Updated NFL Playoff Odds for Every Team After Week 6

Vincent FrankCorrespondent IOctober 15, 2012

Updated NFL Playoff Odds for Every Team After Week 6

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    To say that the first six weeks of the 2012 NFL regular season has been surprising would be a gross understatement. The Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers possess a combined six wins after winning 40 games last season. 

    Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals, Minnesota Vikings and Indianapolis Colts have combined for 10 wins. I am not sure anyone really saw this coming. If you did, please email me immediately so we can get down to brass tacks. I am sure to offer 20 percent commission. 

    As it is, most NFL teams have played six games, which represents about 38 percent of their 2012 season. We already have a good gauge as to which teams will be playing in January and which ones will be sitting at home in their sharp new Nike cuddlies. 

    So, let's take a look. 

    Remember, the algorithm is pretty simple here. Odds of teams in each conference will add up to 600 percent, representing the six playoff teams. If the NFC West has a 180 percent total after adding the four teams, it means I am giving that division an 80 percent chance of having a wild-card team. 

New York Giants

1 of 32

    Record: 4-2

    Postseason Chances: 60 Percent 

    Well, that was an impressive victory for the New York Giants on Sunday. I had the pleasure to be in attendance as they laid the hammer on what was a streaking San Francisco 49ers team. Both lines dominated as the Giants recorded six sacks and didn't allow Eli Manning to go down once. 

    If New York can play like this moving forward, it is in a really good position to grab the NFC East at the end of the season. Heck, the Giants are legit title contenders.

    It is all about consistency for this team. As we have seen in the past, the Giants are not the most consistent regular-season team in the NFL. 

     

     


Philadelphia Eagles

2 of 32

    Record: 3-3 

    Postseason Chances: 40 Percent 

    Another two turnovers from Michael Vick. The turnover-prone quarterback continues to light up that section of the stat line as the Philadelphia Eagles go into the bye reeling from a second consecutive loss. 

    More importantly, the Eagles blew a 10-point, fourth-quarter lead, allowing what was a struggling Detroit Lions team to come into Philadelphia and grab a win. 

    This team needs to play fundamentally sound football if it is going to have a chance at earning a playoff spot. Turnovers, penalties and untimely mistakes seem to be killing Philadelphia right now. 

     


Washington Redskins

3 of 32

    Record: 3-3

    Postseason Chances: 20 Percent

    Robert Griffin III was stellar once again, leading his team to a solid victory over the Minnesota Vikings and a .500 record through the first six games of the season. RGIII accumulated 320 total yards (138 on the ground) in a surprising 38-26 win. 

    While Washington still has an uphill battle in a difficult division, you can definitely feel that it is headed in the right direction. It obviously helps that the Redskins have that franchise quarterback leading what is an improved offense. 

     


Dallas Cowboys

4 of 32

    Record: 2-3

    Postseason Chances: 25 Percent

    Baby steps are good when you are a rebuilding team looking to improve throughout the course of a season. If you are a team expected to make the postseason, those baby steps really don't mean much. 

    Dez Bryant continued to hurt his team, dropping a pass on a two-point conversion attempt that would have tied the game for the Dallas Cowboys. It wasn't an easy catch, but one that he should have definitely come down with. 

    Prior to Sunday's game I wrote an article that focused on what Tony Romo needs to do to be considered the Cowboys' starting quarterback moving forward. While he played a much better game, the fact remains that they are 2-3 and in last place in the NFC East through six weeks. 

    That just isn't acceptable. 

     



Chicago Bears

5 of 32

    Record: 4-1

    Postseason Chances: 65 Percent

    While the Chicago Bears did gain sole possession of first in the NFC North during their bye, both the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions grabbed important victories. This crunches the lines between first and last in what promises to be a competitive division as the season progresses. 

    Still, you have to believe that Chicago is in a good position here. It possesses what appears to be a significantly improved offense with the additions of both Michael Bush and Brandon Marshall. Moreover, the Bears offensive line has protected Jay Cutler much more than we saw during the past couple seasons. 

    I like the Bears in this division. 

     


Minnesota Vikings

6 of 32

    Record: 4-2

    Postseason Chances: 40 Percent

    Christian Ponder has thrown four interceptions in his list two games after not throwing a single one during the first four weeks of the 2012 season. The Minnesota Vikings cannot overcome multiple turnovers per game if they are expecting to shock the football world and earn a playoff berth. 

    As we saw on Sunday, their red-zone offense needs to improve as well. You simply cannot win in the NFL on a consistent basis by kicking three consecutive field goals inside your opponent's 20. 

    All this being said, Minnesota has won four of its first six and should be taken seriously at this point in the season. 

     

     



Green Bay Packers

7 of 32

    Record: 3-3

    Postseason Chances: 55 Percent

    Wow, what an impressive victory by the Green Bay Packers. They went into Houston and laid a true beatdown on the previously undefeated Texans. 

    In their most impressive game of the season, Green Bay racked up over 420 yards as Aaron Rodgers threw a career-high six touchdown passes. This was the Packers team that we all expected to take the field when the season began. 

    There is no questioning the talent that this team possesses. If the Pack continue this dominating play for more than one week, they will be legit contenders come January. 

     


Detroit Lions

8 of 32

    Record: 2-3

    Postseason Chances: 20 Percent

    The Detroit Lions came through big time on Sunday with their season on the line. They overcame a 10-point deficit in the final quarter to defeat the Philadelphia Eagles in overtime. 

    Still, something just isn't right in the Motor City

    Matthew Stafford completed less than half of his passes and threw an interception. Despite gaining 135 yards on six receptions, Calvin Johnson came down with less than half the passes thrown in his direction.

    The bread and butter of this team is that Stafford-to-Johnson connection. If they fail to produce as a similar level to what we saw last season, Detroit will be in trouble moving forward. 

    More importantly, the Lions sit in last place in one of the most talented divisions in the NFL. 

     



Atlanta Falcons

9 of 32

    Record: 6-0

    Postseason Chances: 100 Percent

    For a third consecutive week the Atlanta Falcons struggled a great deal against a lesser opponent. This time it was at home against what has to be considered a weak Oakland Raiders team. 

    It took a last-second field goal to pull away a narrow victory. Matt Ryan uncharacteristically threw three interceptions and Atlanta's ground game compiled just 45 yards on 15 attempts. Simply put, it was not a convincing win by any stretch of the imagination. 

    Still, Atlanta boasts the only undefeated record in the NFL and has a four-game lead in the NFC South through six weeks. 

    I'm feeling pretty comfortable anointing the Falcons division champs at this stage in the season. 

     


Tampa Bay Buccaneers

10 of 32

    Record: 2-3

    Postseason Chances: 15 Percent

    I have no idea whether the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are this improved or whether they just beat a really bad Kansas City Chiefs team. Either way, their performance on Sunday was rather impressive. 

    Josh Freeman had his best game of the season, compiling three touchdowns and over 300 yards. Just as important, the combination of Doug Martin and LeGarrette Blount looked to be a really nice one-two punch. 

    Tampa also forced two Brady Quinn interceptions as rookie safety Mark Barron had his coming-out party to the tune of eight tackles and a pick. 

    This team might be a bit away from actual contention in the NFC, but there is no reason to question the young talent that it possesses. 

     

     



Carolina Panthers

11 of 32

    Record: 1-4

    Postseason Chances: Five Percent

    Last season wasn't a mirage for Cam Newton and company. Instead, it represented a young team that looked much better than its experience and talent level might have suggested. 

    This season is a much different story. 

    The Carolina Panthers have struggled through the first five games, continually kicking themselves in the back end with some untimely mistakes and horrendous game management. 

    Make no mistake about it: The talent is definitely here. The Panthers just need to mature and start playing better football. On that note, where are you DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart? It seems that duo has gone MIA thus far this season. 

     



New Orleans Saints

12 of 32

    Record: 1-4

    Postseason Chances: Five Percent

    Boy, what a uphill climb the New Orleans Saints have. They are nearly 2.5 games behind the myriad of different teams at 4-2 in the NFC, even after their big win against the San Diego Chargers last week. 

    There is no question as it relates to the talent that this team possesses. It can run off a streak of six or seven wins in a row. It all depends on coaching and the play of the defense. 

    In reality, anything short of a 9-2 finish will not get this team into the playoffs. Are you willing to bet on that? 

     



San Francisco 49ers

13 of 32

    Record: 4-2

    Postseason Chances: 65 Percent

    Immediately after I indicated that Alex Smith was a viable MVP candidate, he comes out and lays a complete egg against the New York Giants on Sunday. The San Francisco 49ers quarterback wasn't alone on this, as his entire team fell apart against the defending champs. 

    Regardless of how good New York might have played, the Giants don't come into Candlestick and win 26-3 without the home team imploding in every possible way. 

    Is this a continuing theme for San Francisco? Two impressive wins to start the season prior to a flop against the Minnesota Vikings. They then follow up another impressive two-game stretch by getting destroyed by the Giants at home. 

    Consistency could be a major issue here for this Jim Harbaugh-led squad. If that is the case, it could have a major issue coming out of what is an improved NFC West. 

    It's time this team plays up to the level of its talent on a consistent basis. It really is that simple. 

     



Arizona Cardinals

14 of 32

    Record: 4-2

    Postseason Chances: 30 Percent

    This just isn't good. The Arizona Cardinals lost to a Buffalo Bills team that failed to compete the last two weeks against the New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers...at home, no less.

    It's definitely not a good sign for a team that was 4-0 just two weeks ago. Adding injury to insult (literally), Kevin Kolb went down with a rib injury and didn't return. John Skelton, who took his place, completed just two of 10 passes with an interception. 

    Arizona now finds itself in the position of being in a first-place tie with two teams that are clearly better in terms of all-around talent. 

     



Seattle Seahawks

15 of 32

    Record: 4-2

    Postseason Chances: 35 Percent

    Could this team be any more inconsistent? What a solid win that was against the New England Patriots at home yesterday. Pete Carroll really couldn't ask for much more from his squad. 

    Rookie quarterback Russell Wilson led the Seattle Seahawks to two touchdown drives in the final half of the fourth quarter to overcome a 23-10 deficit against one of the best teams in the National Football League. 

    You really have to give credit where credit is due. 

    Seattle now travels to San Francisco to take on a 49ers team that is coming off a disappointing home loss against the New York Giants. In reality, this game could go a long way in determining the NFC West champion. 

    Check back then. 

     



St. Louis Rams

16 of 32

    Record: 3-3

    Postseason Chances: 20 Percent

    Being competitive on a consistent basis is a theme that seems to have defined the St. Louis Rams through the first six games of the season. Despite losing to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, Jeff Fisher and company seem to be in the midst of improving a great deal. 

    Sam Bradford threw for over 300 yards as the Rams recorded a whopping 462 yards of offense. Once again, they were limited by an inability to put six on the board. With an offense that doesn't possess a whole lot of talent, St. Louis needs to make the most of its opportunities. 

    While the Rams most likely won't contend in the NFC West this season, it is pretty obvious their future is bright. 

     



New England Patriots

17 of 32

    Record: 3-3

    Postseason Chances: 70 Percent

    Who would have imagined that the AFC East would have a four-way tie at 3-3 through the initial six weeks of the NFL season? Seriously, many of us had the New England Patriots nearly wrapping up this division by now. 

    Following a disappointing late-game meltdown against the Seattle Seahawks in the Pacific Northwest, Tom Brady and company find themselves in a precarious position, attempting to maintain a level of dominance in a division that seems to have improved a great deal. 

    At 3-3, we really have to start wondering if this is the same Patriots team we have grown accustomed to over the last decade. 

     



Miami Dolphins

18 of 32

    Record: 3-3

    Postseason Chances: 35 Percent

    Why is it that I think the Miami Dolphins could be a surprise playoff team in the AFC? Well, a lot of it has to do with their performance since losing to the Houston Texans in the season opener. 

    Miami has maintained a relatively high level of play during that span, with rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill playing pretty damn good football. 

    While the Dolphins defense continues to struggle against the pass, it had been stout against the run prior to Sunday's performance versus the St. Louis Rams. Miami gave up 162 rushing yards, leading to many questions.

    Will Miami be able to provide a late-season playoff push with this type of defensive performance? That is the major question here. 

    Still, the fact that we are not talking about Tannehill as the downfall of this team through six weeks has to be considered amazing. 

     


New York Jets

19 of 32

    Record: 3-3 

    Postseason Chances: 30 Percent

    You just cannot write a headline that sums up the New York Jets season thus far. They destroyed the Buffalo Bills in the season opener, got blown out by the San Francisco 49ers a couple of weeks later and then routed the Indianapolis Colts.

    Talk about up and down. 

    I really have no idea what to make about the Jets this season. They have a quarterback under center that seems to possess all the natural ability to be a franchise guy, but struggles with the nuances of the game. They have no real offensive threats due to a combination of injuries and lack of production. 

    Still, we are talking about a 3-3 team that is currently in a four-way tie for first in the AFC East. 

    Their odds could be five percent or 50 percent come November; I really don't have any idea at this point. 

    Please check back later. 



Buffalo Bills

20 of 32

    Record: 3-3 

    Postseason Chances: 25 Percent

    Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller combined for 141 yards on the ground, while Ryan Fitzpatrick didn't throw an interception. Yes, it does seem like we are back in September as it relates to this Buffalo Bills team. 

    Impressively, they came back from a two-game stretch of disastrous football to beat the Arizona Cardinals in the desert on Sunday. 

    I am still not sold on this team as a legit contender in the AFC East. Buffalo yielded 182 yards on 30 rushes against an Arizona team that was without the services of Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams. That is definitely not a good sign. 

     


Baltimore Ravens

21 of 32

    Record: 5-1

    Postseason Chances: 80 Percent

    The injury news for Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb is a big blow to Baltimore's Super Bowl aspirations.

    ESPN's Adam Schefter reported late Sunday that Webb suffered a torn ACL and will miss the remainder of the season. 

    As it relates to Lewis, Jay Glazer reported that he is likely to miss the remainder of the 2012 season due to torn triceps. 

    Even at 5-1, Baltimore is in a precarious position. It is missing three of its top defenders and just barely came away with a close win against a struggling Dallas Cowboys team. 

     

     

     



Cincinnati Bengals

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    Record: 3-3

    Postseason Chances: 40 Percent

    I'm not impressed with the Cincinnati Bengals over the course of the last two weeks. Following a disastrous loss to the Miami Dolphins last week, they struggled a great deal on Sunday. 

    Andy Dalton threw three more interceptions en route to a surprising 34-24 loss to the previously winless Cleveland Browns. 

    Defensively, it wasn't much better. Cincinnati yielded over 330 yards to a Cleveland offense that lacks many talented players. 

    It was all about ill-timed miscues and costly turnovers. Cincinnati might have the talent, but it still needs to play smart football. Through six weeks of the 2012 season the Bengals haven't. 

     



Pittsburgh Steelers

23 of 32

    Record: 2-3

    Postseason Chances: 50 Percent

    Bad football is bad football; it doesn't matter who plays it. The Pittsburgh Steelers have yet to play a complete football game through their first five outings of the season. 

    I just don't understand how they could lose to a Tennessee Titans team that had failed to compete in its previous two games. Really, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. 

    Without any sense of balance on offense, Pittsburgh was left relying on the arm of Ben Roethlisberger, who cannot do it all on his own. 

    Ike Taylor must be replaced in the defensive secondary; the problem is that Pittsburgh just doesn't have the personnel to fill in. Meanwhile, its offensive line continues to struggle giving Big Ben a strong pocket and opening holes for the running backs. 

    I don't like what I see here. 

     


Cleveland Browns

24 of 32

    Record: 1-5

    Postseason Chances: Five Percent

    As I had mentioned before, the Cleveland Browns continue to remain competitive on a consistent basis. The only difference this week was the fact that they were able to win a football game. Yes, the NFL will not have a winless team in 2012. 

    Cleveland intercepted Andy Dalton three times and played some opportunistic ball on offense to come away with its first win of the season. 

    In other good news, it doesn't appear that the injury suffered by Trent Richardson against the Cincinnati Bengals is too serious. Despite the win, Cleveland's success is all about the viability of its youngsters, Richardson included. 


Houston Texans

25 of 32

    Record: 5-1

    Postseason Chances: 95 Percent

    Every team is entitled to laying a complete egg, especially if that dud comes against a recent Super Bowl champion. 

    That being said, it is hard to come away with many positives for the Houston Texans performance after they were pummeled by the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. One of the top-rated defenses in the NFL allowed six touchdown passes to Aaron Rodgers. 

    Just how much has Brian Cushing's season-ending injury hurt them? 

    Time will tell considering they must go up against the Baltimore Ravens and Chicago Bears in two of their next three games. 

     


Indianapolis Colts

26 of 32

    Record: 2-3

    Postseason Chances: 30 Percent

    I have been incredibly high on the Indianapolis Colts over the course of the last couple weeks. The performance of Andrew Luck has caught the attention of the NFL. Most of this had to do with his dazzling game against the Green Bay Packers in a comeback effort last week. 

    Apparently I forgot that this team won two games last season, which enabled the Colts to acquire the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. 

    They allowed over 250 yards on the ground against one of the worst rushing attacks in the National Football League on Sunday. Just one of the many issues this team has moving forward. 

     


Tennessee Titans

27 of 32

    Record: 2-4

    Postseason Chances: 15 Percent

    Following two consecutive blowout losses, the Tennessee Titans came into Thursday night and defeated what has to be considered a struggling Pittsburgh Steelers team. 

    While their opponent is nowhere near the level they have been in the past, this was a huge win for Tennessee. 

    Its lackluster defense held Pittsburgh in check, while the Titans offense maintained some resemblance of balance. Tennessee still has a long way to go before it is considered possibly postseason contenders, but this win was a move in the right direction. 



Jacksonville Jaguars

28 of 32

    Record: 1-4

    Postseason Chances: Five Percent

    Sorry, but this team has little chance to be competitive in the near future. The Jaguars continually struggle in regards to every aspect of the game outside of running the ball. 

    Blaine Gabbert seems to have regressed over the course of the last couple weeks.

    My primary issue with this young team is defensive continuity and finding some resemblance of talent on offense. Until that happens, Jacksonville will be nothing more than a cellar-dweller. 

     


Denver Broncos

29 of 32

    Record: 3-3

    Postseason Chances: 60 Percent 

    A convincing comeback victory for Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos definitely upped their odds. This is a team that has the talent to win what is a weak AFC in 2012. 

    Of course it all starts and ends with Peyton Manning, who seems to be back to 2010 form. The future Hall of Fame quarterback has continued to get more comfortable in Denver's offense and is currently playing at an All-Pro level. 

    Their win on Monday may go a long way in determining who captures the AFC West. I am betting on the Broncos after their stellar performance in San Diego. 

San Diego Chargers

30 of 32

    Record: 3-3

    Postseason Chances: 40 Percent 

    While the San Diego Chargers might be "tied" for first in the AFC West, their implosion at the hands of the Denver Broncos on Monday night has to go down as one of the worst defeats of the Norv Turner era.

    On national television and in front of their home crowd, San Diego blew a 24-0 lead before allowing the Broncos to score 35 unanswered second half points.

    Realistically, the Chargers just aren't a good team right now. Turner and company continue to struggle when it counts, which has been a continuing theme for this franchise over the course of the last couple seasons.

    Still, at .500 they have a shot at the postseason. San Diego just needs to turn it around in relatively short order. Will it happen? That's the big question here.

     

Oakland Raiders

31 of 32

    Record: 1-4

    Postseason Chances: 15 Percent

    You have to hand it to the Oakland Raiders. They went into the Georgia Dome and nearly defeated the Atlanta Falcons in an impressive all-around performance. 

    Their much-maligned defense forced three Matt Ryan interceptions and limited Atlanta to 45 yards on just 15 rushes. Talk about a solid performance. 

    Still, Oakland remains a team in flux. The Raiders lack talent across the board and remain one of the least accomplished teams in the NFL. 

     



Kansas City Chiefs

32 of 32

    Record: 1-5

    Postseason Chances: Five Percent

    How does a team with as much talent as the Kansas City Chiefs get destroyed on a continual basis. Seriously, I am at a loss of words here. 

    Of course it starts at the quarterback position. Brady Quinn came in to replace the injured Matt Cassel, but threw two interceptions and was unable to lead the Chiefs on consistent scoring drives. 

    Meanwhile, a defense stacked with talent allowed over 460 yards against a pedestrian Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense. 

    This is a joke!