Detailed NCAA Tourney Picks Analysis: South Region

I've posted a set of five articles dissecting the whole tournament. If you like this one, make sure to check the others out!

South Region

(1) Memphis vs. (16) Texas - Arlington
    

Memphis is 33 - 1. Texas - Arlington had a losing record in the Southland Conference.

The pick: Memphis


(8) Mississippi State vs. (9) Oregon   

This matchup was a head-scratcher for me simply because I don't see how Oregon got a nine seed. Most experts thought they were a bubble team, but this seed indicates that they're a solid team who had no problem getting into the tournament. There must be some big secret to why they're so highly regarded by the selection committee, but I don't get it.

I never stress over the 8/9 games much anyways, as I find myself rarely picking the winner to advance over the top seed in their next game. Mississippi St. posted a better record in a better league, and they played a better schedule. The Bulldogs seem to clearly be the better team, so the Ducks will probably win. But I'll stick with the logical choice.

The pick: Mississippi State


(5) Michigan State vs. (12) Temple

This is where things start getting fun in the South. Historically, these 5/12 games are barnburners, with the #12 pulling an upset 14 times (35 percent) in the past ten years. In that same time frame, 11 seeds have only beat 6 seeds 32 percent of the time. It's hard to quantify whether this really means anything, but maybe it gives the lower seed team an added feeling that they can win.
   

Michigan State has had a nice season at 25 - 8, beating Texas early in the year and playing UCLA close in route to compiling a 13 - 1 out of conference record. But, the only other tournament team they played outside of the Big Ten was BYU. They're only 6 - 6 since the beginning of February, which certainly raises the question of whether they've already peaked for the season. The Big Ten is a league where teams have to come out prepared for a slugfest in every game, and one has to wonder if the Spartans are simply worn down.
   

Temple, on the other hand, is 11 - 2 over that same time span. Obviously, they're not playing Big Ten teams, but the A10 put three teams in the field this year and had the team with the highest RPI of bubble teams (Dayton.) The Owls have won seven in a row, including the A10 tournament. Their season seems to be going in the opposite direction of Michigan State's, so the matchup definitely warrants some analysis.
   

Temple is a team who relies on their guards for the majority of their offensive production; their three leading scorers and top two rebounders are guards. When a team has guards leading the way in rebounding, that should always raise an eyebrow. MSU should look to slow things down and play that classic physical Big Ten style of game; but if this becomes a shootout, the Owls will be right in it until the end.

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