NFL Spreads: Risky Games to Stay Away from in Week 6

Pete SchauerCorrespondent IOctober 12, 2012

SAN FRANCISCO, CA - JANUARY 22:  Ahmad Bradshaw #44 of the New York Giants runs the ball against Carlos Rogers #22 of the San Francisco 49ers during the NFC Championship Game at Candlestick Park on January 22, 2012 in San Francisco, California.  (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Whoever dreamed up the betting lines for Week 6 in the NFL should be punched square in the face.

If you laid down all your cash on favorites this weekend, you might want to rethink that notion after reading this piece.

I'll let you go. You have some thinking to do:


Miami Dolphins (-3.5) vs. St. Louis Rams

Both the Dolphins and Rams are coming off big wins in Week 5, but the Rams' win over the then-undefeated Arizona Cardinals is a lot more impressive in my mind.

Sam Bradford has done his best with an average receiving corp this season, throwing for 1,022 yards with six touchdowns and five interceptions. Although Bradford will be without his man Danny Amendola, Brandon Gibson has done a nice job of stepping in and moving the chains for St. Louis.

One thing that I would like to see from the Rams is for Steven Jackson to get going, but don't expect a huge game from him against the No. 1 rushing defense in the NFL.

Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill still has a lot to learn at the position and with a limited roster of wideouts, I'm taking the Rams in this matchup. 

New York Jets (-3.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts

Can anyone tell me how the Jets are favored over the Colts? Have you seen New York's offense?

Indianapolis is coming off an emotional and improbable win against the Green Bay Packers that saw Andrew Luck and Reggie Wayne go off, yet Mark Sanchez's Jets and his pee wee 48.4 completion percentage are favored?

Give me a break.

It should be Tebow time in New York, yet Rex Ryan is sticking by his starting QB, who has as many interceptions as touchdowns this season.

Granted, New York isn't going anywhere without Darrelle Revis and Santonio Holmes, but Sanchez's quarterback play isn't helping the cause.

I like the connection between Luck and Wayne to come into MetLife Stadium and leave with a win on Sunday.

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) vs. New York Giants

I'm still trying to wrap my mind around the fact that the 49ers are favored by nearly a touchdown against what's really a solid Giants squad.

Based on how these two went at it last season, I don't like the big spread for San Francisco even though it's a home game. Eli Manning proved that he could throw against the Niners' defense in both meetings last season, as he threw for at least 300 yards and two touchdowns in both meetings (to read more about Manning and the Giants' passing attack vs. San Francisco, click here).

I'm still not 100 percent sold on Alex Smith and his NFL-leading 108.7 passer rating. The 49ers keep Smith in a safe offensive scheme, supplying him with a lot of screen passes and dump offs to play it cautious.

The Giants have the skill on the defensive line to keep the 49ers at bay, but it's a matter of if that defense shows up this Sunday. For a team that finished tied for third in the NFL in sacks last season, the G-Men have a mere eight sacks in 2012.

I could be wrong—the 49ers defense still wows me every week—but this game will be a lot closer than the spread indicates and I even like New York to win this game.

*Spreads via Yahoo! Sports

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