Packers vs. Rams: Spread Info, Line and Predictions
The Green Bay Packers will attempt to parlay a season-defining performance against the Houston Texans when they travel to St. Louis to take on the Rams this Sunday.
The Packers and Rams both sit at 3-3 entering Week 7, but they are both coming off very different Week 6 results. The Packers turned in their most impressive performance by far. After a huge letdown against the Colts in Week 5, the Packers finally seemed to get things to click against the vaunted Texans.
The Rams, however, failed to keep their momentum going on the road. After winning two straight games at home they dropped a tough contest to the Dolphins in Miami, 17-14.
With both teams at the .500 mark, this game will determine who is on track for a winning season and who will need to dig themselves out of a hole in the standings. Here's the full breakdown.
Where: Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis, Missouri
When: Sunday, Oct. 21 at 1:00 p.m. ET
Watch: FOX (check local listings)
Stream: NFL Sunday Ticket
Spread: Green Bay Packers -6 (via Bovada)
If you look at the entire body of work this season between the two teams, it's hard to believe that the Packers are favored on the road. However, if you look at last week's performances from both teams, this line comes as no surprise.
The Packers offense showed why it was one of the most heralded units in the NFL last year. Aaron Rodgers may not throw for six touchdowns again this week, but oddsmakers know what a locked in Rodgers can do and that's why they get the nod here as the favorite.
Over/Under: 45.5 (via Bovada)
Considering the average amount of points these two teams score every week, this over/under is just about right to draw equal action from both sides. The combined scoring average between the two is 44 points.
The Rams have played extremely well on defense, especially against the pass. A low-scoring game favors the Rams but with Rodgers on fire, it's unlikely this one remains low scoring. The Packers scored 42 by themselves last week and they should be able to put up points once again.
Key Injuries (via CBSSports)
|TE||Jermichael Finley||Shoulder||Limited practice. Probable for Week 7 at St. Louis|
|RB||Alex Green||Shoulder||Limited practice. Probable for Week 7 at St. Louis|
|CB||Davon House||Shoulder||Full practice. Probable for Week 7 at St. Louis|
|WR||Greg Jennings||Groin||Did not practice. Doubtful for Week 7 at St. Louis|
|LB||Nick Perry||Knee||Did not practice. Questionable for Week 7 at St. Louis|
|DT||B.J. Raji||Ankle||Limited practice. Questionable for Week 7 at St. Louis|
|S||Sean Richardson||Hamstring||Limited practice. Questionable for Week 7 at St. Louis|
|QB||Aaron Rodgers||Calf||Full practice. Probable for Week 7 at St. Louis|
|CB||Sam Shields||Shin, ankle||Did not practice. Questionable for Week 7 at St. Louis|
|TE||D.J. Williams||Hamstring||Full practice. Probable for Week 7 at St. Louis|
|WR||Danny Amendola||Shoulder||Did not practice. Doubtful for Week 7 vs. Green Bay|
|LB||Mario Haggan||Thigh||Did not practice. Questionable for Week 7 vs. Green Bay|
|CB||Janoris Jenkins||Back||Full practice. Probable for Week 7 vs. Green Bay|
Fantasy Big Plays
Obviously if you own Aaron Rodgers, you should go ahead and give him a start. He's pretty good.
However, if you're a Jordy Nelson owner, inserting him into your starting lineup hasn't always been a rewarding experience. It will be this week.
Here's a fun stat: Nelson has been the leading receiver in all three of the Packers wins and didn't lead the team in receiving in any of the team's losses. Chances are, that's a trend Mike McCarthy is starting to recognize. Look for Nelson to be heavily involved as he is a huge piece of this Packers offense.
If Green still happens to be available in your league he's a great play this week with high upside the rest of the season. He'll never see a huge workload because of Green Bay's pass-happy ways, but he's likely to be the Packers primary ball carrier the rest of the season.
Green has led the team in rushing the last two games with just over 60 yards in both contests.
The Rams are adept at stopping the pass, so the Packers will need to add a little more emphasis to the ground game than we are used to seeing. So, it should be expected that Green will see a boost in his numbers this week.
Green should make for a sneaky good play this week.
Keys to Victory
Green Bay: Keep the offense rolling.
It's no secret that the greatest strength of the Packers is their dynamic offense. When Rodgers is feeling it, they can simply outscore anybody.
The defense obviously has issues, it won't be confused with an elite unit anytime soon. However, it is adept at rushing the quarterback and causing team's problems when they are trying to come back from behind. For the Packers to take this one on the road, the offense needs to remain in sync and overwhelm the Rams.
If they can make this game a battle between Rodgers and Sam Bradford, the Rams don't stand a chance.
St. Louis: Play physical.
Simply put, the Rams need to turn this into a physical game.
The only way to stop a finesse Packers team is to slow down the pace and play with physicality on both sides of the ball. Cortland Finnegan, Janoris Jenkins and Co. must force the Packers wide receivers to work hard for every route by jamming them a the line.
On offense, the Rams must get the running game going with both Steven Jackson and Daryl Richardson. The Packers have shown a vulnerability against the run before. With B.J. Raji's health in question, that vulnerability could be even greater.
The Rams are 3-0 at home, so they can't be discounted when playing in St. Louis but none of those wins have come against the likes of Green Bay.
The Packers don't look invincible as they did this time in 2011, but they showed last week they are still a force to be reckoned with. If Rodgers comes out looking anything like he did last Sunday night against the Texans, this could be a long one for Rams fans.
Expect the Packers offense to get off to a good start and put pressure on the Rams early. Given that this Rams offense is much more inclined to run the ball than throw it around and make a comeback giving up an early lead would be disastrous.
Packers 31 Rams 17
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