2012 College Football Week 10 Picks: Oregon over USC

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2012 College Football Week 10 Picks: Oregon over USC
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In a game where Marqise Lee racked up 345 receiving yards (on 16 receptions) and 469 all-purpose yards, it's hard to fathom USC losing to any team, let alone Arizona (1-3 in the Pac-12 heading into Week 9).

However, the Trojans' 618 yards of total offense is watered down when the Wildcats boast 588 total yards and force five (!) turnovers, three fumbles and two interceptions. You play to win the game, but you need the ball to win the game in a shootout like the one last Saturday in Tuscon.

Besides the damning loss to USC's national championship hopes, why does this loss to Arizona matter? Well, the Trojans' Week 10 opponent, Oregon, beat the Wildcats 49-0 in late September.

The Ducks (8-0) are steamrolling the opposition by an average score of 53-19. The offense is third in the country in rushing (330 yards per game) behind traditional run-oriented offenses Army and Air Force and has scored the most rushing touchdowns in the country (34). Kenjon Barner paces the offense with 974 yards on 141 carries (6.9 yards per rush) with 14 touchdowns. He's one of four Ducks with over 350 rushing yards to-date.

As for USC, the aforementioned Lee already has 76 receptions for 1,129 yards (141.1 rec. yards per game, 2nd in NCAA) with 10 touchdowns (second in NCAA). Quarterback Matt Barkley is completing over 65 percent of his passes for over 2,200 yards with 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Without question, the Trojans' main goal on Saturday is slowing down the Ducks' ground game. USC is 29th in the country in rush defense, allowing just over 123 yards per game, but only six touchdowns via the ground.

We simulated the Ducks and Trojans 101 times and it's Oregon coming away with the win 57.4 percent of the time by an average score of 29-27.

College Football Week 10
Matchup Win% Avg Score  
Boston College Eagles 32.7 20 Boxscore
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons 67.3 26  
Virginia Cavaliers 32.7 19 Boxscore
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack 67.3 24  
Virginia Tech Hokies 39.6 24 Boxscore
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes 60.4 25  
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 55.4 26 Boxscore
@ Maryland Terrapins 44.6 23  
Clemson Tigers 58.4 31 Boxscore
@ Duke Blue Devils 41.6 26  
Temple Owls 32.2 21 Boxscore
@ Louisville Cardinals 67.8 26  
Syracuse Orange 48.5 23 Boxscore
@ Cincinnati Bearcats 51.5 24  
Connecticut Huskies 49.5 20 Boxscore
@ South Florida Bulls 50.5 22  
Illinois Fighting Illini 10.9 14 Boxscore
@ Ohio State Buckeyes 89.1 28  
Nebraska Cornhuskers 53.5 24 Boxscore
@ Michigan State Spartans 46.5 21  
Michigan Wolverines 59.4 25 Boxscore
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers 40.6 21  
Penn State Nittany Lions 64.4 23 Boxscore
@ Purdue Boilermakers 35.6 19  
Iowa Hawkeyes 67.3 27 Boxscore
@ Indiana Hoosiers 32.7 22  
Massachusetts Minutemen 13.9 15 Boxscore
@ Northern Illinois Huskies 86.1 29  
Eastern Michigan Eagles 17.3 16 Boxscore
@ Ohio Bobcats 82.7 27  
Akron Zips 18.8 15 Boxscore
@ Kent State Golden Flashes 81.2 28  
Miami (OH) RedHawks 61.9 24 Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bulls 38.1 20  
Western Michigan Broncos 66.3 31 Boxscore
@ Central Michigan Chippewas 33.7 25  
Arizona State Sun Devils 43.6 24 Boxscore
@ Oregon State Beavers 56.4 26  
Washington Huskies 49.5 24 Boxscore
@ California Golden Bears 50.5 25  
Washington State Cougars 49.5 25 Boxscore
@ Utah Utes 50.5 26  
Arizona Wildcats 55.4 26 Boxscore
@ UCLA Bruins 44.6 25  
Oregon Ducks 57.4 29 Boxscore
@ USC Trojans 42.6 27  
Stanford Cardinal 84.2 28 Boxscore
@ Colorado Buffaloes 15.8 16  
Troy Trojans 10.9 18 Boxscore
@ Tennessee Volunteers 89.1 34  
New Mexico State Aggies 20.3 16 Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers 79.7 27  
Missouri Tigers 28.7 16 Boxscore
@ Florida Gators 71.3 23  
Mississippi Rebels 31.7 19 Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs 68.3 25  
Tulsa Golden Hurricane 46.0 26 Boxscore
@ Arkansas Razorbacks 54.0 28  
Texas A&M Aggies 55.4 25 Boxscore
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs 44.6 22  
Vanderbilt Commodores 67.8 21 Boxscore
@ Kentucky Wildcats 32.2 15  
Alabama Crimson Tide 74.3 24 Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers 25.7 18  
Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners 15.8 22 Boxscore
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 84.2 37  
Texas State Bobcats 21.8 19 Boxscore
@ Utah State Aggies 78.2 28  
San Jose State Spartans 68.3 29 Boxscore
@ Idaho Vandals 31.7 22  
Pittsburgh Panthers 23.8 20 Boxscore
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish 76.2 29  
Florida Atlantic Owls 23.8 18 Boxscore
@ Navy Midshipmen 76.2 25  
Air Force Falcons 70.3 28 Boxscore
@ Army Black Knights 29.7 20  
Kansas Jayhawks 34.7 23 Boxscore
@ Baylor Bears 65.3 28  
TCU Horned Frogs 39.6 26 Boxscore
@ West Virginia Mountaineers 60.4 29  
Oklahoma State Cowboys 40.6 23 Boxscore
@ Kansas State Wildcats 59.4 26  
Texas Longhorns 44.6 24 Boxscore
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders 55.4 26  
Oklahoma Sooners 68.3 28 Boxscore
@ Iowa State Cyclones 31.7 23  
Memphis Tigers 25.7 21 Boxscore
@ Marshall Thundering Herd 74.3 29  
UAB Blazers 38.6 21 Boxscore
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles 61.4 25  
Southern Methodist Mustangs 47.5 25 Boxscore
@ UCF Knights 52.5 26  
Houston Cougars 53.5 29 Boxscore
@ East Carolina Pirates 46.5 28  
Rice Owls 54.0 24 Boxscore
@ Tulane Green Wave 46.0 23  
Hawaii Warriors 10.9 17 Boxscore
@ Fresno State Bulldogs 89.1 30  
San Diego State Aztecs 27.7 23 Boxscore
@ Boise State Broncos 72.3 31  
Colorado State Rams 32.7 20 Boxscore
@ Wyoming Cowboys 67.3 24  
New Mexico Lobos 46.5 24 Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels 53.5 26  
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 41.6 26 Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 58.4 29  
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 46.5 24 Boxscore
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 53.5 25  
FIU Golden Panthers 65.3 27 Boxscore
@ South Alabama Jaguars 34.7 21  
Arkansas State Red Wolves 74.3 29 Boxscore
@ North Texas Mean Green 25.7 23  

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2012 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

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