You'll find one general theme in this article—all of the favorites I'm advising you lay the points with are all taking to the road this week. And when you see some of these lines, you'll understand why.
The three teams below are also all very good squads who have extremely favorable lines that have been whispering sweet nothings to me this week, so I've decided to pass the message along to you.
From one team talented enough to win a tough divisional matchup to another with enough weapons to overcome one of the NFL's toughest road tests, the following favorites will help you ride chalk all the way to the bank.
(My picks in caps. All lines from Bovada.)
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3) at Cleveland Browns
Two of the last three times these teams have met, the Bengals covered this spread, including in Cleveland last year. The Bengals are coming off of a disappointing loss to the Miami Dolphins, which leads me to believe they'll come out guns blazing in this one.
And while Brandon Weeden has thrown for 1,288 yards after five games, he's also thrown nine interceptions. I really like this line for the Bengals.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-6) at Tennessee Titans
While I think the shorter week actually benefits Tennessee since Troy Polamalu and LaMarr Woodley won't play, the Titans have been so generally miserable this year, I can't take them in this game. Look for Ben Roethlisberger and Rashard Mendenhall to have big games and handle the Titans easily.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-4) at Seattle Seahawks
I really, really wouldn't want to have to play the Patriots right now.
After two straight losses, the Pats put 52 on the Buffalo Bills and 31 on the Denver Broncos. They're likely to have Aaron Hernandez back this week and are done with that silly business of giving Julian Edelman more snaps than Wes Welker.
Oh, and they've scored 30 or more points four times this season.
Which favorite is the best play this week?
Meanwhile, the Seahawks have scored more than 16 points just once this season. Yes, they play excellent defense and have one of the best home-field advantages in football, but you can bet the Patriots won't be taking them for granted after losing to the Arizona Cardinals.
Besides, the physical corners of the Seahawks aren't going to slow down Wes Welker in the slot or the both of New England's dominant tight ends. There are too many weapons to account for and too many potential points to be scored to take the points with Seattle this week.
Lay them with New England and be glad you did.
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