I don't haven't seen much of Stanford, maybe because I'm on the east coast, but they have had themselves a very impressive season. All of their losses were to tournament teams except an overtime loss at Arizona State, a solid bubble team. Their run at UCLA in the Pac 10 tournament may have been the most exposure they've gotten this year. They definitely looked like a strong team in that game and it looked like they play more of a Washington State bruiser-type style than the flashy UCLA game. If they can execute, I don't see why they wouldn't make it out of this game.
The pick: Stanford
(7) Miami vs. (10) St. Mary's
I've heard a lot of talk about this game, with many people speculating about the chance of a St. Mary's upset. This probably comes from the fact that St. Mary's has hung around the Top 25 all year, while Miami is a team that didn't solidify their tournament position until later in the season. St. Mary's comes in off a loss against San Diego, who won the WCC tournament. But, the game went to overtime and USD had the luxury of playing that tournament on their home floor. Miami won't have that same advantage in Little Rock.
St. Mary's comes in with a better record, and they have had some legit wins. They split their season series with Gonzaga, beat Oregon, Drake, and Cal St. Fullerton (a tournament team), and went on the road to beat Florida State. Besides a loss to Southern Illinois, all of their blemishes were to tournament teams (Texas, Gonzaga, Kent St., and two to San Diego.) This team has played some good teams, and has not built up their record with an easy out of conference schedule. They sort of limped into the tournament, going 2 - 3 in their last give games; but there were no really bad losses in there. Two of those defeats were close games to Kent St. and Gonzaga, teams that are on about the same level as Miami.
These teams beat St. Mary's by winning the battle inside, and this is what Miami is going to try to do. St. Mary's plays an up-tempo style, and Miami is limiting teams to less than 70 points a game for the year. But in the early season, Miami didn't challenge themselves out of conference. Their best win was over VCU, and they lost to Winthrop at home. Then they started 1 - 3 in the ACC, but turned things around to play their way into the dance. But they really got owned by VT in the ACC tourney, and the way they rebound from that loss will say a lot about the team.
It's an interesting matchup, and like so many of these first round games, this one will be decided by whichever team is able to establish their style of play. Whichever team can adjust to their opponent, while asserting their gameplan, should advance to the second round. With all of Miami's big games coming in the ACC, St. Mary's has actually played a more diverse schedule against good teams with a variety of styles.
The pick: St. Mary's
(2) Texas vs. (15) Austin Peay
The Governors, despite that awesome nickname, do not have much of a shot against D.J. Augustin and company. I think Austin Peay will come out and hang for a few minutes. This could actually be one of those games where CBS switches to that live look in, and Gumbel pipes up with "Look what's transpiring in Little Rock..." because Texas is only up by like five points with a few minutes left to go in the first half. Even if this happens, Governors should fall off somewhere around halftime.
I see Texas winning by 20. The only snowball's chance lies in the fact that Austin Peay shoots a ton of threes, and so I guess they could pull a shocker if the stars align and they shoot like 80 perecnt from long distance.
The pick: Texas
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