How the Minnesota Twins Can Make the Playoffs

Coming out of the All-Star break, the Minnesota Twins stand at 45 wins and 43 losses, putting them on pace for 83 wins by the end of the year.

Based on the adjusted standings published by Baseball Prospectus, the Twins are just about exactly where they should be.

For our purposes, then, we can say that the Twins' performance in 2007 is almost entirely consistent with their numbers. No good or bad luck, no strange aberrations, no regressions to the mean—the Twins are exactly where they ought to be. 

And barring some unforeseen development in the second half, we should be able to accurately predict how the Twins will finish the season.

Unfortunately, the forecast is bleak. In front of the Twins in the Central Division are the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Indians. The Indians are actually playing better than their adjusted standings and are likely to falter in the second half—but the Tigers are the real deal, and can't be expected to fall apart down the stretch like they did last year.

The Indians are the favorites to win the wild card, with the New York Yankees projected to finish a close second. The Twins are expected to win a maximum of 88 games, which keeps them six games behind Cleveland and two games behind New York.

If the Yankees don't put it together and the Indians have a meltdown (unlikely, but anything is possible), the Twins are frontrunners for the wild card. However, the Oakland A's, Seattle Mariners, and Toronto Blue Jays are bound to keep the race within spitting distance. 

The bottom line: If they want to keep playing in October, the Twins are going to have to be a better team after the All-Star break than they were before.

Whether there's room for improvement in Minnesota is a matter of debate. To resolve it, we need to first understand the weaknesses of the 2007 Twins.

The Twins offense is paced by a solid group of hitters: Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, Torii Hunter, and Justin Morneau. All four are among the top run producers at their respective positions, and thus can't be expected to improve much between now and the fall.

The only way to squeeze more productivity out of this crew: Give them more at bats and more base runners to drive in.

One way to get the big guns more at bats is to move them up in the batting order. The Twins' two OPS leaders currently bat fifth and sixth. They could get an additional 60 plate appearances by the end of the year in the third and fourth spots, an easy fix that might mean one or two more wins before the season is over.

The matter of additional baserunners, though, isn't so easily resolved. The Twins have surrounded their offensive core with a group of players who rank among the worst hitters at their respective positions in the American League. 

The leader of this pack of craptitude is third baseman Nick Punto. Thanks to work done by Aaron Gleeman, we now know that Punto is set to post the third- or fourth-worst offensive season in the history of baseball among regular third basemen.  

In fact, Punto is on pace for one of the five worst offensive performances of any Minnesota regular since the franchise moved from Washington D.C. in 1961. 

 

No one expected Punto to be an All-Star, but his .211 batting average and .585 OPS are simply dreadful. Despite his defensive ability, the Twins have to look to replace him. Having the worst-hitting third baseman in the history of baseball is not the way to win games.

 

Punto's presence in the lineup might be tolerable if it were balanced by a decent designated hitter, but the Minnesota DH spot has been the second-least productive in the AL. It wouldn't take a great hitter to create more opportunities for the Twins' sluggers; it would take an average hitter at both DH and third base.

 

As it stands, though, a major move seems unlikely. Twins GM Terry Ryan has been quoted saying all the potential deals are too "expensive."

 

With Torii Hunter set to become a free agent at the end of the season, you have to wonder why Ryan is sitting on his hands. 

 

The Twins aren't likely to get any internal offensive help either. Their minor league system is devoid of power;  Garrett Jones leads the Twins' Triple-A affiliate in home runs, but he's almost 26, and some scouts see his free-swinging, pull-hitting tendencies as indications of his inability to adjust to big league pitching. 

 

Still, it wouldn't hurt the Twins to give Jones a shot—and I hope the second half sees him getting a look in the DH spot in Minnesota.

 

Triple-A player Matt Tolbert is another candidate for a call-up. Tolbert is hitting .313 in 230 at bats, and though his on-base and slugging numbers are lackluster, he'd almost certainly be an improvement over Luis Rodriguez, who's hitting .191 in 94 at bats.

 

As for pitching: the Twins hurlers have been strong this year, despite the large number of rookie starters and the early struggles of the departed Sidney Ponson and the demoted Ramon Ortiz. Johan Santana should compete for another Cy Young award, and the Twins relievers have the second-lowest ERA of any bullpen in the AL. 

 

Based on ERA, in fact, the Twins staff will give their team a chance to win more than half its games. An average offense would be enough to propel the Twins into the playoffs.

 

Short of a trade, there isn't going to be a magic wand for the Twins in the second half. To improve, they're going to need average hitters to fill the voids at third base and DH. Improvement from their rookie starting pitchers would be a bonus.

 

Last year, the Twins mounted a historic second-half comeback thanks in part to the pitching of Francisco Liriano and the removal of Tony Batista and Juan Castro from the lineup. It won't take such a huge transformation to get the team back into the 2007 playoff picture.

 

A good bat, an average bat, and continued production from the staff should do the job.

 

  

Marty Andrade is a frequent contributor to the Bleacher Report and the host of a live weekly podcast available at BlogTalkRadio.com/Andrade.