NCAA Tourney Picks Analysis: East Region

I've posted a set of five articles dissecting the whole tournament. If you like this one, make sure to check the others out...

I know it's already Wednesday, but I'm sure many of you reading this are still using pencil on your bracket (or the paper is filled with scribbles and cross outs). I have written up the thought process I used to make my picks in an attempt to provide you with some insight that isn't available in every source.

A lot of my analysis is based on commonly known facts or things that might seem unimportant to a lot of pundits, but I've made no attempt to filter the details or general thought process that I have based my selections on.

Since this is my first article, I should probably give a brief introduction as to why I spend so much time going over these picks, and I'll try to give you a brief glimpse into my personality.

I get as hyped for March Madness as anyone I've ever met. I keep up with the college game all season, but toward the end I take it into overdrive. In recent years, BracketBuster weekend has served as a concrete date for my interest to become zoned in.

In previous years, it was more of an organic thing. This time of year, there's usually one day when start watching a college basketball game with a medium to high interest level, and by the end of the game I'm saying things like "Ohhhh man, it's getting to be that time of year!" in an awkwardly loud voice, making the people around me uncomfortable.

From that point on, way too much of my time is spent checking the conference standings on the Internet and asking questions like, "Who's leading the Sun Belt and who'd they play out of conference?" to no one in particular.

This all started in 1995 when I was 10 years old. My parents had ODU basketball season tickets, and I'd attended the games with them since I knew what a basketball was. When I started playing the sport myself, somewhere around age eight, I began to really watch the players and try to figure out what made them good at the game.

I began to develop a concept of the NCAA, the championship tournament, and the significance of the game being played. In that 1994-95 season, ODU won the CAA tournament.

I knew what it meant—my favorite team was going dancing. In three overtimes, No. 14 ODU pulled off the upset of the tournament against Villanova. I still vividly remember the feeling I had when that final buzzer rang. The whole world got to see my team at their proudest moment on the biggest stage in sports.

When Petey Sessoms hit the free throws to ice the game, I let out unintelligible screams of joy and sprinted directly out of the back door of my house. I ran circles around the yard for a few minutes, pumping my fists and trying to get a grasp on what I had just seen.

The next day I was alive with an excitement that made that entire day awesome. I was late for school because of Sportscenter, just as I had been on the morning when they broadcast all of Michael Jordan's first retirement press conference. I wanted to see as much of my team as I could—they were on ESPN!

In school, all the kids decked out in UNC and Duke gear were glad their team had won (and, of course, a few kids had even jumped on the Arkansas bandwagon—no doubt they were also Cowboys fans), but their excitement didn't compare to mine.

I remember reenacting the final minute of each overtime by myself during P.E. I did the classic "3, 2, 1... He shoots, he scores!" routine over at the corner basket by which the girls jumped rope and the dorks sat against the bleachers reading books.

(Don't get offended by my use of the word "dork." I by no means grew up a popular, talented kid, so I make no claims of superiority over these sorts of people. But if you were reading during P.E. or recess you were a dork. You were 10 years old and, after having to sit still all day, you forfeited your opportunity to run around like an idiot for half an hour? Sorry, you were a dork.)

Eventually my parents dropped their ODU tickets and I ended up going to JMU, so my allegiance to the Monarchs has been mostly severed. But since that year, I have always rooted for the little guy.

Actually, "rooted" may be too weak of a verb.

Every year I spend the week before the games finding reasons to talk myself and everyone who will listen into believing that an underdog or two can beat a big-time program in their first round game. I find every stat possible, ignore the ones that don't prove my point, and badger people with my completely biased opinion until they probably want to cause me some sort of physical pain.

When the games start, I try to will these upsets into happening. I talk to the television even more than I normally do, often standing up to cheer individually for players I have never seen play and hadn't heard of a week ago. At halftime, a commercial, a Greg Gumbel interruption, or any other break in the action, I loudly spout off every positive thing that is happening for the underdog.

I love trying to analyze the games from the statistical, logical standpoint, but it's the picks from the gut that make the tournament fun to watch. I try to dissect the matchups and figure out who is going to win these things, but I know my picks are often influenced by who I want to win the game.

But that is alright with me; I'd rather pick one true upset correctly each year than win a pool.

I felt that this brief intro was relevant to my picks because it can serve as a warning to you. If I talk you into an upset pick, the persuasion has come after I've done everything possible to talk myself into it as well. I am going to analyze the first round matchups in full detail. My picks for the other rounds will be based on this analysis, a gut feeling, or eenie meenie miney moe.

East Region

(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Mount Saint Mary's

Congratulations to Mt. St. Mary's, who, thanks to the play-in game, can now add an NCAA tournament win to their all-time record.

I hate the play-in game. Two of these 16 seeds should get a fair shot to go play against a top-ranked team. The easiest fix to the tournament is to just cut an at-large bid. There's no need to do anything crazy like the 128 team field that I've heard Bob Knight suggest at least 20 times this past week. All I've seen him do at ESPN is spout off ridiculous suggestions, give flippant answers to those fan questions, and make it clear that he rarely agrees with the people who run things in college basketball.

The other night, Rece Davis asked one of those questions posed to no one in particular and the analysts went down the line with their answers: Which team seeded 13-16 had the best chance to win a game?

Bob Knight responded with, "None of them." Everyone awkwardly laughed like you always hear on these studio shows, but then Knight kept talking and he made it clear that he wasn't kidding.

Not only was he serious, he proceeded to lay out his 92 step plan to fix the NCAA tournament. The only points of it I heard were eliminate the automatic bids and expand to 128 teams. Not only does this completely cheapen the tournament, it takes all the "madness" out of March.

There's just no place for this in the tournament coverage. If someone at ESPN feels this is compelling television, couldn't they at least hold it off until AFTER the tournament? I watch these shows to learn about the games and get excited about my favorite sports weekend of the year. I don't need someone raining on my parade.

I always defended Knight and had a lot of respect for him as a coach, but I don't know why anyone thought this was a good idea. Maybe ESPN hired him just for the name recognition. They must have been worried that no one would watch college basketball this March without Bob Knight in the picture.

Oh, and UNC's good this year.

The pick: North Carolina

(8) Indiana vs. (9) Arkansas

Indiana looked like a team that could go as far as the Final Four, and then the Kelvin Sampson situation happened. While that whole thing was running its course, the Hoosiers won some pretty big games. Somehow, they weren't distracted by their coach going through the process of losing his job.

But, once the dust settled, their season started to tank. The team fell pretty flat to end the regular season and then lost their first Big Ten tournament game.

Arkansas plays hard. They went toe-to-toe with Tennessee to get a 92-91 win in the SEC tournament. In their run to the tournament final, they showed the ability to scramble if needed and buckled down defensively when it was necessary. The body of work points toward Indiana, but I expect the Razorbacks to come out and play well in this game.

The pick: Arkansas

(5) Notre Dame vs. (12) George Mason

I love nothing more than an upset—and George Mason made the best Cinderella run ever—but I have no inclination to pick them in this game. I watch a lot of the CAA, even though my alma mater (JMU) has been awful for a few years, and the only team in the league that could have won a tournament game is VCU, but the Rams didn't have the resume to get in this year, and frankly didn't deserve to.

The Patriots should be commended for winning the CAA tournament, but this matchup is terrible for them. The biggest reason: Notre Dame is good. Really good.

It's hard to explain their no-show in the Big East tournament, but I think they can get it back on track. If Luke Harangody played in the ACC, he'd get obsessed over by the media as much as Hansbrough. He is the real deal.

The Irish beat Kansas State, Pitt, West Virginia, Connecticut, and finished 14-4 in the Big East. Barring a fluke, they should handle Mason.

The pick: Notre Dame

(4) Washington State vs. (13) Winthrop

It's easy to fall into what I like to call "The Valparaiso Trap." It involves giving into the urge to pick a team for an upset just because the team won in the NCAA the previous year.

I don't like Winthrop's matchup against Washington State at all. Both teams play a very slow, defensive-minded game. UCLA is the only team to crack 80 points against WSU, and Winthrop is giving up less than 60 per game for the year.

Only 55 points could win this thing, so don't expect Winthrop to get run out of the gym. Washington State let Oral Roberts hang around last year by playing their low-scoring style.

The problem for Winthrop is that games between teams of similar styles are less likely to feature an upset. There's a reason why the Cougars have the better seed: They've been the better team this season. And so, against a team who isn't going to try to break their comfort zone, I expect them to come out with a win.

The pick: Washington State

(6) Oklahoma vs. (11) St. Joseph's

This game seems weirder and weirder every time I look at it. It's really hard to know what to make of either one of these teams. Oklahoma had a three-game run where they beat Arkansas, Gonzaga, and West Virginia, but they lost their last game to Texas by 28 points.

They also lost to tournament teams USC, Kansas State, and Memphis out of conference, and finished 9-7 in a pretty tough Big 12. They played a pretty fierce schedule and came out with some good wins and a relatively high number of losses.

They're good, but there's nothing spectacular or even memorable about this team. They seem to play pretty tough defense, which is typical of a Capel-coached team. They've certainly played in more big games than St. Joe's this year, and that could be a factor.

St. Joe's is a strange team too. They only went 97 in the A-10, but beat Xavier twice and crushed Villanova by 20 points. I watched the A-10 final against Temple, and they were very underwhelming. There's been a lot of talk about their offensive firepower, but I didn't see it in that game. Then again, a lot of those title games get sloppy as teams fight for their postseason lives.

I've debated over this one quite a bit, but I'm just going to break it down to two things: Defense wins games and 9-7 in the Big 12 is better than 9-7 in the A-10.

The pick: Oklahoma

(3) Louisville vs. (14) Boise State

It is incredibly tempting to write in Oklahoma vs. Boise State in the second round, but there won't be a Fiesta Bowl rematch. I saw the WAC title game—Boise tried to give it away five or six different times.

The game went to three OTs, but should have been won in regulation. Each session ended up with the Broncos blowing a lead through a missed free throw, a turnover, poor defense, or some other mistake. That night, I decided to not pick them to win a tournament game under any set of circumstances.

And now they've drawn Louisville.

Don't be fooled by their one-and-done in the Big East tournament; the Cardinals are the real deal. Just like Notre Dame, they're poised to make a run despite their poor showing at the Garden. They finished the regular season as one of the hottest teams in the nation before a three-point loss at Georgetown.

Pitino is not a coach who is prone to be an upset victim. His team has the talent and discipline to beat anybody in America, and it's laughable to picture Boise State winning this game.

The pick: Louisville

(7) Butler vs. (10) South Alabama

Butler got screwed with this No. 7 seed. They went 29-3 with two losses in their league and a loss to Drake on BracketBuster Saturday. They beat every other team they could schedule, including Florida State by 11 and Ohio State by 19.

This is a team that took care of business, was ranked in the polls all year, and won their conference (both regular season and tournament). Short of going undefeated, what else could they have done?

But that doesn't matter at all now. What matters is where they go from here. As far as this game, South Alabama is the highest seeded team that I have never seen play. I guess they deserved to get in, but I don't know anything about them other than what I've seen on paper.

The bottom line is, nothing I can find in research is going to ever convince me to pick them over Butler, so I'm not going to bother to look up anything. I think Butler has the potential to do well in the tournament again this year.

The pick: Butler

(2) Tennessee vs. (15) American University

Let me get this out of the way: Brian Gilmore, AU's sixth man, was a high school friend, a teammate on my swim team, and an avid fan of 2 Skinnee J's (my favorite band). I can admit when I'm biased, and I certainly am in this case.

That being said, I genuinely believe the Eagles have the best chance of any 15 seed—and not just because I want to announce "I know that guy!" to everyone in Buffalo Wild Wings if it happens.

Let's start with the coaching. Bruce Pearl has a good history thus far in the Big Dance. He's taken four teams to the tournament, two at Tennessee and two at Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Pearl has a 3-1 first round record, and has taken each school to the Sweet Sixteen one time. (The one first round loss was decided by that excruciating missed layup when UWM played Notre Dame.)

In the first two rounds, the most crucial factors are a team's mindset and level of preparedness. Pearl's teams seem to reflect his loose, but prepared disposition. He has clearly shown a knack for getting his teams ready for the crazy beginning to the tournament. Basically, Pearl can coach a team up for the first weekend.

Why can the Eagles win? Well, unlike many teams who enter the tournament as a low seed and are dancin' for the first time in a while, American has a coach with just as much success in the tournament as the opponent's coach.

Jeff Jones made five trips to the NCAA tournament, going 3-2 in the first round. He also had two Sweet Sixteen teams and took a team to within a game of the Final Four. He knows what it takes to get a team prepared to be successful in the tournament, which should offset the fact that no one on the team has played in the Big Dance.

Most of these low-seeded teams lose the game within three minutes out of the tunnel, when they see those CBS Sports banners, famous coaches, and All Americans across the court, but Jones should have AU in a good frame of mind to be successful.

While the Eagles may not beat themselves, that's only the initial battle. They still have to beat Tennessee.

Hopefully Jones has the guys studying everything that can about the Volunteers. This is one of the few distinct advantages a lower seeded coach can give his team: better preparation than their opponent. I'm sure Tennessee will see some game film of American, but there's no way they will be mentally preparing themselves as well as AU if Jones has the team doing everything thoroughly. This is their Super Bowl. It would shock me to see a rattled, unprepared American team take the floor.

Also, despite what the Volunteers will tell the media, there is no way that any team with a No. 1 or No. 2 seed isn't looking ahead (at least somewhat). These guys have played on national television against other Top 10 teams, been on Sportscenter all year, and been quoted on ESPN.com after every game.

Maybe a professional athlete can completely isolate themselves, but I don't see how a 19-year-old can avoid getting at least some sense of complacency and self-importance when they're a big time athlete. There has to be a little part of these guys' brains that thinks they are simply entitled to a win against a Patriot League team, even if they try to suppress the notion. If they come out flat, American could build some confidence and not let the game get out of hand.

Xs and Os wise, the Patriots objective is simple: Slow these guys down!

Tennessee is coming off a loss to Arkansas in the SEC tournament where they still scored 91 points. Besides that game, the Vols have three other losses. They fell to Texas, a team with Final Four potential; Vanderbilt, who played their best game of the year in front of a crazy home crowd; and Kentucky, who beat the Vols once and also played them in another close game.

With Kentucky being the lowest ranked team to beat UT, analyzing their approach is most relevant to figuring out what American has to do. UK won 72-66 and only lost 63-60 in Knoxville (where UT didn't lose all year). Kentucky held this Tennessee offense in the 60s twice. In those two games, the Vols shot 38 percent and 40 percent respectively. In contrast, they shot 55 percent in this weekend's Arkansas loss.

The Eagles need to keep UT close to that 40 percent number to hang in this game. How they do it? The answer is simple, and anyone who watches basketball knows it: stop their transition, make them work for every shot, and don't give up offensive rebounds. In other words, a team will miss more shots if the shots are more difficult.

This is easier said than done. That's where preparation and confidence come into play. American played a gutsy, almost turnover-free game in their conference final. Here's hoping the Eagles duplicate that effort and pull off the upset of the tournament!

The pick: American University