College Football Picks Week 11: Top 25 Games That Will Be Closer Than You Think

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Just because your team is ranked in the Top 25 and is facing a team under 0.500 doesn't mean that a blowout is in the works.

Just ask Notre Dame.

That's a good thing, though. If every game went exactly the way that people thought they would go, college football would be a pretty boring thing.

Even the best of teams sometimes have a lapse against mediocre teams.

So, what Top 25 games this week will be closer than you might think? Read on.

No. 24 Northwestern at Michigan

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Things could get awfully murky in the Big Ten should Northwestern pull off this win at the Big House, especially if Nebraska loses as well.

Does anyone actually want to win the Big Ten?

The Wildcats played Nebraska tough. This could be another game decided by a touchdown or less.

Army at No. 23 Rutgers

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Most indications point to this game not being close, but how many people would have predicted that the Knights would have beaten Air Force by 20?

Granted, Army tends to play tougher against the likes of Air Force and Navy, but a win like this could inspire some much needed confidence.

And it's not like Rutgers is infallible...

Iowa State at No. 17 Texas

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Texas remains a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde team. It's been beat by a combined 111-66 against West Virginia and Oklahoma, but it did just get a big win against Texas Tech, 31-22. You don't quite know which Longhorns you're going to get week in and week out.

And I'd beware of Iowa State. The Cyclones have the potential to stun you if you let them stay in the game too long.

Just ask Oklahoma State.

Penn State at No. 16 Nebraska

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Who would have thought that Penn State would be 6-3 overall and 4-1 in the Big Ten?

I'm not sure if that says more about how resilient the Nittany Lions are or just how bad the Big Ten is this year. I suspect it's a combination of both.

Nebraska is a 7.5-point favorite, but I think that a field goal just might determine this game.

Baylor at No. 12 Oklahoma

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The Bears still suffer from having a horrible defense, but their offense can sure put points on the board. They do average 43 points per game after all.

And I'm not sold on the Sooner defense. After all, they gave up 30 points to Notre Dame at home, and that offense has some issues.

The oddsmakers have Oklahoma as a three-touchdown favorite, but this game should be much closer than that.

No. 10 Florida State at Virginia Tech

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Undoubtedly, Virginia Tech is experiencing a bit of an off year. This will be the first year that the Hokies will finish will less than 10 wins since they joined the ACC.

But you would be foolish to look past Virginia Tech's home-field advantage.

Yes, Florida State is the better team, but those fans at Lane Stadium could make things a bit uncomfortable for the visiting Seminoles.

No. 9 Louisville at Syracuse

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You wouldn't think that a 9-0 team ranked No. 9 in the country would have too much to worry about from a 4-5 team, but stranger things have happened in the Big East this year.

Like when Kent State upended Rutgers.

The question still somewhat remains: Just how good are the Cardinals, and are they really a Top 10 team?

Also given that the Orange just beat Cincinnati, this one should be interesting.

Mississippi State at No. 7 LSU

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LSU came so close to taking out the No. 1 team in the land, but it just couldn't stop Alabama's fateful final drive for the go ahead touchdown.

Meanwhile, Mississippi State has dropped two straight after starting 7-0.

I don't know. It seems like that it's just time for the Bulldogs to finally take out a major SEC West power. This game might be it.

No. 5 Georgia at Auburn

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Mark Richt and the Bulldogs are just a win over Auburn away from taking the SEC East title. 

Personally, I think that Auburn's offensive woes may lull the Bulldogs into a false sense of security. I don't see Auburn suddenly rising up to take out Georgia, but we just may see a similar game to Auburn's close loss against LSU earlier in the year.

No. 4 Notre Dame at Boston College

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No, I don't think that Boston College is going to suddenly rise up and upset the Fighting Irish.

However, Notre Dame has a bad habit of getting itself into close games against meh teams. The Irish have had close calls against Purdue (20-17), Stanford (20-13 OT), BYU (17-14) and Pitt (29-26 3OT).

The Eagles have a really bad team, but I can't help thinking that the final score of this game will be closer than most would think.

No. 2 Kansas State at TCU

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Here's an interesting phenomenon: Kansas State is No. 2 in the country while TCU is unranked, but Vegas has both of these teams at even.

Collin Klein's injury is why.

Nobody knows yet whether Klein will play against the Horned Frogs, but even if Klein starts, this one should be a thriller. 

No. 15 Texas A&M at No. 1 Alabama

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Texas A&M knew that it needed to step up its game to compete in the always difficult SEC West, and the Aggies have held up surprisingly well.

Now they get a shot at the No. 1 team in the nation.

This is going to be a tough game for the Aggies to win, but there a few things that go in A&M's favor. For one, Alabama just had a tough emotional win over LSU last week. 

It certainly wouldn't be the first time that a team had a letdown after a big win.

Now, I don't think that Texas A&M comes out of Tuscaloosa with the W, but this game should be closer than one might initially think.