Inside the Stats: Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics
Here's my weekly gaze "Inside The Stats" at some of the "real numbers" that teams have posted this season to date.
Puttin' On The Stats
With two months of results under their belts, here are the teams that have won all—or all but one—of their games on the stat sheet in total yards this season: Alabama, Cincinnati, Florida State, Kansas State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Oregon State, Rutgers, Texas A&M and Utah State.
Conversely, here are the teams that have lost all—or all but one—of their game ITS (In The Stats) this season: Auburn, Central Michigan, Colorado, Colorado State, Eastern Michigan, Idaho, Miami Ohio, Temple and Tulane.
The recommendation is to "Play On" the good guys as an underdog and to "Play Against" the bad guys when favored.
Here is the list of games involving teams that have faced common opponents this season.
When applied sagaciously, results of these findings one's handicapping arsenal.
According to the PLAYBOOK MIDWEEK ALERT newsletter, the largest variance of combined net total yardage in common opponent games this week finds: Texas Tech (+355), Georgia Tech (+336), Southern Mississippi (+295), Virginia (+266), Washington (+251), Buffalo (+208) and Troy (+204).
Notice the Cavaliers and the Huskies are on the receiving end of the linemakers' offering this week.
This week's contingent of college football favorites who are "leaking oil" (teams who have been out-gained in each of their last three games) include: Auburn, Kent State, NC State, Tennessee and Wake Forest.
The Tigers find themselves laying doubles despite the fact they have lost the stats in each of their last five games.
Auburn owns one straight-up and "in the stats" win this season, that a three-point overtime verdict against Louisiana Monroe.
On the NFL front Baltimore, Miami, New Orleans and Seattle are all "leaking oil" this week.
The Dolphins are 2-11 ATS as favorites in games off an upset win.
It's Getting Hot In Here
The NFL coaching carousel looks to lose a horse or two in the very near future.
With teams in the league underachieving and pressure being applied by fans and owners alike, here is the list of current NFL coaches and the odds you would receive at BetOnline by correctly identifying the first coach to get the axe:
Norv Turner +250, Jason Garrett +300, Rex Ryan +400, Romeo Crennel +500, Ron Rivera +600,Andy Reid +650, Chan Gailey +650, Pat Shurmur +700 and Marvin Lewis +1500.
Collectively this unit is 22-42 Su and 31-36-4 ATS this season.
The one common denominator: all own losing records.
Here is an update of home teams have fared ATS (Against The Spread) this 2012 NFL season. All results through Monday, 10/9.
Home Teams: 49-64-4
Away Teams: 64-49-4
AFC Dogs: 32-32-1 (13-5 L3 weeks)
NFC Dogs: 39-13-2 (6-9-1 L3 weeks)
Best Role: 18-7 dogs off a double-digit loss
Worst Role: 3-14 home favorites off back-to-back wins
Stat Of The Week
LSU is 57-5 at night in games under Les Miles.
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