Now the real fun begins. With just five days left until Selection Sunday, I will be updating my projections daily as the major conference tournaments determine which are the last few teams in the field of 65.
Congratulations to the schools that have already clinched an automatic bid: Cornell (Ivy), Northern Iowa (MVC), Morehead State (OVC), Radford (Big South), East Tennessee State (A-Sun), Chattanooga (Southern), VCU (CAA), Gonzaga (WCC), and Siena (MAAC).
My last four in are: Creighton, St. Mary’s, San Diego State, and South Carolina
My first four out are: Florida, UNLV, Virginia Tech, and Penn State
Don’t forget to check out the latest Schwach Indicator rankings to see how this new evaluation tool is affecting my projections.
I usually like to break teams down into three categories. "Wallflowers" are bubble teams. Everyone wants to get into the Big Dance, but not all have the guts to ask a girl out onto the dance floor.
Elite teams are safely in the field, "Dancing with a hottie," and in the middle are the schools that are "Dancing with their sister."
But the sisters are all gone now. There’s no gray area anymore. You’re either in or you’re a Wallflower in need of a win or two this week to secure a bid.
ACC
Dancing with a hottie: North Carolina (1 seed), Duke (2), Wake Forest (3), Florida State (4), Clemson (5)
Wallflowers: Boston College (10), Virginia Tech (third out), Maryland (sixth out), Miami (thirteenth out)
BC could’ve locked up a spot if they had just won at NC State last Wednesday, but a loss there dropped the Eagles’ computer numbers (RPI 58, SOS 59), so they might need to beat Virginia in the first round of the ACC tournament to feel completely safe come Sunday.
Va Tech probably needed only one win against Duke, UNC, or FSU, but the Hokies went 0-3 down the stretch to finish league play at 7-9. With triumphs over BC, Wake, and Clemson, they still have a shot, but they must beat Miami Thursday.
A victory over Carolina in the quarters might be needed as well, depending on how the other Wallflowers fare this week.
Maryland really damaged its chances by losing at Virginia last weekend. The Terps have better non-conference wins than Virginia Tech (Michigan State, Michigan), but their only big ACC victory was by three at home against North Carolina and that’s why Maryland will most likely have to beat both NC State and Wake Forest to reach the Dance.
Miami also blew its chance to finish with a .500 record in the ACC when the Hurricanes fell at Georgia Tech.
The 8/9 game against VT is an elimination contest and with just a 2-7 record versus the RPI top 50, Miami will definitely have to beat UNC as well and possibly advance to the finals.
Big East
Dancing with a hottie: Pittsburgh (1), Connecticut (1), Louisville (2), Villanova (4), Syracuse (5), Marquette (6), West Virginia (7)
Wallflowers: Providence (10th out), Cincinnati (16th out), Notre Dame (17th out), Georgetown (18th out)
When I got down to my final four at-large spots, I had 14 teams vying for a bid. I took those bubbles and compared them using statistical information such as overall record, conference record, RPI, SOS, record versus the top 50 and 100, road/neutral record and wins in their last 10 games.
When I crunched the numbers, I found that Providence was last among that group. The win over Syracuse is nice and the victory over Pitt is enormous, but that’s not enough.
With a 2-8 record against the top 50 and an RPI of 71, the Friars must beat Cincinnati or DePaul on Wednesday and Louisville on Thursday.
The situation is the same for Cincinnati, Notre Dame, and Georgetown. Each will have to win four games in four days and advance to the finals of the Big East tournament to have any shot.
Big Ten
Dancing with a hottie: Michigan State (1), Illinois (4), Purdue (5), Ohio State (9)
Wallflowers: Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10), Michigan (10), Penn State (fourth out), Northwestern (seventh out)
The Big Ten tournament will have the biggest impact on the bubble picture. With six teams vying for only four or five spots, it could get ugly. Even uglier than regular Big Ten basketball.
Despite being the higher seed in Friday’s 4/5 game, Wisconsin needs the win more. Ohio State is safe with a 9-9 record versus the top 100 and its worst loss coming at No. 70 Northwestern.
The Badgers, meanwhile, were just 4-9 against the top 50 and lost to No. 112 Iowa. In the end, however, with each team finishing conference play at 10-8, they should both make the Dance.
The 8/9 matchup between Minnesota and Northwestern is an elimination game. The Gophers are definitely in better shape with a 9-9 league mark, eight top-100 wins and an RPI of 41. They wouldn’t have to beat Michigan State in the quarters.
The Wildcats would have to take down Sparty because they missed a golden opportunity to finish .500 in Big Ten play when they lost by five at Ohio State Sunday.
With a 6-10 record versus the top 100 and an RPI of 70, Northwestern needs at least two wins to get in.
Michigan’s win at Minnesota on Saturday was huge. The Wolverines swept the Gophers to finish 9-9 in conference. That combined with out-of-league triumphs over UCLA and Duke means Michigan only has to beat Iowa to go dancing.
Penn State is an interesting case. The Nittany Lions were in after they beat Illinois but then out again after they lost to the Hawkeyes.
A 10-8 record in the Big Ten is good, as are six wins against the top 50, but a non-conference slate that included eight games against sub 200 teams has put a crimp in the Lions’ computer numbers (RPI 63, SOS 82).
A win over Indiana Thursday is a must, but they may also need to beat Purdue in the quarterfinals.
Big XII
Dancing with a hottie: Oklahoma (2), Kansas (2), Missouri (3), Texas (8)
Wallflowers: Oklahoma State (9), Texas A&M (9), Kansas State (eighth out)
I replaced Oklahoma on the top line with Michigan State. The Spartans’ 12-2 record against the top 50 is the best in the country and the Sooners are slipping, losing three of five.
Oklahoma State and Texas A&M are both in pretty good shape after finishing 9-7. First round wins over Iowa State and Texas Tech, respectively, should punch their tickets.
While Kansas State is seeded higher than both of those schools in the Big XII tournament, the Wildcats are lower in my pecking order thanks to an RPI of 76 and the 96th strength of schedule.
They have to hope Texas beats Colorado because they need to beat the Longhorns to improve their resume. KSU may also have to upend Kansas.
6 Comments
Loading more comments...
This comment and all replies have been deleted This comment has been deleted Undo delete