NFL Trade Talk: Ranking 5 Possible Trades by Probability
The NFL trade deadline of Oct. 30 is quickly approaching. The market has been relatively quiet, but there are some key pieces that teams may move that could change the landscape of the NFL.
Here are five potential NFL trades and the probability of them actually materializing on a scale of 1-10.
Dwayne Bowe to the Miami Dolphins
The most rampant trade rumors have been linked to disgruntled Kansas City wide receiver Dwayne Bowe.
Jason Cole of Yahoo sports reported last week that Bowe wants out of Kansas City—bad.
I can report this: Bowe wants out of KC very badly. Not exactly a revelation, but true.
— Jason Cole (@JasonColeYahoo) October 17, 2012
You cannot blame Bowe for wanting out of Kansas City. The quarterback situation has been downright awful for the Chiefs and did not get any better Monday when head coach Romeo Crennel announced Brady Quinn as his starting quarterback for Week 8. In Quinn’s one start this season, Bowe had only three catches for 25 yards.
Quinn’s glory days are behind him on the campus of Notre Dame, and Matt Cassel has not been able to match the production he had during his one year as the starter in New England.
The Miami Dolphins are the team in most need of a playmaking wide receiver.
Bowe has broken the 1,000-yard mark the last two seasons and found the end zone 20 times. Brian Hartline, the Dolphins best receiver, has yet to rack up more than 615 yards or three touchdowns in a single season.
The problem is that Bowe is signed to a one-year, franchise tag deal. This means that next offseason he will be a free agent. The Dolphins do not have any significant players they could move in the deal, so it will surely take a high draft pick to get the Pro Bowl receiver. Would they be willing to part with a high pick without the certainty that Bowe will stay with the franchise after the season?
The probability of this trade happening depends on how much interest the Dolphins express as the deadline nears. Miami is not exactly in a win now mode, so draft picks are valuable on building a winning team going forward—especially on a Joe Philbin coached team, who believes that drafting well is how to build a successful franchise.
Bowe would help tremendously, but they have to make sure he wants to be with them for the foreseeable future before pulling the trigger on a deal.
Probability of happening: 6.5 out of 10
Chris Ivory to Arizona Cardinals
The New Orleans Saints made a questionable decision when cuts came around by keeping five running backs on the roster. The Saints have one of the NFL’s most prolific passers under center and do not exactly rely on a potent running attack.
The logjam in the Saints' backfield has led to Chris Ivory not carrying the ball a single time this season. "Honestly, yeah it's frustrating," Ivory said in a Times-Picayune article. "But that's not going to change nothing. Yeah, the situation sucks, but right now I'm still trying to be patient."
During 18 games with the Saints he has rushed for 1,090 yards and six touchdowns on 216 carries. His lack of production lately has simply been for lack of opportunity.
The Arizona Cardinals are in desperate need of a running back after the top two backs on their depth chart, Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams, were sent to the IR. The team has a talented wide receiver corps, headlined by Larry Fitzgerald, but there is no one to deliver the ball to them.
Ivory could make a difference in the dreadful Cardinals’ offense and could be acquired for cheap. He currently sits fourth on the Saints’ depth chart and they likely be willing to part with him for a late draft pick (fourth or fifth round).
The Cardinals need to make some moves around the deadline to acquire a running back. LaRod Stephens-Howling, William Powell and Alfonso Smith will not cut it.
Probability: 8 out of 10
Chris Johnson to Arizona Cardinals
Chris Johnson showed he still has a pulse Sunday, rushing for 195 yards and two touchdowns.
Johnson looked like he had hit a wall before his Week 7 performance. He had only broke the 100-yard mark in one game and his yards in every game outside of that one did not add up to his Sunday total.
Johnson is another player who is disgruntled player. Titan Insider's Terry McCormick recently reported the following quote from Johnson:
I don't believe we're close right now. You look at the games and how we're playing, we don't look like a good team. I wouldn't sit here and say we're close. We need somebody in this locker room to make plays and give us a spark.
It would have been hard to imagine two years ago that the Titans would part with their star running back, but his $10 million salary due next year, $9 million of which becomes fully guaranteed the week after the next Super Bowl, is too hefty of a salary for a streaky running back.
The Titans would likely ask for a lot in return for the former All-Pro. On top of that, Johnson wouldn't be running behind an improve line in Arizona, so he may struggle in the desert as well.
If the Cardinals were to pull off a blockbuster deal, they could package a young wide receiver like Early Doucet with draft picks. However, it is more likely that the Cardinals trade for a running back like Ivory that they can pick up for a lower price tag.
Probability: 3 out of 10
Greg Jennings/James Jones to St. Louis Rams
The Rams have been one of the surprise teams of the season. They knocked off a tough RGIII led Washington Redskins squad in Week 2 and then beat the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals in back-to-back weeks.
While it looks like the Rams are going in the right direction under Jeff Fisher, there are holes on the Rams roster that need filling. One of the most glaring of those holes is at the wide receiver position. Sam Bradford has no one to throw the ball to. Danny Amendola and Brandon Gilbson are far from solid top options.
Neither Greg Jennings or James Jones has spoken out about being discontent in Green Bay, but the team could benefit from a trade with the Rams. The Rams have an aging back in Steven Jackson and no offensive line to open holes for him. Jackson has rushed for more than 1,000 yards in seven consecutive seasons and still has some fuel left in the tank. With Cedric Benson being sent to the IR with a Lisfranc injury, Jackson could play a major role in a Packers’ playoff run.
Could we see a straight up deal with Jackson and Jennings—it’s possible. It is more than likely that draft picks would be involved though. James Jones could be picked up for a lower price tag and has the potential to be a No. 1 guy. However, you do have to question whether Jones production is linked to Aaron Rodgers. It seems like any receiver they plug into that system can go for 100-yards on any given week.
Greg Jennings, 5 out of 10
James Jones, 7 out of 10
Colt McCoy to Kansas City Chiefs
Colt McCoy is a forgotten man to most of the NFL. The former Texas quarterback—whose greatest feat in the NFL thus far has been beating the Saints and Patriots in consecutive weeks in 2010—has been riding the bench in Cleveland since rookie Brandon Weeden took the reigns at the start of the season.
After Mike Holmgren leaves the Browns at the conclusion of the season, McCoy will have no links to the current management. Joe Banner and new owner Jimmy Haslam III will likely want to have “their guys” on the roster and McCoy will likely be cut loose.
However, the Browns should see if they can get any value for the third-year signal caller.
It is unclear how much the Chiefs like McCoy, but coupled with a mid-round pick or two, it could land the Browns Dwayne Bowe.
You then run into the problems that we recapped in the Bowe slide earlier. Would he be willing to stay in Cleveland? Maybe, but it’s not a certainty. Weeden has improved every week and could be a solid NFL quarterback going forward, but Bowe will have a chance to go to 31 other NFL teams at the conclusion of the season. What would keep him in a Browns' uniform?
If McCoy has anything, it's heart and the will to win games. Why not give the kid a shot in KC, especially if you get value from the coupled draft picks.
Probability: 6.5 out of 10