Detailed NCAA Tourney Picks Analysis: West Region
I've posted a set of five articles dissecting the whole tournament. If you like this one, make sure to check the others out!
West Region
(1) UCLA vs. (16) Mississippi Valley State
I only know two things about the Delta Devils: they have a cool nickname, and Jerry Rice went to school there. What I know about UCLA is that they are probably the best basketball team in the country right now. I wish someone would start giving Berman-style nicknames to athletes in every sport, and start with Kevin Love. There's a ton of possibilities. My vote is for Kevin Love "Is a Battlefield." As for this game, it shouldn't be close for more than five minutes.
The pick: UCLA
(8) BYU vs. (9) Texas A&M
This was the last game I filled in. I'm really not sure what to do with it. But I don't think either team can beat UCLA anyway. I'm not sure about this one, but I've seen A&M play more and they're in a better conference.
The pick: Texas A&M
(5) Drake vs. (12) Western Kentucky
Drake is this year's team that most fans love despite having not seen them play very much. The WKU Hilltoppers (this field is loaded with great team names) earned their bid by winning the Sun Belt tournament, and had a decent season. They have this guy named Courtney Lee who is a legit big-time athlete. Go search YouTube and watch him dunk. He’s an exciting player who is super athletic.
But Drake pretty much dominated the perennially strong Missouri Valley conference in a down year for the league. Their coach, Keno Davis, has to be commended for taking a historically below-average team and having this much success.
They surprised most experts by going to Butler and picking up a win in the most important BracketBuster game of the year, and they probably earned their seed (and lowered Butler's) because of that game. They didn't play a schedule like Butler's, but by winning that game they showed that they compete with a seasoned team. Despite being new to the national scene, it would surprise me to see Drake give in to the pressure of the situation.
The pick: Drake
(4) Connecticut vs. (13) San Diego
USD earned their way into this tournament by winning the WCC title on their home floor. Without that home court advantage, they'd probably be preparing for the NIT. They've got a long trip to Tampa, and should be surrounded by UConn fans, who typically travel well. It looks like they're a team who has already accomplished a goal that has made their season a success, win or lose this game.
Add UConn to the list of good teams that disappointed in the Big East tournament. They don't have the same swagger or air of invincibility of a typical UConn team, which might be a good thing in this game. They should be motivated to improve upon their conference tournament performance, and not brimming with the over-confidence that can leave a team prone to an upset.
The pick: Connecticut
(6) Purdue vs. (11) Baylor
I see Baylor as the Vanderbilt of the Big XII; they've come from being a bottom-feeder to a team that has the potential to win almost any game in their league. Dave Bliss has done an awesome job turning around a program that was in shambles when he arrived. Their big win was the five-OT win at Texas A&M; that really put them on the map.
Purdue had a really good year, finishing second in the Big Ten, but I'm going to go with my gut on this one. I just like Baylor, and their story is too good for me to get away from as I made this pick
The pick: Baylor
(3) Xavier vs. (14) Georgia
Georgia got a gift with this seed. Look at the other number three seeds they could have played: Louisville, Stanford, and Wisconsin. I don't think the Musketeers have nearly the talent or potential for tournament success as those other teams. The Bulldogs really got it together in the SEC tournament, and played their best basketball under an unusual set of circumstances. Not only did they make a four game run as a bottom seed, they won two games in a day! No team in the modern era has ever been put in that situation, and the lowest seeded team possible was the one to step up and step up to the challenge.
I just don't get the hype for Xavier, or the A-10 in general. The RPI is in love with this league, and a big factor in that may be that Dayton had such early season success and ended up taking losses to all of these other A-10 teams. The Musketeers didn't even reach their league final, and they're rewarded with the third seed in this region. Maybe I'm just clueless, but I don't get what makes Xavier better than Butler.
I hate to keep harping on my perceived snub of Butler, but Butler was ranked higher in the polls and won almost every big game that they were given the chance to play. On the other hand, Xavier lost by 22 to Arizona State, lost to Tennessee, and had a bad loss to Miami (OH) University.
They didn't really dominate their league, which I think was overrated, and their out of conference results were moderately impressive but not overwhelming. Xavier did crush Kansas State early in the year, before the Wildcats really hit their stride with freshman Marcus Beasley. But still, I don't think the Musketeers are as good as their seeding.
On the other hand, Georgia had a miserable start to their season, and seemed poised to make the obligatory conference tournament appearance, pack it in, and then try to prepare to improve next year. Instead, they unexpectedly turned things around in a hurry.
Their wins in the SEC tournament matched the number that they picked up in the regular season. Once they got in a groove, they proved that they have the talent to compete with anyone.
This is a rare situation where the No. 14 seed might actually have better athletes than the number three seed. Despite the seeding discrepancy, I'm having trouble seeing who the better team really is in this game. That being said, it has become my thinking that these four game major conference tournament runs lead to a team being poised to bow out early in the big dance.
The pick: Xavier
(7) West Virginia vs. (10) Arizona
The Mountaineers had a very successful trip to New York in the Big East tournament, and should be instilled with some optimism about their potential to succeed in the NCAA tournament. They looked like a team that could win the Big East, until they were physically overmatched by Georgetown. But Arizona doesn't have a Roy Hibbert.
The Wildcats are a well-rounded team who got into this tournament despite having a year that didn't really live up to the standard for success that's been established for their program. A lot of people are pointing to their two losses to Arizona State as proof that they don't belong here, but they've probably had as good of a season as any other team that could fill the spot. That being said, it looks like the Mountaineers have a lot more upside than the Wildcats.
The pick: West Virginia
(2) Duke vs. (15) Belmont
The Great Danes have established themselves as an annual tournament team, but didn't move up from the No. 15 seed that they occupied a year ago. They've most likely gained a lot of composure from their prior tournament trips, and should be comfortable going into the game. But Duke is a good team this year, despite possessing many of the flaws that Coach K's teams have had in recent years, such as the lack of a completely dominant player.
It surprises me that none of the physically superior Tyler Hansbrough type players don't want to play for Duke, and that they can no longer land players who become first round draft picks. They still get a lot of McDonald's All-Americans and other highly-regarded players, but the best players in the country don't end up in Duke uniforms like they did in the 90's.
It would be interesting to dissect why this has happened, and it could even be Krzyzewski’s choice to not bring in kids that are just biding their time and don't plan to stay in college longer than a year.
There aren't any more Grant Hills or Tim Duncans who want to play on the basketball's big stage for four years and walk away with a degree from a great school. So we get to see guys like Greg Paulus suit up for Duke. But Paulus has gotten a lot better than he was two seasons ago.
That's the positive thing about the changed landscape of college basketball: a lot of these annual contenders are building programs around less talented players, because the best guys jump into the draft so quickly. So a lot of these coaches have to do more than throw great talent out on the floor.
And Coach K, despite being deemed everything from "overrated" to "the devil incarnate" by his detractors, has proven that he can mold talent to compete with the best teams in the nation.
Having Johnny Dawkins and Wojo as assistant coaches has to help too; they're probably both more competent basketball minds than half of the D-1 head coaches. The teams that have had routine success in recent years, and not risen and fallen with the arrival and quick departure of top-notch talent, have been the ones with the best coaches.
The pick: Duke
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