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Last week I posted a 3-2 record and will try to continue my winning ways this week.
The first angle to notice when trying to pick an upset is the win/loss record.
In the NFL the win/loss record can be deceiving and does not always tell the entire story.
This is the case with the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs host the Baltimore Ravens this week and they are only 1-3 on the season, but that can be deceiving.
The Chiefs have actually out-gained their opponent in every game this year, but they are being killed by the turnovers. The Chiefs rank dead last in the NFL in turnover ratio, and if not for that would have a winning record.
The Ravens have a fearsome defense on paper, but this year they are not getting it done on the field. The Ravens are just 23rd overall in total defense and 23rd in interceptions.
The Chiefs will be able to take care of the ball and have a realistic chance of winning this game, which makes the Chiefs one of my best NFL picks for Week 5.
Kansas City +6.5