NFL Picks: Late-Breaking Game Day News, Injuries and Winning Picks
Welcome to a different kind of pregame NFL show.
This live blog will cover the late-breaking information leading up to kickoff that will aid in picking winners.
This will prepare you to pick winners in the NFL, with information on injuries, news, starters, stats, trends and more!
No Berman, no Bradshaw—just rock-solid information to kick off NFL Week 5!
That’s it for a busy day of NFL football in week five. Here are my final picks for the week, one more time.
Enjoy the great slate of football games and may all of your bets be winning ones!
As we approach kickoff for Week 5 in the NFL, I am going to add my last pick of the day.
Kansas City +6 over the Baltimore Ravens
The Chiefs are better than they appear and have a running game that is tops in the NFL. That running game will go against a Ravens team that is over hyped. The Ravens are a different team without Suggs and do not pressure the quarterback like they have in the past.
The Ravens struggle getting turnovers which has been the problem with the Chiefs all year long. If the Chiefs don’t turn over the ball, they will win and it all starts with an impressive win over Baltimore.
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) October 7, 2012
Late line moves are common place just before kickoff in the NFL.
Line moves are propelled by big money coming in one team over another. This could also be a sign of wise guy money and that is exactly the case in the game between the Seahawks and the Panthers.
The NFL Odds now have the Panthers listed as (-1.5) point favorites, down from 3 points earlier today. That is a sign big money is coming in on Seattle.
— Johnny Detroit (@Johnny_Detroit) October 7, 2012
Glad I got Seattle +3 when it was available.
The last minute reports of inactive players for Week 5 are starting to trickle out. Not anything that has not been reported earlier in the week.
Although it was interesting to read that Dwight Freeney will be back in the lineup for the Colts. This could provide the Colts with a pass rush to pressure Aaron Rodgers.
The Colts +7 are starting to look like a very attractive option as a live underdog playing with emotion.<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Dwight Freeney is active and will start. Suffered ankle injury week 1 vs. Bears. Coby Fleener is active for #Colts as well.
— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) October 7, 2012
This could be the last stand for the Kansas City Chiefs as the fans are starting to get restless. Brady Quinn is warming up and although Matt Cassel will start if he has another bad performance he may not last the entire game.
The Chiefs are last in turnover ratio in the NFL and most of the blame can be attributed to the play at quarterback. If Cassel starts slow and the Chiefs lose a change will have to happen.
The fans (or at least one fan with a plane) are expressing their opinion on the current state of the team.
A plane flying above Arrowhead carrying message: "KC deserves better. Fire Pioli. Bench Cassel." Chiefs fans not a happy bunch these days.
— Jeff Zrebiec (@jeffzrebiecsun) October 7, 2012
Time for another pick and if you are keeping track, here is who I have so far.
Adding the Dolphins +3.5
The run information that I have uncovered today is enough, but the Dolphins may actually be the better team. While Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III deserve the hype, how come Ryan Tannehill is getting overlooked?
Tannehill is off a great game passing and he has chemistry with his receivers as the he quickly matures.
Tannehill will get protection today because the Dolphins will establish the run and that will allow him to have a bigger day than Andy Dalton.
For one day Ryan Tannehill will get more attention than his wife.
Okay maybe not.
I will take the Dolphins +3.5
NFL trends can play a big role in picking winners on Sunday. Here are a few that stand out on the Week 5 schedule.
The Dolphins are 22-5 against the spread (ATS) in their last 27 road games when playing a team with a winning home record
The Broncos are 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
The Giants are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Although Michael Vick gets more criticism than credit for his play, this interesting stat is very revealing.
Eagles Michael Vick has 18-6-1 record as starting QB vs. AFC teams in his career – including 1-0-1 against the Steelers
— Ben Maller (@benmaller) October 7, 2012
ESPN Radio is reporting that Aaron Hernandez the tight end for the New England Patriots may be available.Hernandez is a crucial part of one of the deadliest offenses in the NFL.
Nothing is solid yet but I will be watching the line for movement. If he is back in the lineup, it should go up.
The quarterbacks get all of the attention, but maybe it’s the running backs that should get a nod.
Six of the seven teams that lead the NFL in rushing are underdogs today.
The Chiefs are the top team in the NFL in rushing and they are underdogs against Baltimore. The Redskins are second in rushing and are getting points against Atlanta. The Bills are No. 4 in rushing the rock and they are big dogs on the road against the 49ers (who are No. 3 in rushing). The Dolphins are No. 5 in rushing the football and are rod dogs against the Bengals and the Seahawks are No. 6 in rushing and are underdogs at Carolina.
Finally, the Eagles are No. 7 in the league in rushing and are underdogs at Pittsburgh.
Why is this important? This stat should sum it up.
Its a passing league??? Teams that lead games in rushing attempts and rushing yards have won @ an 80% clip this season!
— mark schlereth (@markschlereth) October 7, 2012
In the snoozer of the day the Cleveland Browns will travel east to play the New York Giants. The Giants should dismantle the Cleveland Browns, but what Browns team will show up?
The one that kept it somewhat respectable against the Baltimore Ravens or the one that was beaten by double-digits at Buffalo?
The Giants are (-9.5) point favorites and it is interesting to note that the Browns are losing by an average of just eight points per game. They also lost by just one point to the Eagles who beat the Giants.
I am not brave enough to take the Browns and won’t drop the points with the Giants. For those that are brave enough to take this game or even watch it, here is a quick weather report.
It's 53 and overcast with light winds at the Meadowlands. Forecast calls for rain starting around noon, continuing through first half. #NYG— Ralph Vacchiano (@RVacchianoNYDN) October 7, 2012
Leading up to kickoff it is interesting to see all of the interesting last minute stats that can be found.
Here is an interesting nugget of information that I found for the Bears vs. Jaguars game.
The Jags are 24-9 at home against NFC teams, but they’ve been outscored so far at home this year by a pair of AFC teams, 54-17.
The Bears are off a short week after winning a big Monday Night football game and the Jags are off an embarrassing loss to the Bengals. That is one reason that I am on the Jaguars +5.5 for my third pick of the days.
It helps that the Bears are a favorite pick in the latest NFL Consensus.
Here are more interesting facts for Week 5.
One interesting fact per game, for Week Five wp.me/p14QSB-5IJU— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) October 7, 2012
Now on to my second NFL picks of the day.
Seattle +3 over the Panthers.
My preseason prediction that the Panthers would not make the playoffs looks great as the Panthers are looking bad to start the season. (Great, I just stopped getting hate mail from Panthers fans)
The Seahawks are the better team on offense, defense, and special teams. Marshawn Lynch is running like he did against the Saints in the playoffs. This guy will have a field day against a Panthers team that cannot stop the run.
Seattle won’t need the points they will win this game on the field.
On another note it is nice to see that Kurt Warner agrees with my lock of the week.
The game getting the most attention today on the NFL schedule has to be the game between the New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos.
The Denver Post has a quick preview of all areas.
The rivalry between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning has been fun to watch over the years as they have competed in some great games. That is why it is interesting to see that the football odds have the Patriots listed as (-6.5) point favorites.
That is the definition of a stinky line.
The Colts will be playing with a lot of emotion today as they will be with coach Chuck Pagano.
It was reported earlier in the week that Pagano would be out indefinitely because of leukemia, the Colts went back to work.
Since then Pagano has emailed the team and the Colts have launched a campaign to support their coach. #CHUCKSTRONG
This will be a true test for a young Colts team led by a rookie quarterback. Andrew Luck will have to get his team ready and battle against a talented team in the Green Bay Packers. I am not making a play on this game, but I certainly am rooting for Chuck Pagano.
It would not be an NFL Sunday if I did not put my NFL picks out on the record.
My best early bet is so good I called it my NFL Lock of the Week.
(For those of you that don’t know, gamblers hate the word “lock” and think it doesn’t exist and it often is a big jinx. Let the hate mail come on in!)
Now that I have the lock disclaimer out of the way my lock of the week is the Titans +5.
Vikings are getting some love for the quick start, but the Titans played some tough opposition and CJ is running again. This game will be close and the Vikes could easily lose, so the points look great!
Twitter is great for NFL Game day, it lets you get into the deep thoughts and extreme focus that players have leading up to kickoff.
It gives the players an avenue to express their emotions and preparation techniques as they get ready to head into battle.
Or it allows them to scream like maniacs. Thanks Reggie Bush.
Game day! I'm FOCUSED MAAAAANNNNNN!— Reggie Bush (@reggie_bush) October 7, 2012
Bengals do allow over five yards per carry so that could be reason enough to get excited and to take the Dolphins +3.5 points in this game.
Do you look at referees when picking winners in the NFL? I am not talking about being mesmerized by Ed Hochuli’s gun show, but what teams get penalized the most.
NFL's least penalized team (Falcons, 114 yards) goes against most penalized (Redskins, 356 yards).
— Ben Maller (@benmaller) October 7, 2012
When picking winner against the spread (ATS) in the NFL it is important to figure out who the public is betting on.
Let’s face it Joe Public loses more than they win so it’s best to avoid their picks. The NFL Consensus for Week 5 is showing that the top public bets are the Chicago Bears (84 percent) and the Atlanta Falcons (87 percent).
It is no surprise that both of these teams made my list of potential upsets.
Andy Dalton is having a decent second-year under center for the Cincinnati Bengals and today he will face off against the Bengals.
Here is a quick preview of both sides of Bengals vs. Dolphins.
The Dolphins are underrated this year. Not many people realize that the Miami Dolphins are first in the NFL in rushing defense (YPG) at 56.8 per game.
What is the duplicate article?
Why is this article offensive?
Where is this article plagiarized from?
Why is this article poorly edited?