I've posted a set of five articles dissecting the whole tournament. If you like this one, make sure to check the others out!

 

Midwest Region


(1) Kansas vs. (16) Portland State

This matchup is part of the first set of games to tip off, at around 12:30 on Thursday, along with Xavier/Georgia and Michigan State/Temple. I imagine that most markets in the country won't be watching the KU game for long. There's no reason to suspect that the Big XII champs will get much of a test in this one.

The pick: Kansas


(8) UNLV vs. (9) Kent State

Real quick analysis since Kansas is going to handle the winner of this game: Lon Kruger took UNLV on their best run in a while last year, making it to the Sweet 16 out of nowhere. But his kid (see: I'm not even spending enough time on this game to look up his first name—I make no claims to be a true journalist) was the best player on that team, and he's gone.

Kent State built their season with one win, when they went out west and won at St. Mary's in the BracketBuster. Before this, no one had noticed them nationally. And that was with good reason; their only other win over a tournament team were early season wins over GMU and Coppin State. I'm incredibly underwhelmed by this matchup, and it's at the same time as the Oral Roberts game. My attention won't ever be directed towards the TV that's showing this game, and I have no good reason to pick either team over the other.

The pick: UNLV


(5) Clemson vs. (12) Villanova

Going by the seeds, Villanova was the last at-large team to sneak into this tournament. However, they come into this thing as arguably the best #12 seed. They won what amounted to a play-in game against Syracuse last week, and have had some impressive performances in the Big East. But Clemson has had a great year in the ACC, including their impressive win over Duke in the ACC tournament. This is definitely the best team Oliver Purnell has had at Clemson, despite the fact that they still can't shoot free throws. It's ridiculous that Clemson has been so terrible from the line for like five years in a row.
   

Both teams have come out of tough leagues to get where they are right now, but Clemson's season has been more impressive. They proved themselves as much in their losses to UNC as in any victories; twice taking them to overtime and losing a really close ACC final. And for the first time in a few years, the Tigers picked up some good non-conference wins, beating Mississippi State and Purdue.

This team has "gotten over the hump" so to speak. For the past few seasons, they have been capable of beating anybody on any given night. This year, they are winning games more consistently.   

Nova got the wins they needed to get in order to make the tournament. They beat UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Temple, Mason, and picked up two wins over Syracuse. They made it out of the tough Big East and lived to tell the tale. However, they lost a lot of games and they don't really compare favorably to a Clemson team playing their best, and Clemson has shown the ability to show up for most every game this year.

The pick: Clemson


(4) Vanderbilt vs. (13) Siena

For a minute, I considered investigating Sienna's possibilities here. I watched their dominant MAAC championship game win, remembered them beating Stanford, and knew that I had seen something else about them this year. Then I checked their schedule and had an "Aha!" moment. They were the team that JMU scored 100 against this year. Yep, they lost to the Dukes 88 - 100. But this was very early in the year, and I'd imagine that they've improved.

These teams from the MAAC always draw my interest because they always put up good offensive numbers. But then when they get to the tournament, the buckets aren't easy to come by, and they don't play defense well enough to compete at this level.
   

Vanderbilt has kind of slipped off the radar; I'm not sure if anyone even remembers that they were 16 - 0 in January, or even that they finished 26-7. They're not getting any hype at all, which I always view as a positive thing. And they play at Vanderbilt, a school who is just now gaining a renewed heavy fan interest.

This isn't Kentucky, where the players have fans/alumni/boosters breathing on their necks and critiquing every little thing about the team. Vandy has great support from their people without that sort of pressure.

The problem is, their good wins came at home in front of these same fans. The Commodores didn't go play in any invitational tournaments, and only played three road games out of conference, beating Toledo, Bradley, and DePaul on the road. I guess a team can afford to schedule like that with the RPI boost that the SEC games will give, but what does it do for their chances in the postseason?

In the SEC tournament, they beat a bad Auburn team by 11 and then lost to Arkansas, who had also beaten them earlier in the year. So they finished 10-6 in the league: 8-0 at home, 2-6 on the road. And out of conference, they only went on the road to barely beat teams who aren't in the postseason.

When this team steps off the bus in Tampa, Florida, how are they going to play with any confidence? I think all that confidence they built up by beating Tennessee will be right back in the arena where they left it.

The pick: Vanderbilt
(I know this contradicts that last paragraph, but they can beat Sienna. In round two though, it's all over for Vandy.)


(6) Southern California vs. (11) Kansas State

These teams are pretty much in the same boat. They both were fortunate enough to land a superstar recruit, and without these two freshmen (O.J. Mayo for USC and Michael Beasley for K-State) neither of the teams would be in the position that they're in.

This game is intriguing, mostly because of this individual matchup. It's hard to avoid at least considering if the committee put these two teams together to make an intriguing TV game, despite the yearly claims that such factors don't affect seeding. Beasley is probably the better player, but USC is playing leaps and bounds better than K-State right now. It looks like Tim Floyd has this team in good shape coming towards the finish line of the season.

They established themselves as being a top-level Pac-10 team, almost culminating with a win over UCLA in the tournament. The Wildcats, on the other hand, are 5-7 since February, with only one road win and no wins against tournament teams. In that span, they missed opportunities to knock off Baylor, Kansas, Texas, and Texas A&M. Despite their 19 year olds heading in the same direction (i.e. towards shaking David Stern's hand,) I see teams heading in the opposite directions.

The pick: Southern Cal


(3) Wisconsin vs. (14) Cal State Fullerton

My first reaction when looking at my copy of the bracket was, "Wisconsin is 29 - 4?" Somehow this team has avoided the limelight all year, despite rolling through the Big Ten (regular season and tournament) and posting a lot of good wins. They beat Texas back in December, and it seems like this game has been long forgotten. But I bet the Badgers didn't forget, and they probably felt at least somewhat disrespected by a number three seed.

If I were coach, I'd make sure they saw that all four-number two seeds didn't win their league tournaments, and that two of didn't even win their regular season titles. And I'm sure the players see Texas, the team they beat, on that number two line. For a team that's had a nearly unblemished season and comes in on a ten-game win streak, it should be beneficial to have this chip on their shoulder.

As for the Titans from CSF, they should feel good about making their first NCAA appearance in a long time. But there hasn't really been anything impressive about the Big West conference this year, and CSF didn't do anything noteworthy out of conference.

The pick: Wisconsin


(7) Gonzaga vs. (10) Davidson

At first glance of the tournament field, this was the game that had me most excited. It's a matchup of two teams from smaller leagues that have established their place as programs that have the ability to compete with teams from the major conferences. But after some thought, I realized that it kind of sucks. With the number of at-large bids for mid-majors decreasing, it is especially aggravating to know that one of these teams will be out after the first round.

The flip side is that one will win and probably get a shot at Georgetown, but I would have liked to have seen each of these teams try to knock off a team from a major conference. Conspiracy theorists are already making claims that the NCAA is playing a numbers game, reducing the number of mids that get out of the first round to try to prevent another George Mason-esque run.

It's impossible to say if there's any validity to this idea, but it is still fun to watch the mid-majors play those historically strong programs. But, this game figures to be a really good contest.   

Davidson is lead by Stephen Curry, a lights out shooter who wanted to follow in the footsteps of his father (Dell Curry) and play at Virginia Tech, but wasn't offered a full ride. While Tech probably regrets the decision, things couldn't have worked out much better for Curry. As a freshman last season, he had the opportunity to immediately get a ton of play-making opportunities. He's scoring 25 a game and has brought Davidson back to the tournament for the second year in a row.

This season, they lost to UNC by four, Duke by six, and UCLA by 12. They also lost to Western Michigan, Charlotte, and NC State out of conference. I point these losses out because their OOC record was only 3-6, they just went 23-0 in the Southern Conference. (That seems like a ridiculous schedule in an 11 team league, to have all teams play twice).

So credit is due for thoroughly dominating a conference, but look at the next best teams: Appalachian State and Georgia Southern. If this were 1- AA football that'd be impressive, but we're talking the big dance here. Their only really good win was against Winthrop in the BracketBuster game, which looks good now that Winthrop won their league.    

Gonzaga has lurked in the shadows of the limelight this year, not receiving the same sort of media overexposure as they have in other years. The Zags have had a good campaign though, picking up wins over UConn, St. Joe's, Virginia Tech, and Western Kentucky. More impressive is that, in posting their 25-7 record, they lost six games to tournament teams and one to Texas Tech (all the way back when Bob Knight was still their coach.) They lost to Memphis by eight and Tennessee by 10.    

Gonzaga has always gone out and played great non-conference schedules, then strolled through their conference schedule waiting for the big dance. This year, with USD and St. Mary's both being strong, the Zags had some real competition.

Coming together with Memphis to schedule a late January game was also great for both of those teams, who typically tower over their conferences. Stephen Curry is the exact kind of player I look for when trying to pick an upset, and in my mind I can just see him hitting a buzzer beater that will become a part of the cheesy "One Shining Moment" montage.

Davidson has hung with some top-notch teams this year, but so has Gonzaga. The difference is Gonzaga has beaten a few of them. Davidson hasn't lost a game in 2008, but I have a bad feeling about picking them. It's too obvious. This is that one game this year where, on Thursday, all the guys at work who haven't talked about basketball once all season will come in saying, "I think that Davidson is a good sleeper pick." They're even a 2 point favorite in Vegas as of Tuesday night. Something just isn't right here.

The pick: Gonzaga


(2) Georgetown vs. (15) UMBC

Even if the Hoyas come out ice cold, they can rely on Hibbert to dominate inside. There's no one on UMBC's team that can matchup with him. They'd have to crash everyone inside, and if that happens, the Hoyas can shoot well enough to handle the game. However they have to do it, Georgetown should control this game.

The pick: Georgetown