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Boise State will win if and only if it plays like Boise State.
So far this season, the Broncos have been a little bit of a Jekyll and Hyde team. Not so much on defense, although it did have a second half meltdown against New Mexico, but on offense.
There is the Miami Ohio version that ran and threw at will. Then there is the Michigan State version that did not produce. It has been a bit of a roller-coaster ride, to say the least.
However, the last two weeks have been good therapy for Boise State. New Mexico and Southern Miss were just what the doctor ordered.
Joe Southwick looks like he has gained confidence, and Jay Ajayi has emerged as a formidable backup for D.J. Harper.
For Boise State to win on Saturday, it will need to be consistent. That is one of Petersen's favorite words, and it is what his team desperately needs. If Southwick is consistent and doesn't turn the ball over, the Broncos will be in good shape.
However, Fresno State leads the country in taking the ball away, so it will be a challenge.
Harper is usually reliable holding on to the ball, but Ajayi had trouble doing so last week. Both players will need to keep a firm grasp on it Saturday.
Boise State's receivers also need to be more consistent catching the ball. There have been too many uncharacteristic drops this season, and those could cost the Broncos dearly on Saturday.
The Boise State defense will just need to do what it always does. It will need to swarm to the ball, pressure the quarterback, create turnovers and cover well in the secondary. Containing the run will be especially important, as Fresno State running back Robbie Rouse is capable of breaking a big run.
If the Broncos offense is consistent and the defense does what it normally does, Boise State should be in great shape against Fresno State.