Predicting the 2009 NCAA Tournament Bracket

Jesse Arendt by Contributor Written on March 15, 2009
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1 UNC (ACC) 28-4

16 Cal State-Northridge (Big West) 17-13

UNC still holds their No. 1 seed, mostly because of only having 4 losses, and winning the solid ACC outright. Beating Duke twice helps. Northridge got in yesterday with an overtime win over Pacific, who hasn't been the same since the days of Michael Olowokandi.

8 Texas (Big 12) 22-11

9 Wisconsin (Big Ten) 19-12

This is a rematch of a close game in December at Wisconsin—both teams are capable of beating anyone, but both have been very inconsistent this year.

5 West Virginia (Big East) 23-11

12 Western Kentucky (Sun Belt) 24-8

West Virginia had a very solid year in year two of the Bob Huggins era. Western Kentucky is trying to prove last year's Sweet 16 run was no fluke, despite losing a solid pro in Courtney Lee.

4 Xavier (A-10) 25-7

13 Northern Iowa (MVC) 23-10

Xavier is a hard team to figure out, but good enough to win several games and make a run in the tournament. Northern Iowa played their way in with an MVC final win over Illinois State.

6 Arizona State (Pac-10) 24-9

11 VCU (CAA) 24-9

Could be a great matchup with two college superstars and future first round picks with consensus All-American James Harden and mid-major great Eric Maynor, who beat Duke as an 11-seed two years ago.

3 Missouri (Big 12) 28-6

14 Cornell (Ivy) 21-9

Mike Anderson's revised "40 minutes of Hell" scheme is finally paying off for Missouri after using it at UAB. Cornell was the first team to officially receive their automatic bid, and could provide a tough game for whoever they play.

7 Marquette (Big East) 24-9

10 Minnesota (Big Ten) 22-10

These are two teams on the decline—Minnesota barely got in with a couple wins late, but nine top 100 and five top 50 wins are enough to get in as an at-large. Marquette has gone 1-5 without Dominic James (counting the game where he was hurt), and could have been as high as a three-seed before that injury.

2 Memphis (C-USA) 31-3

15 Robert Morris (NEC) 24-10

Though Memphis is on a tremendous winning streak, the main reason I have them as a two-seed instead of a one is the lack of great wins.

Their two best wins are very good ones—at Tennessee and at Gonzaga, but their next best win is probably against Cincinnati, or in conference against UAB and Tulsa.

They have fewer top-50 wins than NIT-bound Northwestern, but they are still dangerous, and only have three losses. Robert Morris is my best 15-seed, and could keep the game close.

 

West

1 Duke (ACC) 28-6

16 Alabama State (SWAC) 22-9

Yes. Duke is a one-seed, after beating Florida State. With the win Sunday, Duke has more top 100 wins than anyone in the country with 18, passing Oklahoma, and would have six top 25 wins. Alabama State avoids the play-in game with 22 wins.

8 Ohio State (Big Ten) 22-9

9 BYU (MWC) 25-7

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written on March 15, 2009 Preview/Prediction

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