I've posted a set of five articles dissecting the whole tournament. If you like this one, make sure to check the others out!
South Region
(1) Memphis vs. (16) Texas - Arlington
Memphis is 33 - 1. Texas - Arlington had a losing record in the Southland Conference.
The pick: Memphis
(8) Mississippi State vs. (9) Oregon
This matchup was a head-scratcher for me simply because I don't see how Oregon got a nine seed. Most experts thought they were a bubble team, but this seed indicates that they're a solid team who had no problem getting into the tournament. There must be some big secret to why they're so highly regarded by the selection committee, but I don't get it.
I never stress over the 8/9 games much anyways, as I find myself rarely picking the winner to advance over the top seed in their next game. Mississippi St. posted a better record in a better league, and they played a better schedule. The Bulldogs seem to clearly be the better team, so the Ducks will probably win. But I'll stick with the logical choice.
The pick: Mississippi State
(5) Michigan State vs. (12) Temple
This is where things start getting fun in the South. Historically, these 5/12 games are barnburners, with the #12 pulling an upset 14 times (35 percent) in the past ten years. In that same time frame, 11 seeds have only beat 6 seeds 32 percent of the time. It's hard to quantify whether this really means anything, but maybe it gives the lower seed team an added feeling that they can win.
Michigan State has had a nice season at 25 - 8, beating Texas early in the year and playing UCLA close in route to compiling a 13 - 1 out of conference record. But, the only other tournament team they played outside of the Big Ten was BYU. They're only 6 - 6 since the beginning of February, which certainly raises the question of whether they've already peaked for the season. The Big Ten is a league where teams have to come out prepared for a slugfest in every game, and one has to wonder if the Spartans are simply worn down.
Temple, on the other hand, is 11 - 2 over that same time span. Obviously, they're not playing Big Ten teams, but the A10 put three teams in the field this year and had the team with the highest RPI of bubble teams (Dayton.) The Owls have won seven in a row, including the A10 tournament. Their season seems to be going in the opposite direction of Michigan State's, so the matchup definitely warrants some analysis.
Temple is a team who relies on their guards for the majority of their offensive production; their three leading scorers and top two rebounders are guards. When a team has guards leading the way in rebounding, that should always raise an eyebrow. MSU should look to slow things down and play that classic physical Big Ten style of game; but if this becomes a shootout, the Owls will be right in it until the end.
Anyone who has watched MSU play should know of forward Raymar Morgan; he's their biggest threat and a legit big-time player. He plays with a lot of hustle and is a natural scorer, but he struggled in the Big Ten tournament, shooting 5 - 19 for a combined 15 points in two games. Still, he will demand attention, and the Owls certainly don't have one guy who can take him out of the game. Morgan didn't dominate the Big Ten, scoring 15 a game, but he is a guy that has the potential to spring for 30 on any given night. If the Owls can't figure out some sort of double team or another way to account for the matchup problem, they'll be in trouble.
To me, this is a toss up and I think it will be a good game. But, in recent years, I've developed a system to picking what I believe to be a toss up. Basically what I do is, I consider the possibility that the game might end up being a blowout (which can always happen), and figure out which team could blow the other one out. I can't see Temple running away from MSU by a huge margin, but it wouldn't shock me to see Michigan State just be too much for a guard-based team to handle.
The pick: Michigan State
(4) Pittsburgh vs. (13) Oral Roberts
Over the past three seasons, I have become a huge fan of the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles, despite lacking a regional or personal connection. I was drawn to their story during the 2005 - 2006 season, when they were coming off a season where they won their league in the regular season but lost in the tournament final. They had two great players in Caleb Green and Ken Tutt (who each ended up scoring 2,000 points in their career.) I started tracking their games, watching whatever I could on ESPNU, and bought myself an "ORU Basketball" shirt online. I arbitrarily decided to become the only Oral Roberts fan I know.
That year, they broke through to the NCAA tournament, and were a 16 seed playing Memphis. They held their own, even leading the game in the second half. Last year, senior year for Green and Tutt, they got in as a 14 seed and were leading Washington St at halftime before falling in the end. Even with the loss of their two superstars, they're back with their third conference title in a row. I smell upset!
Their leading scorer is Robert Jarvis, a Juco transfer who comes off the bench. This guy is a ton of fun to watch; he plays with a lot of energy and is a true shooter, in the sense that he is completely fearless. In the conference title game, he went 6 - 17 but hit a three that broke open a deadlock late in the second half. I don't think he has ever seen a shot that he didn't want to take, and if he can get hot then the Golden Eagles will stand toe to toe.
Big man Shawn King is a certifiable presence inside for the Golden Eagles, and has held his own in their previous tournament appearances. He should be able to defend well enough to not let ORU get man-handled.
Pitt is nowhere near a finesse team; they rely on gritty, overpowering play. They made a great run at the Big East title, and I think they will come into this game worn down. From memory, I can recall Maryland in 2004 and Syracuse in 2006 as the most recent teams to make upset runs to win a major conference tournament as a low seed. Both of those teams looked spent in their NCAA tournament appearances. And Pittsburgh, like Syracuse in '06, had to win the Big East by playing four games in four nights. It seems like the success of the conference tournament run has been the peak of this sort of team's season, at least for the teams who have walked Pitt's path in recent years. ORU, on the other hand, has "been there, done that," with their league title, and they should be very well-rested and prepared. I think they're poised for a big win.
The pick: Oral Roberts
(6) Marquette vs. (11) Kentucky
The Wildcats may not be a good team by Kentucky standards, but they're certainly a solid team. Since beating Tennessee in late January, Kentucky is 11 - 3 with wins over three tournament teams. But out of conference, the Wildcats were really bad. This team lost to UAB, Houston, George Washington, and San Diego. Those early season losses quickly put their team in the spotlight and got them labeled as a disappointment. However, they rebounded to have a good conference season.
On the other hand, Marquette has quietly had a very good year. They've been playing consistent basketball all season; they picked up a lot of quality wins in conference and their only out of conference loss was to Duke by four points. They were able to beat Notre Dame by ten points in the Big East tournament, which looks like a really impressive win. I'm sure this is a game that many will agonize over while filling out the brackets; it's hard to pick against a traditional powerhouse, even during a down year.
The pick: Marquette
(3) Stanford vs. (14) Cornell
The Ivy League automatic qualifier is always such a mysterious team; the only people who have seen them play are those that watch ESPNU even when better games are on five other stations on a Sunday afternoon. This team did go 22 - 5, but they're hard to compare to the field. They didn't play many marquee out of conference games, and their lack of a conference tournament keeps them off the radar for a big chunk of the country. I guess their biggest win was over Siena, champions of the MAAC. The best teams they played were Syracuse (lost by 16) and Duke (lost by 14.) I
t is worth noting that the Duke game was the last one they lost, and that was on January 6. There is something to be said for that long of a win streak, but they haven't played anyone. I used to fall victim to picking the Ivy League teams because they're really fun to pull for; they always look so overmatched that it's really hard to root against them.
I don't haven't seen much of Stanford, maybe because I'm on the east coast, but they have had themselves a very impressive season. All of their losses were to tournament teams except an overtime loss at Arizona State, a solid bubble team. Their run at UCLA in the Pac 10 tournament may have been the most exposure they've gotten this year. They definitely looked like a strong team in that game and it looked like they play more of a Washington State bruiser-type style than the flashy UCLA game. If they can execute, I don't see why they wouldn't make it out of this game.
The pick: Stanford
(7) Miami vs. (10) St. Mary's
I've heard a lot of talk about this game, with many people speculating about the chance of a St. Mary's upset. This probably comes from the fact that St. Mary's has hung around the Top 25 all year, while Miami is a team that didn't solidify their tournament position until later in the season. St. Mary's comes in off a loss against San Diego, who won the WCC tournament. But, the game went to overtime and USD had the luxury of playing that tournament on their home floor. Miami won't have that same advantage in Little Rock.
St. Mary's comes in with a better record, and they have had some legit wins. They split their season series with Gonzaga, beat Oregon, Drake, and Cal St. Fullerton (a tournament team), and went on the road to beat Florida State. Besides a loss to Southern Illinois, all of their blemishes were to tournament teams (Texas, Gonzaga, Kent St., and two to San Diego.) This team has played some good teams, and has not built up their record with an easy out of conference schedule. They sort of limped into the tournament, going 2 - 3 in their last give games; but there were no really bad losses in there. Two of those defeats were close games to Kent St. and Gonzaga, teams that are on about the same level as Miami.
These teams beat St. Mary's by winning the battle inside, and this is what Miami is going to try to do. St. Mary's plays an up-tempo style, and Miami is limiting teams to less than 70 points a game for the year. But in the early season, Miami didn't challenge themselves out of conference. Their best win was over VCU, and they lost to Winthrop at home. Then they started 1 - 3 in the ACC, but turned things around to play their way into the dance. But they really got owned by VT in the ACC tourney, and the way they rebound from that loss will say a lot about the team.
It's an interesting matchup, and like so many of these first round games, this one will be decided by whichever team is able to establish their style of play. Whichever team can adjust to their opponent, while asserting their gameplan, should advance to the second round. With all of Miami's big games coming in the ACC, St. Mary's has actually played a more diverse schedule against good teams with a variety of styles.
The pick: St. Mary's
(2) Texas vs. (15) Austin Peay
The Governors, despite that awesome nickname, do not have much of a shot against D.J. Augustin and company. I think Austin Peay will come out and hang for a few minutes. This could actually be one of those games where CBS switches to that live look in, and Gumbel pipes up with "Look what's transpiring in Little Rock..." because Texas is only up by like five points with a few minutes left to go in the first half. Even if this happens, Governors should fall off somewhere around halftime.
I see Texas winning by 20. The only snowball's chance lies in the fact that Austin Peay shoots a ton of threes, and so I guess they could pull a shocker if the stars align and they shoot like 80 perecnt from long distance.
The pick: Texas
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