in a close contest, both teams will get on the board early and often. The total would probably have to stretch past 60 for me to take anything other than the over here.

Pick: The Over.


Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers (Over/Under: 47.5)

Sure, it's damning with faint praise, but I cannot remember a better 2-6 team than this season's Panthers.

Though the team finds a way to blow victories on a weekly basis, just one of Carolina's eight games thus far has been decided by more than one score. Cam Newton and the Panthers offense likely have to put their foot back on the pedal for that trend to continue on Sunday.

The Broncos come into Week 10 as one of the NFL's hottest teams, having scored over 30 points in three of their last four games. Coupled with a surging defense, Denver is possibly the AFC's second most complete team behind the Houston Texans.

Nonetheless, I like the Panthers to keep it close, which should mean a relatively high scoring total. Newton is the type of quarterback who can evade Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil, which may lead to some big plays down the field.

The contest will hover around the oddsmakers' total, but I keep hearing 31-21 in my head and I, like most crazy folks, always listen to the voices in my head.

Pick: The Over.


Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (Over/Under: 44)

As a rule of thumb, always be wary when the oddsmakers set a total above the average point total of both teams—especially when those teams are as offensively inconsistent as the Titans and Dolphins.

Led by questionable quarterback play and fleeting spectacular play in the running game, Miami and Tennessee have combined for nine games with 17 or fewer points.

Understandably, the oddsmakers set this line assuming that the Dolphins would eviscerate the Titans' anemic defense, but we simply have not seen that this season. In games against questionable defenses, Miami has looked both equally strong and anemic this season. The team scored 35 against the Oakland Raiders, but a mere 17 points against the Cincinnati Bengals and St. Louis Rams.

The Dolphins may break the 20-point barrier, but won't score enough to hit the over in what should be a relatively dominant win.

Pick:The Under