NFL Week 9 Picks: Who Has the Edge in Dolphins vs. Colts in Indianapolis?

Adam WaksmanCorrespondent IIINovember 1, 2012

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - OCTOBER 14:  Andrew Luck #12 of the Indianapolis Colts runs with the ball against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on October 14, 2012 in East Rutherford, New Jersey.  (Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images)
Nick Laham/Getty Images

Sunday's game in Indianapolis features the Colts (4-3) against the Miami Dolphins (4-3). It will not be a laugher. The Dolphins are not the pushovers they were in years past. In fact, the latest odds have the Dolphins at one-point favorites over the Colts.

Still, the Colts—riding a two-game winning streak—will be victorious at home over the Dolphins this weekend. Here are a few key aspects of the game to consider.


Arguments for the Dolphins

One key argument in favor of the Dolphins is that backup quarterback Matt Moore—likely replacing rookie starter Ryan Tannehill—is better than he is given credit for. Moore stepped into last week's game in the first quarter when Tannehill was injured on a Calvin Pace sack. Moore finished the game—a 30-9 rout of the New York Jets—11-of-19 for 131 yards and a touchdown.

Tannehill is obviously the Dolphins quarterback of the future, evidenced by the fact that he was given the starting job as a rookie. On the other hand, Moore, at age 28, is an equally effective quarterback.

Moore stepped in last year for Chad Henne, played in 13 games and threw 16 touchdowns to only nine interceptions. He was rated the No. 11 quarterback overall for the 2011 season.

Another argument in favor of the Dolphins is their run defense. With the No. 4-ranked run defense in the NFL, Vick Ballard—the Colts' stop-gap running back—is likely to have trouble.


Arguments for the Colts

In order for the Colts to win, they will need to do it with their offense. The Colts offense is significantly better than the Dolphins, while the Colts defense is significantly worse.

Rookie quarterback and No. 1 overall pick Andrew Luck needs to be a big part of that. However, it is not only his arm that needs to make things happen; it is also his legs. So far this season, Luck ranks as the No. 1 running quarterback in the NFL, ahead of Robert Griffin III.

Pass blocking along the offensive line is the other big thing that the Colts need to make happen. Winston Justice and Mike McGlynn need to neutralize the Dolphins pass rush, which has taken advantage of some of the weaker offensive lines they have faced.

The last thing the Colts need to do is capitalize on their long drives. The Colts can move the ball very well; they rank eighth in the NFL in total offensive yards. Yet, they are only 24th so far this year in scoring. Part of this is a result of scoring touchdowns on only 45.8 percent of red zone possessions.


The Pick

If the Colts lose this game, it will be because they beat themselves. They are a young team and prone to mistakes. At the same time, they have the more talented roster and are capable of scoring at will when they execute.

If Luck can take care of the ball and make the best use of his red zone attempts, the Colts will stay above .500 this weekend and strengthen their bid for a wild card spot.


Adam Waksman is a featured columnist for the Bleacher Report New York Jets community. Be sure to follow Adam on Twitter to receive updates right away.