A professor of mine once said, “Be bold with your predictions—that way people will listen.”
Thus, it would be easy to pick St. Joseph’s or Kansas State as my sleeper. If you do your homework, you’ll notice that outstanding teams like those have almost a coin-flip’s chance of reaching the second round and a fighting chance at a Sweet 16 berth.
No, see, it takes real moxie to side with my sleeper: the 16th-seeded Portland State Vikings. The Vikes (can I call you that? We hardly know each other) won the Big Sky conference tournament and face the No. 1-seeded Kansas Jayhawks.
According to Basketball Prospectus, PSU has a scant 1.5 percent chance of upsetting the Jayhawks and a less than thrilling 0.32 percent chance of making the Sweet 16.
I even had to post a picture of the Minnesota Vikings at the top there, because there were no pictures of Portland State Vikings.
Wait, there was one?
OK—it’s fixed now.
The Vikings are making their first trip to the big dance, after their victory over the always bridesmaids Northern Arizona Lumberjacks. Who knew there was so much forestry in northern Arizona?
I should tell you the Big Sky has produced a few Cinderellas previously, so they're not new to this whole upset business. The best example of which was Weber State’s shocker over UNC in 1999.
The Vikes feature Jeremiah Dominguez, a 5-and-a-half foot scoring machine. This way, we can all cheer “for the little guy.” Seriously, though, Dominguez drops about 14 ppg and shoots a redonkulous 44 percent from beyond the 3-point line. For a guy hoisting up 173 of those puppies this season, that’s some major damage.
As much as this post has possessed a quasi-facetious tone, opponents, especially Kansas, ought not take these Vikes too lightly. PSU can be coldly efficient on the offensive end, where they net 110 points per 100 possessions.
They shoot 40 percent from three (good for 10th in the nation) and 52 percent from two.
If Kansas comes out sleepwalking, they could find themselves in a hole quickly. Mid-major teams that shoot well from three can be dangerous in the first round. One hot shooting performance can doom a major conference foe quickly.
Now, aren’t you ready to root for the little guy?
Gooooooooo Vikes!
(All stats courtesy of kenpom.com.)
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6 months ago
i know the little guy personally and its his time to shine everybody has hated on him from the bigging of time but watch out kansas because portland state is going to shock the world and miah or JD is leading the way. i cant wait to see dickie v's face or bob night.
6 months ago
This article makes me laugh. As much as I would love to see it happen to Kansas, there is no way a No. 16 seed will upset the Jayhawks. When was the last time a No. 16 won in the tournament?? Never. Good imagination but it's not happening.
6 months ago
ben great article. keep up the great work!!! and jake, it did happen. not in the mens tourney but in the womens tourney. no i know that two tournaments are totally different but just throwing it out there that in 1998, (16) Harvard beat (1) Stanford in the first round.
6 months ago
Yeah ben big difference between men and the womens tournament. Won't happen this year at least. One day it will.
6 months ago
NAU is actually quite forested ... Although, I had a friend in high school who decided to go their purely based upon the dry climates ability to straighten her hair.
6 months ago
Ben, if Portland State wins, you will be an oracle, divinely inspired by the sweetest of the college basketball Muses. Here's to you, bold upset-predicting man!
As a side note to those laughing at Ben's prediction, people laughed at me last year when I had Texas A&M Corpus Christi knocking off Wisconsin. Wisconsin was awful and didn't take command of the game until the midway point of the second half, and only won by a handful. If Weber State can knock off UNC, Portland State can knock off Kansas!
6 months ago
Is it too late to change my pick?
6 months ago
The refs hosed them out of this one.
6 months ago
anybody can do some research, find high points, and say that this team is going to be a huge upset, but everybody knows that it is never going to happen. (even the "ballsy" guy who wrote this)
sorry Ben Alliare
P.S. the vikes are GONE
from 6 months ago
nonody likes a brazen chalk picker, Joe. Nobody.
6 months ago
i wasn't that brazen, cuz i like winning the pool. but i will say that game was to close considering PSU could buy a bucket for 10 minutes in that first half. and shot a very unlike them 38.5% for the game. if they had not been shell shocked by the moment early that game would have been close which in a 16-1 match up is all you can hope for. not the most retarded pick ive ever seen. Mississippi Valley going to the Elite Eight on the other hand, not so much.
6 months ago
You guys should familiarize yourselves with the phrase "tongue-in-cheek."
6 months ago
Haha did indeed take some real moxie with this one.
I just hope for the sake of your bracket you still picked Kansas
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