Why Alabama Won't Be No. 1 in 2012 BCS Standings All Season Long

Randy ChambersAnalyst IOctober 18, 2012

COLUMBIA, MO - OCTOBER 13:  Head coach Nick Saban watches from the sidelines during the game against the Missouri Tigers at Faurot Field/Memorial Stadium on October 13, 2012 in Columbia, Missouri.  (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Alabama has been receiving all of the love from the pollsters throughout the year, receiving every single first place vote in the latest AP Poll. So you knew it was only a matter of time before the Crimson Tide would be considered the top team in the BCS rankings, and that is exactly what happened when the first poll was released last week.

I wrote an article back in the beginning of the season on why Alabama would never give up the top spot in either poll, but of course, teams change and life goes on. The Crimson Tide is still one of the more talented teams in the country, but the competition is fierce and we haven't seen much from this team to ensure why it is worthy of a top spot in the polls.

While Alabama still controls its own destiny for another national championship, here is why it won't remain the No. 1 team in the BCS much longer.




History says that Alabama will not remain in the top spot throughout the rest of year. It also shows that there is a solid chance that the Crimson Tide won't even win the BCS National Championship this season. 

According to Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports, the top team in the first BCS rankings does not have a good track record as far as keeping that No. 1 spot or even winning that crystal ball at the end of the year.

In the previous 14 first-week BCS standings, the teams that debuted 1-2 finished that way exactly twice (Southern California-Texas in 2005 and LSU-Alabama in 2011). Only six times did the initial 1-2 contain the eventual BCS champion. Five other times the first set of 1-2 teams contained the championship game loser.

There are many talented teams behind the Crimson Tide just waiting for Nick Saban and co. to slip up. And with a lot of football left on the schedule, you have to believe somebody will jump them at some point in the polls.



Upset Madness


Are we just going to be that bold and say that Alabama will end up running the table until reaching the possible SEC Championship Game?

I'm sure you could do that, but if college football has taught us anything, it is that no game nowadays should be considered a lock, especially the next six that Alabama has on tap.

Starting next week, Alabama plays three ranked teams in a row, with one of those games taking place in Death Valley. You can say what you want about LSU, but the Tigers have won seven of the last 10 meetings and seem to have found themselves in last week’s victory over the South Carolina Gamecocks.

There is still a solid Texas A&M team that is playing extremely well with freshman quarterback Johnny Manziel leading the way. And you also can't just brush off an undefeated Mississippi State team that has the 25th best defense in the country at the moment.

If you were a betting man, you probably like Alabama in nearly all of those matchups, but anybody would be foolish to consider that the Crimson Tide are just going to roll right through the remaining SEC schedule. We have seen many Top 5 programs already fall in the polls due to an upset, Alabama shouldn't be considered any less vulnerable at this point in the year.



They Haven't Played Anybody

It's been said more times than John Madden has talked about Brett Favre, but it is absolutely true.

Who has Alabama beaten to deserve the No. 1 ranking?

Now I'm not here to argue if Alabama is the most talented team in the country, but you have to knock off somebody worth mentioning to be considered the top dog. Michigan is just an average team like the rest of the Big Ten Conference. Arkansas lost to Rutgers earlier in the year and rumor has it that the Razorbacks are now practicing against community colleges to build their confidence back up.

The scheduling issues aren't Alabama's fault, as Michigan and Arkansas were supposed to be good in 2012 but they aren't. The BCS judges you off what you have done throughout the season, and while Alabama looks like a championship contender, besides USC, it is the only program in the Top 10 of the BCS that hasn't beaten a ranked team.

Beat LSU in a few weeks and then this conversation will end.



Florida Will Likely Take That Spot

We can make this really simple and say Alabama will lose that top spot as early as this Sunday. The computers and other polls absolutely love the Gators already, a team that that has beaten two ranked teams and jumped Oregon because of strength of schedule.

And while the résumé is already impressive, Will Muschamp and company will go for a second victory over a Top 10 team this weekend. Florida hosts the South Carolina Gamecocks and if the Gators end up winning this weekend, there is little doubt that there will be a new No. 1 team in the BCS poll.

Despite losing to LSU last week, South Carolina is still one of the better defensive teams college football has to offer and is still highly respected as a true SEC contender.

With two possible victories over top notch teams and Alabama still searching for that marquee win, Florida will take over the No. 1 spot if it is victorious this weekend.