NFL Week 10 Picks: Home Favorites That Will Win Big

Darin PikeContributor INovember 6, 2012

ORCHARD PARK, NY - SEPTEMBER 30:  Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots looks to pass against the Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium on September 30, 2012 in Orchard Park, New York.New England won 52-28.  (Photo by Rick Stewart/Getty Images)
Rick Stewart/Getty Images

Week 10 of the 2012 NFL season presents several games with heavily-favored home teams. The spread on most of these games still isn't high enough, though, as there will be some hosts that are a bit rough on their guests.

Granted, games don't always go as planned, but the following teams shout treat their home crowd to wins this weekend without too much nail-biting.


Matchup: San Diego Chargers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

When: Sunday, Nov. 11 at 1:00 p.m. ET

Spread: Tampa Bay -3 (via Oddsshark)

Prediction: Buccaneers 34, Chargers 24

These two teams are simply going in opposite directions. It took the Bucs a few weeks to get their land-legs, but they've won three of their last four games to get to 4-4 on the year.

They are coming off their bye week and host a Bolts team that just broke a three-game losing skid with an ugly win over the Kansas City Chiefs.

Tampa Bay's offense is clicking with rookie Doug Martin excelling at running back and Vincent Jackson beginning to gel with Josh Freeman.


Matchup: Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

When: Sunday, Nov. 11 at 1:00 p.m. 

Spread: New England -12 

Prediction: Patriots 34, Bills 17

The Patriots dropped a 58-28 Week 4 pasting on the Bills, who had started the season at 2-1. Little has changed with these two teams since then.

The Bills (3-5) continue to lose and the Patriots (5-3) have one of the most dominant offenses in the NFL. New England has been held to less than 29 points just twice this season.

The Bills won't make it three times and they can't score enough to keep up with the Patriots.


Matchup: Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins

When: Sunday, Nov. 11 at 1:00 p.m. 

Spread: Miami -7 

Prediction: Dolphins 24, Titans 13

This is a difficult game to project, mostly because these two teams have been so hit-and-miss. The Dolphins (4-4) seemed to be getting better every week, but their pass defense let them down against Andrew Luck last weekend.

Ryan Tannehill is showing weekly improvement and quieting critics. His biggest deficiency thus far is finding targets in the end zone, as he has just five touchdown passes on the season.

The Titans (3-6) are every bit as unpredictable. They lack cohesion on offense and their defense seems to lose focus in critical moments.

This is a game the Titans could win but the odds aren't in their favor.


Matchup: New York Jets. vs. Seattle Seahawks

When: Sunday, Nov. 11 at 4:05 p.m. 

Spread: Seattle -7½

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Jets 17

It would be easy to call the Seahawks unpredictable given their big wins and losses to teams it appears they should have beaten. But it is easy to decipher the differences in their play.

Seattle has been unbeatable (4-0) at home and dismal (1-4) away from Seattle. They need to fix their road woes if they want to make the playoffs, but that can wait. This game is at home.

The Jets have had a week off to work on their offensive struggles. But too much of their attention this season has been on how to use Tim Tebow as opposed to working on how Mark Sanchez is running the offense.

A suspect ground game and struggling passing attack isn't going to get it done in the CLink. The Seahawks' offense is getting their act together and should be able to move the ball at home.


Matchup: St. Louis Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers

When: Sunday, Nov. 11 at 4:15 p.m.

Spread: San Francisco -12½

Prediction: 49ers 23, Rams 10

How quickly things have changed in the NFC West in 2012. After five weeks all four teams were above .500. The Rams have lost three straight since then and the Arizona Cardinals turned a 4-0 record into 4-5.

St. Louis has surrendered 75 points over the last two weeks while scoring just 27. That trend will continue in San Francisco.

I'd like to peg more points on the 49ers' board, but Jim Harbaugh will roll out a conservative ground attack and be content to chew yards and clock en route to a comfortable win.


Darin Pike is a writer for Bleacher Report's Breaking News Team and a Featured Columnist covering the NFL and the Seattle Seahawks.