NCAA Tourney Picks Analysis: East Region

(4) Washington State vs. (13) Winthrop

It's easy to fall into what I like to call "The Valparaiso Trap." It involves giving into the urge to pick a team for an upset just because the team won in the NCAA the previous year.

I don't like Winthrop's matchup against Washington State at all. Both teams play a very slow, defensive-minded game. UCLA is the only team to crack 80 points against WSU, and Winthrop is giving up less than 60 per game for the year.

Only 55 points could win this thing, so don't expect Winthrop to get run out of the gym. Washington State let Oral Roberts hang around last year by playing their low-scoring style.

The problem for Winthrop is that games between teams of similar styles are less likely to feature an upset. There's a reason why the Cougars have the better seed: They've been the better team this season. And so, against a team who isn't going to try to break their comfort zone, I expect them to come out with a win.

The pick: Washington State

(6) Oklahoma vs. (11) St. Joseph's

This game seems weirder and weirder every time I look at it. It's really hard to know what to make of either one of these teams. Oklahoma had a three-game run where they beat Arkansas, Gonzaga, and West Virginia, but they lost their last game to Texas by 28 points.

They also lost to tournament teams USC, Kansas State, and Memphis out of conference, and finished 9-7 in a pretty tough Big 12. They played a pretty fierce schedule and came out with some good wins and a relatively high number of losses.

They're good, but there's nothing spectacular or even memorable about this team. They seem to play pretty tough defense, which is typical of a Capel-coached team. They've certainly played in more big games than St. Joe's this year, and that could be a factor.

St. Joe's is a strange team too. They only went 97 in the A-10, but beat Xavier twice and crushed Villanova by 20 points. I watched the A-10 final against Temple, and they were very underwhelming. There's been a lot of talk about their offensive firepower, but I didn't see it in that game. Then again, a lot of those title games get sloppy as teams fight for their postseason lives.

I've debated over this one quite a bit, but I'm just going to break it down to two things: Defense wins games and 9-7 in the Big 12 is better than 9-7 in the A-10.

The pick: Oklahoma

(3) Louisville vs. (14) Boise State

It is incredibly tempting to write in Oklahoma vs. Boise State in the second round, but there won't be a Fiesta Bowl rematch. I saw the WAC title game—Boise tried to give it away five or six different times.

The game went to three OTs, but should have been won in regulation. Each session ended up with the Broncos blowing a lead through a missed free throw, a turnover, poor defense, or some other mistake. That night, I decided to not pick them to win a tournament game under any set of circumstances.

And now they've drawn Louisville.

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