Projecting the Field of 65: March 10

Pac-10

Dancing with a hottie: Washington (3), Arizona State (5), UCLA (6), California (8)

Wallflowers: Arizona (9), USC (ninth out), Washington State (11th out)

Arizona picked up an important win over Stanford to break a four-game slide and finish 9-9 in conference.  But with an RPI of 52 and losses to fellow Wallflowers Texas A&M and UNLV, the Wildcats may have to beat Arizona State in the Pac-10’s 4/5 contest.

USC finished strong by sweeping the Oregon schools at home to get to .500 in the league, but with a 2-8 mark against the top 50, the Trojans will have to reach the title game to have a shot at an at-large.

Washington State couldn’t cap off its magical end-of-the-year run with a win at Washington, but the Cougars are still playing well, having defeated UCLA, Arizona and Arizona State in the past three weeks.

Win three games to get to the finals and they’ll be in the conversation.

SEC

Dancing with a hottie: LSU (7), Tennessee (8)

Wallflowers: South Carolina (12), Florida (first out), Auburn (fifth out), Kentucky (twelfth out)

South Carolina is barely hanging onto my final at-large spot.  Despite a 10-6 conference mark, the Gamecocks have just one top 50 win (over No. 49 Florida). USC can’t afford a slip-up in the SEC quarters against Mississippi State or Georgia. 

The Gamecocks might also need to beat LSU in the semis.

Florida kept its head above water by beating Kentucky on Saturday, but a 2-6 mark against the top 50 means the Gators have a lot more work to do. First, they must beat Arkansas.

Then, they play an elimination game against surging Auburn, which has won four straight, including a victory over LSU.

Kentucky’s four-game losing streak has the Wildcats in need of at least a finals appearance to make the Big Dance. In fact, with an RPI of 80, they may need to win the whole thing.

Mid-Majors

Dancing with a hottie: Memphis (3), Xavier (4), Utah (6), BYU (6), Dayton (7), Gonzaga (7), Butler (8)

Wallflowers: Creighton (11), New Mexico (11), Saint Mary’s (11), San Diego State (11), Utah State (12), UNLV (second out), Temple (14th out), Rhode Island (15th out)

Saint Mary’s did not do itself any favors losing by 25 to Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference final Monday night. Even with Patty Mills in the lineup, the Gaels were completely blown out and will now become the most talked about bubble until Sunday.

I still have them in thanks to wins over fellow Wallflowers San Diego State, Utah State, and Providence, but their hold on one of the final spots is very precarious. The problem is for those wins to look better, Saint Mary’s needs those teams to win some games this week, but if they do that, they may take the Gael’s spot.

There’s no question Saint Mary’s needs Utah State to win the WAC. Not only would that make the Gaels’ win look that much better, but it would prevent the Aggies from possibly stealing an at-large.

In the meantime, the team from the WCC will be rooting hard against Florida, Va Tech, Penn State and every other bubble.

With Davidson losing to Charleston in the Southern Conference semis, there is absolutely no way Stephen Curry and the Wildcats deserve an at-large bid. They have one win over the top 100.

Creighton, on the other hand, still has a chance to make the field, despite an early exit from the Missouri Valley tournament. When comparing the final 14 teams I had vying for the last four spots, the Bluejays had the best numbers. 

They have an RPI of 40, an 11-5 record away from home, a 2-2 mark against the top 50 and 10-5 versus the top 100, and they won 11 of their final 12. Creighton also beat New Mexico and Dayton, which both appear to be heading to the NCAA tournament.

I currently have San Diego State in and UNLV out thanks to the Aztecs’ sweep of the Rebels, but that could change when the two schools battle it out a third time in an elimination game Thursday. 

Despite good non-conference wins over Louisville and Arizona, UNLV may need to win a couple of games in the Mountain West tournament because it’s playing at home and it needs to offset terrible losses at TCU and Colorado State.

My brief love affair with Rhode Island ended when the Rams lost at home to No. 145 UMass on Saturday. URI and Temple each need to make the A-10 final to have any shot at an at-large.

Automatic Bids

12 seeds: Siena, Western Kentucky

13 seeds: Northern Iowa, VCU, American, Stephen F. Austin

14 seeds: Weber State, Binghamton, North Dakota State, Buffalo

15 seeds: Robert Morris, Cornell, East Tennessee State, Morgan State

16 seeds: Radford, Morehead State, CalState Northridge, Chattanooga, Alabama State

Jordan Schwartz is Bleacher Report's New York Yankees Community Leader. His book "Memoirs of the Unaccomplished Man"is available at amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, and authorhouse.com.

Jordan can be reached at jordanschwartz2003@yahoo.com

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