Can Geno Smith's West Virginia offense and defense cover the spread against a pesky Texas Tech squad in week 7?
Another .500 performance last week as my picks went 2-2 (1-1 Game of the Week).
The Wildcats of Northwestern University stumbled in the fourth quarter, which led to the Nittany Lions cruising past the 'Cats 39-28. Clemson needed a second-half outburst to put the pesky Yellow Jackets of Georgia Tech to bed with a 47-31 victory. The Tigers gained 601 yards as a team en route to the victory.
My Georgia Bulldogs pick was one of the worst calls I made all season. South Carolina slammed the then fifth-ranked team in the nation 35-7. Florida made me look good when their defense held a worn down LSU to just six points en route to a 14-6 victory.
I have found a trend of mine which has hurt my overall record. In 12:00 p.m. games I am 0-4 ATS. From here on out I will not take an early game. After looking at the lines, weather conditions and recent trends, I have found three games I'm confident in taking.
So, ladies and gentlemen, here our my three picks for week seven. As always, best of luck to all.
2012 Record ATS
12-10 (5-1 Game of the Week Pick)
Week 6 Results
Northwestern Wildcats 28 vs. Penn State Nittany Lions 39 (-2.5) Loss
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 31 vs. Clemson Tigers 47 (-10.5) Win
Games of the Week Picks
LSU Tigers 6 vs. Florida Gators 14 (-2.5) Win
Georgia Bulldogs 7 vs. South Carolina Gamecocks 35 (-1) Loss
Date: Saturday, October 13
Time: 6:00 p.m. ET
Current Line: Vanderbilt +8.5
Coming off a huge victory against SEC rival and then top five ranked LSU, the Gators skyrocketed to the No. 4 slot in the NCAA Top 25 this week. The Gators will travel to Nashville, Tennessee to take on a less-than-impressive Commodore team, who has the talent to be a tough contender in the SEC but has struggled early on this season.
Historically, the Gators have not lost to Vanderbilt in nearly a quarter century. The Gators will boast their top 25 ranked defense (17th in passing/rushing yards allowed) against a decent Commodore offense. The key for the Commodores will be stopping the Gators 22nd ranked rushing attack.
Lately, the Commodores defense has been torched by top 25 ranked opposing running backs. The Commodores gave up a combined 507 yards to South Carolina in Week 1 and Georgia in Week 4. The key for the Gators will be their offensive ability in the first half of the game. The Gators have come out cold, but finished strong in the second half numerous times this season. If the Gators can jump out to an early lead, the Commodores will stumble and the Gators should win handily.
Florida 2012 record ATS 4-1. Vanderbilt 2012 record ATS 3-2. Vanderbilt is 1-1 ATS against Florida in the last three years and 11-9 since 1992. In games played at Vanderbilt, the Gators have gone 6-4 ATS since 1992. As an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, Vanderbilt is 2-0.
The Gators defense is easily the most dangerous aspect of the 2012 team. The rushing attack has also been terrific, but their passing attack and inability to catch fire in the first half are scary. Look back at Week 1 when they let Bowling Green hang around. Many people are calling this a "trap game".
It is very possible that Vanderbilt wins this game.
For one, they are at home, which they are 11-5 ATS in the last three seasons. Also, the Commodores have to beat the Gators eventually, right? Last year, the Gators squeezed by with a 26-21 victory. In this year's contest I'm saying the Gators offense clicks in the first half and keeps up a consistent offensive attack throughout the 60 minutes.
Take the Gators.
Florida Gators 34, Vanderbilt Commodores 14
Date: Saturday, October 13
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Current Line: Texas Tech +3.5
The Defenseless Mountaineers will take their momentum to Lubbock, Texas to face the Texas Tech Red Raiders in their first Big 12 matchup. Last week the Mountaineers beat the Longhorns of the University of Texas 48-45. Led by Heisman hopeful Geno Smith, the Mountaineers passing attack is ranked second in the nation while the total offense is ranked third in the nation.
On the other side of the ball is where West Virginia struggles, as they rank 97th in defense and give up 336 yards per game. The key for West Virginia will be their defense, especially against Texas Tech's seventh-ranked passing attack. The same key will be for the Red Raiders.
Whoever has the better defense will ultimately win the game.
West Virginia is 2-3 ATS this season, while Texas Tech is 4-1 ATS this season. West Virgina is 5-2 in the last three seasons while Texas Tech is 2-2.
Last week, West Virginia won and Texas Tech got severely beaten by Oklahoma. Both teams have terrible defenses and great passing attacks. This game is quiet interesting. I'm going to go with Texas Tech this week.
Texas Tech +3.5
West Virginia 56, Texas Tech 55
Date Saturday, October 13
Time 8:00 p.m. ET
Current line LSU -2.5
I'll be honest with everyone right now, I firmly believed that South Carolina was overrated.
But after the beatdown they gave to the then-ranked No 5 Georgia Bulldogs, I am a Gamecock believer. LSU has struggled greatly in recent games.
Last week, the Florida Gators defeated LSU 14-6, which was a heavy blow to the Tigers season. The key for LSU in this game will be their ability to score. The Gamecocks' key will be Connor Shaw. LSU is ranked 77th in total offense while their defense is ranked fourth. The Gamecocks have the 63rd ranked offense and a 12th ranked defense.
South Carolina is 5-1 ATS in 2012 (5-0 in the last five games). LSU is 2-4 ATS this season (0-3 in the last three games). LSU is 3-3 ATS versus Georgia since 1992.
LSU is usually a tough team to beat at home. As much as I like the "mad hatters" Tigers, believe that the Gamecocks will win this matchup of SEC rivals. I made the mistake last week and picked Georgia to beat the Gamecocks for my Game of the Week pick. This time I will not make the same mistake and overlook the Gamecocks.
South Carolina +2.5
South Carolina Gamecocks 28, LSU Tigers 17
All lines are subject to change based on the line movement. All lines are from ScoresandOdds.com.
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