New York Jets running back Shonn Greene had a breakout game Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts as he propelled the Jets to victory 35-9, but are we buying or selling Greene's fantasy stock after the performance?
To be clear, Greene has been in the league for four years now, so this performance was his breakout game for the 2012 season, a season that has seen Greene develop into one of the most unpredictable and untrustworthy fantasy players in the NFL.
Greene appears to be on the right track, but let's take a closer look at whether or not we should suddenly believe in Greene.
Entering the matchup with the Colts, Greene had compiled only 217 yards and one touchdown in five games for a measly 2.9 yards per carry average.
Green has horrific statistics, and any observer could see just how slow and lethargic Greene looked on most plays. His inability to produce hurt the Jets mightily as opposing defenses didn't fear him and were able to place more men in coverage to stop passes.
Greene was taken moderately high in most fantasy drafts because of his potential to finally have a breakout season, but that hadn't occurred until Sunday against the Colts.
Breakout Game Against the Colts
Against the Colts, Greene rushed 32 times for 161 yards and three touchdowns, which was a career high in yardage. The massive game suddenly brought his season totals to 378 yards and four touchdowns—still not amazing for six games, but much better than in previous games.
Unfortunately for Greene, the performance came against the Colts, a team that, going into the matchup, was giving up 136 yards per game on the ground—good for a 26 out of 32 ranking in the NFL.
Still, Greene's performance was outstanding and the main reason the Jets were able to come away with the victory. The Colts are by no means a good team, but the defense eventually only focused on Greene, and he was still able to beat them repeatedly.
Buying or Selling?
Greene had a breakout day, but we've seen this from NFL running backs before. A massive performance against a mediocre defense is the perfect time to sell an NFL running back high.
Let's look at Greene's upcoming schedule. With matchups against the New England Patriots, the Miami Dolphins and Seattle Seahawks in the next three games alone, Greene is going to revert to his old ways.
Greene was not a No. 1 or No. 2 fantasy back before the game against Indy, and he most certainly does not play the Colts each week. In four years, he has gone over 1,000 yards once, and 2012 is not looking like it will be his second time.
Add in the fact the Jets are simply a miserable team this year—meaning they will be playing from behind and throwing to try to get back in games, drastically reducing Greene's carries—and now is the perfect time to sell Greene to an unsuspecting buyer.
Verdict: Sell—unload Greene while you can.