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2012-13 Fantasy Basketball Live Draft Analysis

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2012-13 Fantasy Basketball Live Draft Analysis
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LeBron James hoisting the Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy.

With the start of the season just a few days away, all of us true fantasy basketball fanatics have forsaken our fantasy football teams and have been focusing our time and resources to try to get an upper hand in our upcoming drafts. Though I’m sure that most leagues have drafted by this time, there are may be a few managers out there interested to know where players are being taken and who they should be targeting in their upcoming drafts.

So you, whether this is your first year or you’re a season dynasty champion, can see how things may play out, I will be giving you a round-by-round analysis of my personal league’s draft, and the teams that we’ll go to war with.

Throughout the years, we’ve played with a myriad of H2H (head-2-head), rotisserie and points leagues all with different positions and point settings. This year we are going to be H2H, meaning teams with the best W-L-T records will compete in the playoffs, and we are playing the basic nine categories (FT%, FG%, 3PTM, PTS, REB, AST, STL, BLK and TO).

Instead of the normal mock draft positions, my stat-happy league has opted to play PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, Util (x4) and Bench (x3)—playing four Util spots allows our teams to have more roster flexibility and allows for more stats to be accumulated in any of the given categories.

Below, I (Team P-Lip) will explain to you the reasons behind my picks, and my general thoughts on the players being picked in the same round.

Round 1

1.

Kevin Durant (OKC - SF)

Shake N Bake

2.

LeBron James (Mia - SF,PF)

Goodluck

3.

Chris Paul (LAC - PG)

cb87

4.

Kevin Love (Min - PF,C)

MWPOS

5.

Russell Westbrook (OKC - PG)

P-Lip

6.

Dwyane Wade (Mia - PG,SG)

The Knickerbockers

7.

Deron Williams (Bkn - PG)

Dwhite Rice

8.

Al Jefferson (Uta - PF,C)

MASHED POTATATOES

9.

Rajon Rondo (Bos - PG)

Game Time

10.

Dirk Nowitzki (Dal - PF)

I Kaman Her Gasol

11.

Kobe Bryant (LAL - SG)

Da Bulls!

12.

Andrew Bynum (Phi - C)

Long Live the Queen

I feel I can draft a championship-caliber team from any draft position. With that said and a complete 180-degree turn, I absolutely hated my position this year, as I didn’t believe that there is any clear cut player to draft at No. 5, no matter what the Yahoo! fantasy experts say.

Although I could have gone with Dwyane Wade, Deron Williams or Al Jefferson, I decided to give into the experts’ opinion and agreed that Russell Westbrook was the best option for me. He gets excellent percentages from the floor and the line, and he’s a 20-5-5 guy night in and night out. In addition, Westbrook’s young and healthy, which played an important part in choosing him over guards like Wade and Williams.

If I had known at the time that James Harden was going to be traded to the Houston Rockets, then I would have been more confident in taking Westbrook, as the Thunder’s dependency on Westbrook’s scoring, threes and passing ability are going to increase.

I’m most surprised with Rajon Rondo sneaking into the first round, and I think it threw off most teams in my draft. With Ray Allen signing to the Miami Heat, Boston’s offense will really open up Rondo, as he now has one less player to worry about getting into an offensive rhythm. I still think Rondo, with his atrocious FT percentage and inconsistent offensive game, should have been a mid- to late second-round pick.

Round 2

13.

Josh Smith (Atl - SF,PF)

Long Live the Queen

14.

Dwight Howard (LAL - C)

Da Bulls!

15.

LaMarcus Aldridge (Por - PF,C)

I Kaman Her Gasol

16.

Steve Nash (LAL - PG)

Game Time

17.

DeMarcus Cousins (Sac - PF,C)

MASHED POTATATOES

18.

Kyrie Irving (Cle - PG)

Dwhite Rice

19.

Paul Millsap (Uta - PF)

The Knickerbockers

20.

Marc Gasol (Mem - C)

P-Lip

21.

Serge Ibaka (OKC - PF,C)

MWPOS

22.

Ty Lawson (Den - PG)

cb87

23.

Pau Gasol (LAL - PF,C)

Goodluck

24.

Al Horford (Atl - PF,C)

Shake N Bake

I always like getting an elite point guard and big man in the first two rounds, and I did that by taking Marc Gasol. I would have preferred DeMarcus Cousins to fall to me, but with Gasol’s ability to shoot decently from the line, get rebounds, steals, blocks and average three assists per game, I feel I got great value for a great player this late in the second round.

I’m shocked that Nash was taken so early. I didn’t even have Nash listed as a player to take on my draft board. With the Los Angeles Lakers running the Princeton offense and with two notable passers in Bryant and Pau Gasol playing around him, I’m projecting Nash to average around four to six assists a night, but that’s not good enough for a second-round pick.

I think team Dwhite Rice got a steal with Kryie Irving, and was fortunate to be able to pair him with Williams. Irving will make a huge leap this year with more offensive weapons at his use. Team Goodluck really lucked out with getting Gasol out of the early second round. With Dwight Howard paired with him in the front court and a better finisher than Andrew Bynum, Gasol’s stats will remain the same, and I foresee an increase in assists.

With Derrick Favors now with the Utah Jazz, I expect Paul Millsap’s numbers to take a huge hit. At best, Millsap and Favors will be in a timeshare, logging around 25-29 minutes a night. For Millsap, this means he’s going to average numbers like 11 points, six rebounds and a steal, which is a huge drop off from his ’11-12 averages of 16 points, eight rebounds and two steals. I think Al Horford, who is coming off an injury year, has more upside at this point.

Round 3

25.

Brandon Jennings (Mil - PG)

Shake N Bake

26.

James Harden (Hou - SG,SF)

Goodluck

27.

Stephen Curry (GS - PG)

cb87

28.

Carmelo Anthony (NY - SF,PF)

MWPOS

29.

Kyle Lowry (Tor - PG)

P-Lip

30.

Danny Granger (Ind - SF,PF)

The Knickerbockers

31.

Joe Johnson (Bkn - SG,SF)

Dwhite Rice

32.

Andre Iguodala (Den - SG,SF)

MASHED POTATATOES

33.

Greg Monroe (Det - C)

Game Time

34.

Mike Conley (Mem - PG)

I Kaman Her Gasol

35.

Rudy Gay (Mem - SF,PF)

Da Bulls!

36.

Goran Dragic (Pho - PG)

Long Live the Queen

I decided to pick Kyle Lowry in this round because he has triple-threat potential, and before last year’s injury, he was a top-12 fantasy player. With a new change of scenery, he has tremendous upside, and I think he’s a steal at this round. Sure, he’s a little bit of a health risk and should Lowry not meet expectations, Jose Calderon is waiting to take away some of his minutes, but I believe that high risk yields high rewards. Should Lowry meet my expectations, he will pair nicely with Westbrook.

When Goran Dragic was given the keys to the run-and-gun Phoenix Suns, I think he should have been on everyone’s radar. In 28 starts last year, Dragic averaged 18 points per fame, 1.3 three-point shots made, eight assists and 1.8 steals per game while shooting near 50 percent from the field and over 80 percent from the line. Dragic is going to be a stud, and because he’s not a household name yet, he’s going to be one of the biggest stories of this year.

If Lowry wasn’t available in this round, I would have picked up Greg Monroe. Believe it or not, but Monroe is only 23 years old and entering his third NBA season. This year, I’m projecting that he’s going to average 18 points per game, 10 rebounds per game, 1.5 steals per game and a block per game. To most fantasy players out there, you have to love that he shoots over 70 percent from the line. Unless Monroe doesn’t play, there’s no way he can hurt your fantasy team.

Round 4

37.

Nicolas Batum (Por - SG,SF)

Long Live the Queen

38.

Anthony Davis (NO - PF)

Da Bulls!

39.

Paul Pierce (Bos - SF)

I Kaman Her Gasol

40.

Blake Griffin (LAC - PF,C)

Game Time

41.

Paul George (Ind - SG,SF)

MASHED POTATATOES

42.

Marcus Thornton (Sac - SG)

Dwhite Rice

43.

Ryan Anderson (NO - PF,C)

The Knickerbockers

44.

Marcin Gortat (Pho - C)

P-Lip

45.

David Lee (GS - PF,C)

MWPOS

46.

Ersan Ilyasova (Mil - PF)

cb87

47.

Manu Ginobili (SA - SG,SF)

Goodluck

48.

John Wall (Was - PG)

Shake N Bake

In having taken two point guards within the first three rounds, I really felt that I needed to start building on blocks this round, and I took the best big man left in Marcin Gortat. Even with Luis Scola paired in the front court with him, I don’t think that Gortat’s numbers are going to change (15 PPG, 10 RPG, 1.5 BPG). A lot of teams in my league doubted my pick, saying that there’s no more Nash to give him his numbers. As stated earlier, I’m fairly high on Dragic, so I don’t think Nash’s absence is going to matter much.

I play in a league with guys who have lived in Los Angeles their whole lives, so I just wanted to point out that Paul Pierce is our equivalent of a white elephant—a player who we see can burden a team. I’m not saying that you shouldn’t draft Pierce, but after what he did to the Lakers in ’07-08, everyone in my league is hesitant to get him, lest they become the object of ridicule in the league. With that said and with Allen gone, I think Pierce is up for another amazing year. In any other league, I’d probably get him this round.

Ersan Ilyasova is poised to have a great run this year. In 41 starts last year and in 29 minutes, he averaged 14 points per game, one three-point shot made, eight rebounds per game and averaged nearly two steals and blocks combined. With no other power forward pushing him for minutes and an offensively ungifted center in Samuel Dalembert, Ilyasova is Miluakee’s only low post threat this season. There’s something special about him, and the fact that he’s going to enter the one three-one steal-one block club doesn’t hurt his case either.

Round 5

49.

Kevin Garnett (Bos - PF,C)

Shake N Bake

50.

Monta Ellis (Mil - PG,SG)

Goodluck

51.

Chris Bosh (Mia - PF,C)

cb87

52.

Tony Parker (SA - PG)

MWPOS

53.

Joakim Noah (Chi - PF,C)

P-Lip

54.

Gerald Wallace (Bkn - SF,PF)

The Knickerbockers

55.

Brook Lopez (Bkn - C)

Dwhite Rice

56.

Jrue Holiday (Phi - PG)

MASHED POTATATOES

57.

Tyson Chandler (NY - C)

Game Time

58.

Eric Gordon (NO - SG)

I Kaman Her Gasol

59.

Amar'e Stoudemire (NY - PF,C)

Da Bulls!

60.

Danilo Gallinari (Den - SF)

Long Live the Queen

Let’s get one thing straight here: I love Joakim Noah. Although he’s not the most flashy player out there, he’s one of my favorite hustle guys in the NBA. Whenever I watch the Bulls, when he's out on the court Noah doesn’t hold back—diving for rebounds, trash-talking the refs and trying to block every shot. With Gortat and Marc Gasol on my roster, Noah gives me another guy who can grab 10-plus rebounds a night, a steal and a couple of blocks. With this pick, I’m very confident in my big men.

If Andrew Bynum can stay on the court, I really like Jrue Holiday in this round. He’s started the past couple of years and has averaged 14 points per game, one three-point shot made, five assists per game and 1.6 steals per game. With Andre Iguodala’s summer trade to the Denver Nuggets, I expect the offense to be run through Holiday.

With Brook Lopez’s injury last year, I think he’s fallen off the map this year. Especially with all the negative press he gets for a center who can’t rebound, he was a borderline second-round pick a couple of years ago and is a steal in the fifth round. Remember, he’s averaged 20 points, six to eight rebounds, two blocks and shoots a Yao-esque percentage from the line.

Round 6

61.

Nene Hilario (Was - PF,C)

Long Live the Queen

62.

Derrick Rose (Chi - PG)

Da Bulls!

63.

Tim Duncan (SA - PF,C)

I Kaman Her Gasol

64.

Ray Allen (Mia - SG)

Game Time

65.

Wesley Matthews (Por - SG,SF)

MASHED POTATATOES

66.

Jeff Teague (Atl - PG)

Dwhite Rice

67.

Raymond Felton (NY - PG,SG)

The Knickerbockers

68.

Mo Williams (Uta - PG,SG)

P-Lip

69.

Jeremy Lin (Hou - PG)

MWPOS

70.

Tyreke Evans (Sac - SG,SF)

cb87

71.

Zach Randolph (Mem - PF,C)

Goodluck

72.

Roy Hibbert (Ind - C)

Shake N Bake

With my big men locked up and missing out on Jeff Teague and Raymond Felton, I decided to take Mo Williams to complement the point guards that I already have, and it doesn’t hurt that he has shooting guard eligibility. Williams’s stint as the sixth man for the Clippers has deflated his value, and I believe he can average around two threes, six to seven assists and a steal per game while maintaining excellent percentages.  

Other than Roy Hibbert and Zach Randolph (who is going to averaging 20-12 this year), this round looks like a bunch of misfits. Nene Hilario is often injured and has to compete with Emeka Okafor, Trevor Booker and Kevin Seraphin for minutes. Derrick Rose won’t come back until January, and it’s been rumored that he might sit out the entire season. Tyreke Evans is far from his rookie of the year stats, and has been progressively getting worse each year. Even though Evans is in a contract year, it looks like the Sacramento Kings have handed over the keys to Isaiah Thomas and Cousins, and I do think he’ll do much at this point.

Round 7

73.

Kris Humphries (Bkn - PF)

Shake N Bake

74.

Klay Thompson (GS - SG,SF)

Goodluck

75.

Kenneth Faried (Den - PF)

cb87

76.

Carlos Boozer (Chi - PF,C)

MWPOS

77.

Luol Deng (Chi - SF)

P-Lip

78.

Andrew Bogut (GS - C)

The Knickerbockers

79.

Andrea Bargnani (Tor - PF,C)

Dwhite Rice

80.

DeAndre Jordan (LAC - C)

MASHED POTATATOES

81.

David West (Ind - PF)

Game Time

82.

Arron Afflalo (Orl - SG)

I Kaman Her Gasol

83.

Damian Lillard (Por - PG)

Da Bulls!

84.

Anderson Varejao (Cle - PF,C)

Long Live the Queen

Since I’ve locked up my guards and big men, I’m going to try to turn my attention to shooting guards, small forwards and guys who can do things out of position, like forwards or shooting guards that pass well. For some reason, I’ve always missed out on Luol Deng, but this year I finally got him. He may not be the flashiest player around, but I love the fact that he averages around six to seven rebounds a game for his position. Since Rose may not be returning this year, Deng is going to have to be the go-to guy, so I’m hoping he can average north of 18 points per game, 1.5 threes, seven rebounds and 1.5 steals.

My favorite sleepers of this round were picked ahead of me: Klay Thompson and Kenneth Faried. They’re two young guns who can play their positions well. Both players are entering their second years, and both have surpassed expectations of fantasy owners. In 29 starts last year, Thompson averaged 18 points, two threes, three rebounds, three assists and two steals.

Whether or not Stephan Curry can stay healthy, I expect Thompson to get better this year. Faried helped the Denver Nuggets take the Lakers to seven games in last year’s playoffs. As a starter, he averaged 11 points, eight rebounds, and two combined steals and blocks. With no competition for minutes at the power forward spot, the Manimal is poised to be a double-double machine this year.

Also, don’t sleep on Damian Lillard. Rookie point guards in the NBA have been flourishing recently (see: Rose, Westbrook, Kyrie Irving, Thomas and Ricky Rubio).

Round 8

85.

Kevin Martin (OKC - SG)

Long Live the Queen

86.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Cha - SF)

Da Bulls!

87.

Luis Scola (Pho - PF,C)

I Kaman Her Gasol

88.

Elton Brand (Dal - PF,C)

Game Time

89.

Ricky Rubio (Min - PG)

MASHED POTATATOES

90.

JaVale McGee (Den - C)

Dwhite Rice

91.

Isaiah Thomas (Sac - PG)

The Knickerbockers

92.

O.J. Mayo (Dal - SG)

P-Lip

93.

Evan Turner (Phi - SG,SF)

MWPOS

94.

Jason Terry (Bos - PG,SG)

cb87

95.

Jose Calderon (Tor - PG)

Goodluck

96.

Michael Beasley (Pho - SF,PF)

Shake N Bake

With Dirk Nowitzki injured for the beginning of the season, I expect O.J. Mayo to establish himself as an integral part of this young team’s offense. I don’t think that he was properly utilized in Memphis’s offense, and he was only averaging around 25 minutes a game in coming off the bench. In his first year, when averaging 38 minutes a game, Mayo was averaging 18 points, two threes, three assists, three rebounds and a steal. Along with Westbrook and Deng, I expect Mayo to reach those rookie and sophomore numbers and help keep me competitive in points.

Of all the guys taken in this round, I find Evan Turner the most intriguing. If he can replicate what Iguodala did in the 76ers’ offense, I think Turner can be a very special player. As a starter, Turner proved he can be a decent rebounder (7 RPG) and a fair passer (3 APG). I actually think that Thaddeus Young will eat into Evan's minutes, and I think he has been overdue for a breakout year.

Round 9

97.

Brandon Knight (Det - PG,SG)

Shake N Bake

98.

Andrei Kirilenko (Min - SF,PF)

Goodluck

99.

Gordon Hayward (Uta - SG,SF)

cb87

100.

Al Harrington (Orl - PF,C)

MWPOS

101.

Nikola Pekovic (Min - C)

P-Lip

102.

Jameer Nelson (Orl - PG)

The Knickerbockers

103.

Lou Williams (Atl - PG,SG)

Dwhite Rice

104.

Darren Collison (Dal - PG)

MASHED POTATATOES

105.

Avery Bradley (Bos - PG,SG)

Game Time

106.

Thaddeus Young (Phi - SF,PF)

I Kaman Her Gasol

107.

Harrison Barnes (GS - SF)

Da Bulls!

108.

J.R. Smith (NY - SG,SF)

Long Live the Queen

I know that I was supposed be drafting do-it-all forwards and guards, but I couldn’t pass up on Nikola Pekovic. In some of my mock drafts, he was going as early as the fifth round, and that help put him on my radar. You know that you’re doing your job well when other teams in your league are telling you that “you suck” and “I hate you.” Take a look at what Pekovic did last year.

Andrei Kirilenko, another Minnesota Timberwolf, should be on your rador as well. Kevin Love’s injury is going to thrust AK-47 into a larger role, and any guy who can get you 1-1-1 should be much coveted.

Round 10

109.

Jared Dudley (Pho - SG,SF)

Long Live the Queen

110.

Austin Rivers (NO - PG,SG)

Da Bulls!

111.

Samuel Dalembert (Mil - C)

I Kaman Her Gasol

112.

Jason Kidd (NY - PG)

Game Time

113.

Tony Allen (Mem - SG,SF)

MASHED POTATATOES

114.

Derrick Favors (Uta - PF,C)

Dwhite Rice

115.

Kemba Walker (Cha - PG)

The Knickerbockers

116.

George Hill (Ind - PG,SG)

P-Lip

117.

Wilson Chandler (Den - SG,SF)

MWPOS

118.

Spencer Hawes (Phi - C)

cb87

119.

Glen Davis (Orl - PF,C)

Goodluck

120.

Channing Frye (Pho - PF,C)

Shake N Bake

I drafted another point guard in this round; so much for sticking with my draft strategy. In rounds 10 and on, my fellow leaguers often call these the throwaway rounds—draft guys you like and that have upside, but be ready to throw them away when better players show up. I decided to draft George Hill, as he’s now the starting point guard in Indiana, and I could use the assists he can get to solidify my point guard stats.

I was really torn between taking Hill or Spencer Hawes. Since I took Pekovic in the previous round, I had to rule Hawes out. With Bynum in Philadelphia now, I think Hawes can play a role very similar to what Pau Gasol did for Bynum in Los Angeles. Hawes is gritty player who can rebound well, and he’s an underrated passer.

Round 11

121.

Brandon Bass (Bos - PF,C)

Shake N Bake

122.

Chauncey Billups (LAC - PG,SG)

Goodluck

123.

Andre Miller (Den - PG,SG)

cb87

124.

Jason Richardson (Phi - SG,SF)

MWPOS

125.

Marvin Williams (Uta - SF)

P-Lip

126.

Trevor Ariza (Was - SG,SF)

The Knickerbockers

127.

Greivis Vasquez (NO - PG,SG)

Dwhite Rice

128.

Brandon Roy (Min - SG,SF)

MASHED POTATATOES

129.

Antawn Jamison (LAL - PF)

Game Time

130.

Bradley Beal (Was - SG)

I Kaman Her Gasol

131.

Thomas Robinson (Sac - PF)

Da Bulls!

132.

Dion Waiters (Cle - SG)

Long Live the Queen

I mainly took Marvin Williams to add a little bit of depth at the small forward position. His stint in Atlanta showcased that he can do a little bit of everything. His new change of scenery in Utah should do him good.

Everyone in this round was upset that Brandon Roy was taken. Love’s absence has made it clear that there’s no more offense on this team. Roy has been an All-Star and a player who knows how to carry a team on his back. If the platelet-rich plasma therapy has worked its magic, Roy can be that guy in Minnesota.

Round 12

133.

Emeka Okafor (Was - C)

Long Live the Queen

134.

Kendall Marshall (Pho - PG)

Da Bulls!

135.

Hedo Turkoglu (Orl - SF,PF)

I Kaman Her Gasol

136.

Rashard Lewis (Mia - SF,PF)

Game Time

137.

DeMar DeRozan (Tor - SG,SF)

MASHED POTATATOES

138.

Omer Asik (Hou - C)

Dwhite Rice

139.

Chris Kaman (Dal - PF,C)

The Knickerbockers

140.

Chandler Parsons (Hou - SF,PF)

P-Lip

141.

Jamal Crawford (LAC - PG,SG)

MWPOS

142.

Kawhi Leonard (SA - SG,SF)

cb87

143.

Dorell Wright (Phi - SG,SF)

Goodluck

144.

Mario Chalmers (Mia - PG)

Shake N Bake

In averaging 30 minutes in 57 starts last year as a rookie, Chandler Parsons has been named a started this year, and I’m hoping he’ll average 1-1-1 this year.

If you don’t know who to get in the late rounds, go with a guy who’s been paid a boatload of money and see a lot of playing time. Omer Asik is a safe pick, and you know that he’ll rebound and block for you.

Round 13

145.

Bismack Biyombo (Cha - PF,C)

Shake N Bake

146.

Metta World Peace (LAL - SF,PF)

Goodluck

147.

J.J. Hickson (Por - PF,C)

cb87

148.

Shawn Marion (Dal - SF,PF)

MWPOS

149.

Tristan Thompson (Cle - PF,C)

P-Lip

150.

Brandon Rush (GS - SG)

The Knickerbockers

151.

Courtney Lee (Bos - SG,SF)

Dwhite Rice

152.

Taj Gibson (Chi - PF)

MASHED POTATATOES

153.

Danny Green (SA - SG,SF)

Game Time

154.

Luke Ridnour (Min - PG,SG)

I Kaman Her Gasol

155.

Kirk Hinrich (Chi - PG,SG)

Da Bulls!

156.

J.J. Redick (Orl - SG)

Long Live the Queen

I picked Tristan Thompson this round because he’s been in absolute beast mode this preseason.

With Nash manning the helm in Lakerland this year, I think Metta World Peace will profit from Nash’s pass-first mentality. If MWP gets the open looks I think he will and plays solid defense, I think he can get two threes and two steals a game.

Round 14

157.

Nikola Vucevic (Orl - PF,C)

Long Live the Queen

158.

Stephen Jackson (SA - SG,SF)

Da Bulls!

159.

Jordan Crawford (Was - PG,SG)

I Kaman Her Gasol

160.

DeJuan Blair (SA - PF,C)

Game Time

161.

Nick Young (Phi - SG,SF)

MASHED POTATATOES

162.

Ramon Sessions (Cha - PG,SG)

Dwhite Rice

163.

Marcus Camby (NY - C)

The Knickerbockers

164.

Rodney Stuckey (Det - PG,SG)

P-Lip

165.

Mike Dunleavy (Mil - SG,SF)

MWPOS

166.

Andre Drummond (Det - PF)

cb87

167.

Steve Novak (NY - SF,PF)

Goodluck

168.

Anthony Morrow (Atl - SG,SF)

Shake N Bake

With Brandon Knight running the show in Detroit, I decided to go with Rodney Stuckey because he can focus on scoring, and there’s been rumors of an improved shooting stroke. With small back courts— Curry/Monta Ellis, Ellis/Brandon Jennings—seeing some general success, I don’t see why Knight/Stuckey can't coexist together.

If I wasn’t stacked at the power forward or center positions, I would have opted for Andre Drummond, as he has upside for rebounding and blocks.

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