Los Angeles Rams

St. Louis vs. Miami: Betting Odds, Preview, Trends and Pick

CINCINNATI, OH - OCTOBER 07:  Quarterback Ryan Tannehill, #17 of the Miami Dolphins, yells to tight end Anthony Fasano, #80 of the Miami Dolphins before the start of a play against the Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium on October 7, 2012 in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Dolphins won, 17-13. (Photo by Tyler Barrick/Getty Images)
Tyler Barrick/Getty Images
OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistOctober 11, 2012

The Miami Dolphins will be the betting favorite for the first time this season when they host the St. Louis Rams at Sun Life Stadium.

That doesn't mean they will win as many handicappers are picking the Rams to win easily, despite being underdogs of 3.5 points at most sportsbooks, according to OddsShark.com.

"All of the trends point to the Dolphins, but the recent calibre of play points to the Rams winning outright," said Jack Randall, a football analyst at OddsShark.com.

Indeed, the Dolphins are 8-1 in the past nine meetings between these two teams. The betting trends report shows the Rams are 1-11 SU and a bankroll-bleeding 2-10 ATS in their past 12 road games.

Miami’s upset win over Cincinnati last Sunday brought the Dolphins to 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS. But this team could easily be 4-1 SU had a few bounces gone differently in its back-to-back overtime losses to the Arizona Cardinals and New York Jets.

By avoiding turnovers against the Bengals, Miami was able to hold onto its lead and pick up the win.

St. Louis has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2012 season thus far. After going 2-14 SU and 3-12-1 ATS last season, the Rams have already eclipsed those win totals in 2012 with a 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS record.

The players have bought into new head coach Jeff Fisher’s physical play on both sides of the ball, as was on display in the Rams' physically dominant 17-3 win over then-undefeated Arizona. The Rams are allowing just 18.8 points per game this season.

In what appears to be a fairly even matchup, this spread is likely set due to St. Louis’ woeful road record over the last few years. St. Louis is 3-17 SU and 7-13 ATS in its last 20 road games, and 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS in its last 12.

Miami is 5-2 SU and ATS in its last seven games at home. It also doesn’t help the Rams that their best wide receiver, Danny Amendola, is out with a collarbone injury.

The Rams defense has looked solid in both games on the road this year against good offenses in Detroit and Chicago.

Considering that Ryan Tannehill has thrown just two touchdown passes to six interceptions, it seems logical that St. Louis’ pass rush can force him into enough mistakes to make taking the points a solid play.

 

PICK: St. Louis +3.5 (courtesy of PickShark.com)

Mike Pickett is a Contributor for Bleacher Report. Unless otherwise noted, all quotes were obtained firsthand.

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