The Cougars (24-8, 11-7 Pac-10 conference) will look to expand on the marginal success of last year’s tournament where they won the first round game against Oral Roberts before losing in double-overtime to Vanderbilt.
In order for the Cougars to make a deeper run in this year’s tournament, Cougar fans feel junior forward Aron Baynes will need to be more productive than he was in the regular season.
“If Baynes can stay out of foul trouble, we have a good shot,” said Jason P. Crigger, a junior communications major from Spokane.
Crigger was referring to a key stat in the eight Cougar defeats this season – in six of the losses, Baynes had three or more fouls.
“He holds the key within himself,” Crigger said. “He gets visibly frustrated when a few calls don’t go his way and his game starts to go downhill.”
Crigger believes that if Baynes can stay out of foul trouble, he will be a huge benefit to the Cougars on offense and defense.
Junior communications major Patrick W. Nelson agrees.
“Baynes is going to have to be effective on the inside to help out Cowgill,” Nelson said.
The Cougars rely heavily on a man-to-man defense, meaning that Robbie Cowgill and Baynes are each responsible for covering their own man in the post. When Baynes gets into foul trouble, it eliminates the Cougar’s advantage of size and strength.
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“Caleb Forrest is the next guy to come in if Baynes gets into trouble,” Nelson said. “But he’s only 6-foot-8 and he’ll get eaten alive by guys who are a lot bigger in this tournament.”
The Cougars will not only depend on the play of Baynes, but they will also depend on the play of their overall team defense. This season, the Cougars ranked in the top three in scoring defense, allowing 57.1 points per game.
The Cougars’ first round opponent, Winthrop University, does not have a player taller than 6-foot-9. That led Nelson to believe that Winthrop is a small, fast team.
“Everybody knows WSU has a great defense, but the key is going to be to get back in the transition game and eliminate easy baskets because Winthrop is not going to dominate in the post with small players.”
If the Cougars are to advance through the NCAA bracket towards a Final Four appearance, they will have to do it in what many consider the toughest regional bracket. The Cougars are the No. 4 seed in the East region. The region includes three teams – North Carolina, Tennessee and Butler – that are all ranked in the top 10 of the ESPN/USA Today Top 25 poll. The region also features seven teams who are ranked in the Top 25.
“The East is by far the toughest region,” Crigger said. “You’ve got the No. 1 team with North Carolina, Tennessee who was No. 1 a few weeks ago, Butler who is the No. 7 seed, Indiana who was in the top 10 and Notre Dame who haven’t lost back-to-back games all season.”
Nelson said, “If North Carolina makes the Sweet 16, I think they go all the way. But if Indiana can beat North Carolina in the second round, I think anything can happen. That’s why March Madness is so fun.”
Both Crigger and Nelson thought that junior forward Daven Harmeling could a big factor in the tournament as well for the Cougars. Harmeling made the clutch 3-point shot to lift the Cougars over the Gonzaga Bulldogs last season. However, Harmeling has been riddled by injuries this season and has struggled at times.
“If he starts shooting the rock the way everyone knows he is capable of…he provides another dimension that teams have to be accountable for,” Crigger said.
Nelson said, “Harmeling started making his three-point shots in the Pac-10 tournament, so that was really great to see and gives me hope for the NCAA tournament.”
Crigger is one of few Cougar students who were able to get tickets and travel to Denver for the first two rounds of the tournament. He believes that if the Cougars execute on offense with Baynes and Harmeling and play great team defense, they have a shot to make noise in the tournament.
“That’s the cool thing about the tournament. It just takes one game. Any given night something can happen. A few calls or a few right bounces and the next thing you know, they are walking out of the tournament with a trophy.”
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