Most of these low-seeded teams lose the game within three minutes out of the tunnel, when they see those CBS Sports banners, famous coaches, and All Americans across the court, but Jones should have AU in a good frame of mind to be successful.
While the Eagles may not beat themselves, that's only the initial battle. They still have to beat Tennessee.
Hopefully Jones has the guys studying everything that can about the Volunteers. This is one of the few distinct advantages a lower seeded coach can give his team: better preparation than their opponent. I'm sure Tennessee will see some game film of American, but there's no way they will be mentally preparing themselves as well as AU if Jones has the team doing everything thoroughly. This is their Super Bowl. It would shock me to see a rattled, unprepared American team take the floor.
Also, despite what the Volunteers will tell the media, there is no way that any team with a No. 1 or No. 2 seed isn't looking ahead (at least somewhat). These guys have played on national television against other Top 10 teams, been on Sportscenter all year, and been quoted on ESPN.com after every game.
Maybe a professional athlete can completely isolate themselves, but I don't see how a 19-year-old can avoid getting at least some sense of complacency and self-importance when they're a big time athlete. There has to be a little part of these guys' brains that thinks they are simply entitled to a win against a Patriot League team, even if they try to suppress the notion. If they come out flat, American could build some confidence and not let the game get out of hand.
Xs and Os wise, the Patriots objective is simple: Slow these guys down!
Tennessee is coming off a loss to Arkansas in the SEC tournament where they still scored 91 points. Besides that game, the Vols have three other losses. They fell to Texas, a team with Final Four potential; Vanderbilt, who played their best game of the year in front of a crazy home crowd; and Kentucky, who beat the Vols once and also played them in another close game.
With Kentucky being the lowest ranked team to beat UT, analyzing their approach is most relevant to figuring out what American has to do. UK won 72-66 and only lost 63-60 in Knoxville (where UT didn't lose all year). Kentucky held this Tennessee offense in the 60s twice. In those two games, the Vols shot 38 percent and 40 percent respectively. In contrast, they shot 55 percent in this weekend's Arkansas loss.
The Eagles need to keep UT close to that 40 percent number to hang in this game. How they do it? The answer is simple, and anyone who watches basketball knows it: stop their transition, make them work for every shot, and don't give up offensive rebounds. In other words, a team will miss more shots if the shots are more difficult.
This is easier said than done. That's where preparation and confidence come into play. American played a gutsy, almost turnover-free game in their conference final. Here's hoping the Eagles duplicate that effort and pull off the upset of the tournament!
The pick: American University
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