INSIDE the STATS... Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

Marc Lawrence@@MarclawrenceContributor IIIOctober 25, 2012

By looking beyond the scoreboard and inside the stats and stories behind a football game, we get a different take on teams and their records to date.

Here’s my weekly peek "Inside The Stats" and behind some the "real numbers" that football teams have posted this season to date…

Clean As A Whistle

After passing the midway portion of the 2102 college football season, a quick glance of the PLAYBOOK MIDWEEK ALERT newsletter shows only six teams have out-gained every opponent in total yards this season, or "in the stats."

The Super Six consist of Alabama, Cincinnati, Florida State, Oklahoma, Oregon and Texas A&M.

Only two teams remain winless "in the stats."  They are Temple and Tulane. 

Leaking Oil

By definition, a team that is "leaking oil" is one who has lost the stats (total yards) in each of its last three games.

These teams become high-risk propositions when they find themselves as favorites, as it’s not often you’ll find a favorite beat the spread in a game in which it has been out-gained.

This week’s laundry list of college football favorites who are "leaking oil" include: Boston College, Central Michigan, Colorado State, Illinois, Northwestern, Ohio University and Texas.

The Longhorns take to the road laying three touchdowns at Kansas, despite having been out-gained in each of their last four contests. 

Texas has won one of its last nine conference road games by more than 10 points.

All favorites in the NFL have passed their oil inspection test this week.

Common Law

The list of games involving teams that have faced common opponents grows exponentially each week.

When used properly, the results of these findings can be an invaluable tool in one’s handicapping arsenal.

According to the PLAYBOOK MIDWEEK ALERT newsletter, the largest variance of combined net total yardage in common opponent games this week finds: Louisiana Tech (+514), Florida State (+502), Rice (+352), Stanford (+345), UAB (+334), Oregon (+308), Syracuse (+268), Houston (+263), Texas A&M (+256), South Carolina (+236), Clemson (+245), Oregon State (+221), Arizona State (+216) and Marshall (+203).

Dog lovers relish in finding the Orange and the Thundering Herd on this week’s list.

NFL Rookie Quarterback Report Card

The five starting rookie quarterbacks in the NFL this season – Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden and Russell Wilson – have passed the grade.

Collectively they stand 14-19 SU and 19-14 ATS.

They receive gold stars as underdogs, going 18-8 ATS. 

They have been failures, though, as favorites going 1-6 ATS. 

Go Figure

The Arizona Cardinals started the 2012 season 4-0 despite being out-gained in all four contests.

They have since gone 0-3 while managing to out-gain their opponents in all three losses.  Hmmm.

Stat Of The Week

Georgia’s Mark Richt has choked like a dog in games against 4-0 or greater SEC foes, going 0-7 SU and ATS in his career with the Dawgs.


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