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NFL Week 10 Predictions: Latest Odds and Picks Against the Spread

Zach KruseSenior Analyst INovember 12, 2016

NFL Week 10 Predictions: Latest Odds and Picks Against the Spread

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    There is no secret formula for betting on the National Football League, but by using trends and recent performance, one can make educated guesses on odds and picks against the spread. 

    Using our data on each team in certain betting situations, we can better forecast how each line will finish for Week 10 of the NFL season. 

    In the following slides, we break down the numbers and trends to give our picks against the spread for Week 10. 

    Lines taken from ESPN.com on Wednesday, Nov. 7. 

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)

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    The Jaguars are 0-4 against the spread at home, including 0-3 as the home underdog. They've also lost four of their last five games by more than three points.

    An easy cover should be available for the Colts on the road. 

    Pick ATS: Colts

New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals (+4.0)

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    The Bengals are fading fast, having lost four-straight games after starting 3-1.

    They've also been terrible at home this season (1-3 overall, 0-3-1 against the spread), and now must face one of the NFC's elite teams.

    Pick ATS: Giants

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-6.0)

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    These two teams are all over the betting-trends map.

    The Dolphins are 0-2 against the spread as a road favorite, while the Titans are just 3-6 against the spread overall and 1-3 as the away underdog. When the trends don't give any advice, always go with the better football team—especially at home. 

    Pick ATS: Dolphins

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (+1.0)

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    The betting trends are no help here either (Lions 2-3 against the spread as the favorite, Vikings 2-2 at home), but there's clearly one team on the rise and another on the decline in this matchup.

    The Lions have won three of their last four, and the Vikings have dropped three of four. Potentially no Percy Harvin pushes this further in the Lions' favor. 

    Pick ATS: Lions

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-11.0)

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    Few divisional rivalries are as lopsided as Patriots-Bills has been over the last 10 or so years.

    Over the last 23 total games, New England has beaten Buffalo a whopping 21 times. Solidifying this bet for New England is the fact that the last three Patriots wins in this series have all been over 11 points (24, 28, 31).

    Pick ATS: Patriots

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (+2.5)

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    This is a scary betting line considering the circumstances.

    Atlanta is the favorite, and they've been right at home in that role this season (2-0 as road favorite). But New Orleans is starting to play better, particularly at home.

    The Falcons are the much, much safer pick, but something tells me a Saints cover is coming. 

    Pick ATS: Saints

San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.0)

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    The Bucs have been very good against the spread this season (6-2), and any team that score points has been trouble betting-wise for the Chargers lately. The Broncos, Saints and Falcons all covered lines and scored big points against San Diego. Tampa Bay has scored at least 28 points in four-straight weeks. 

    Pick ATS: Buccaneers

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers (+4.0)

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    Broncos-Panthers is betting strength against betting strength, as Denver is 4-0 against the spread as the favorite and Carolina is 4-1 as the underdog. If there were a higher line, say +7.0 or +8.0, I'd feel more comfortable picking the Panthers. Red-hot Denver should cover a +4.0 line in John Fox's return to Carolina. 

    Pick ATS: Broncos

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)

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    Both teams are 3-5 against the spread, but here's the kicker: Oakland is 3-1 as the underdog, while Baltimore is just 1-3 as the home favorite. The Raiders might not win this football game, but keeping it within one possession is within the realm of possibility. 

    Pick ATS: Raiders

New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

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    This may be your slam-dunk pick of the week.

    The Seahawks are a perfect 4-0 against the spread at home, although three of those wins have come as the underdog. Seattle just plays at a different level in the Pacific Northwest. There's no reason to think the lowly Jets (1-1 as an away underdog) can keep this within one score 3,000 miles away from home. 

    Pick ATS: Seahawks

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (+1.0)

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    Like Atlanta-New Orleans, this divisional game has so many factors intertwined that making a bet on it is risky business. But if you do, there is one betting trend to understand: The Eagles are just 2-6 against the spread this season.

    Pick ATS: Cowboys

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-11.0)

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    -11.0 is a steep line for the 49ers, who haven't exactly been a rock-solid bet as the home favorite (2-2 against the spread). The Rams are 2-1 as road underdogs despite a straight-up record of 0-3. St. Louis won't win this game, but keeping it under 11 seems feasible—especially with receiver Danny Amendola back in the fold. 

    Pick ATS: Rams

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-1.0)

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    The Texans have yet to be an underdog this season, but they are 6-2 against the spread overall. Chicago has been much less predictable (2-2 as home favorite).

    The betting numbers lean slightly towards Houston, but I'd go with the Bears to cover. They have more to prove to a national audience. 

    Pick ATS: Bears

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-11.5)

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    The Chiefs are the worst team in football, playing on the road against the surging Steelers in a nationally televised game. There's no need for betting trends here. 

    Pick ATS: Steelers

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